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Chris Herndon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Chris Herndon


#30 Tight End

60 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 253
40 Time: 4.78

Weekly Outlook

Week 19 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Herndon began his career with a promising 39-502-4 line.
  • Noted upside-crusher Adam Gase arrived the next season and stuck until the end of the 2020 season.
  • Herndon, however, missed all but 1 game in 2019 with a suspension and injuries to his hamstring and ribs.
  • In 2020, Herndon rebounded to play in 16 games. Yet he went just 31-287-3 on a 9.7% target share. Jamison Crowder (12 games), Breshad Perriman (12 games) and Braxton Berrios (16 games) all saw more targets.
  • Herndon fell shy of 8 PPR points in 9 games. He topped 5 targets only twice (Week 1 and Week 17).
  • He posted a 70.5% catch rate, but his 13.9% drop rate says it should have been better. Herndon’s drop rate was just 4.9% during the strong 2018.
  • Playing alongside a bad O-line, Herndon’s average depth of target was only 7.1 yards (vs. 10.6 in ’18). Hence the 9.3 YPC figure.
  • Among 34 TEs with 40+ targets, Herndon ranked 33rd in yards per route run (0.87).
  • Fortunately, Herndon’s 2021 setup looks much more promising. 1st-time OC Mike LaFleur has followed Kyle Shanahan from Cleveland to Atlanta to San Francisco since 2014. He should bring Shanahan principles to New York.
  • Pre-snap motion, play-action passing and just an overall upgrade in scheme fuel some hope for a Herndon rebound.
  • Despite the new coaching staff, the only notable offseason arrivals at TE include veteran Tyler Kroft (22 catches over the past 3 years) and rookie UDFA Kenny Yeboah.
  • Herndon clearly projects as the snap and target leader among the TE group. But efficiency will be critical with the Jets WR corps turning up Jamison Crowder, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims. We’ll see if Crowder is a summer cut due to a bloated contract.
  • 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson will step into the starting role immediately. He projects as a day 1 upgrade on Sam Darnold, but the 22-year-old (in August) simply brings a ton of unknown.
  • Wilson enjoyed a huge 2020 at BYU, showing pin-point accuracy and an ability to make high-level throws. But the jump in competition will be substantial.

DS Bottom Line:

Herndon, only 25, has some bounce-back appeal in the Jets’ new-look offense. His target ceiling isn’t high, but remember the volume threshold for fantasy TEs to excel is lower. Herndon — projected for a decent 71 targets — has the size and athleticism to become an efficient pass catcher.

Going at the end of most drafts, Herndon is a TE2 stash and a likely in-season spot starter.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Jets have traded TE Chris Herndon to the Vikings for "draft pick compensation," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That likely means a Day 3 pick, perhaps conditional. More importantly, it means Herndon enters the mix for a team that just lost Irv Smith to meniscus surgery and has been operating for a while without Tyler Conklin (hamstring). Conklin told reporters Monday that he's "feeling really good" and that the injury was "very minor in the first place," according to the team website. He has yet to return to practice but says he'll be ready for Week 1. We should learn more about Smith's return timeline after his surgery this week. Herndon, meanwhile, became expendable with a lackluster training camp and preseason for a Jets offense with nothing else exciting at TE. If Conklin is ready for the opener, we'd still bet on him as the team's initial leader at the position. We'll see whether Herndon can rebound with a new team. He remains a dynasty stash at least. Herndon's departure from the Jets also positions Tyler Kroft as the #1 TE there.

Update: The Vikings sent a 4th-round pick to New York in exchange for Herndon and a 6th-rounder.

View all Chris Herndon Shark Bites »

Jets TE Chris Herndon opened training camp with the 2nd-team offense, according to multiple reports. It was TE Tyler Kroft working with the starters. This isn't a big surprise if you were paying attention to OTAs and minicamp, when Herndon was reportedly out-played by both Kroft and TE Ryan Griffin. At this point, Herndon is only draftable at the tail end of deep best-ball drafts. We'll see if he can turn things around over the next month.

View all Chris Herndon Shark Bites »

Jets TE Chris Herndon "failed to separate himself" from the rest of the team's TEs in OTAs and minicamp, according to The Athletic's Connor Hughes. In fact, Hughes says that both Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin looked better and have worked ahead of Herndon lately. We're still over 2 months away from Week 1, so the situation is far from settled. But it's not the report you were looking for if hoping for a bounce-back season from Herndon. We'll see if he can turn it around in August.

View all Chris Herndon Shark Bites »

The New York Daily News' Charles McDonald believes Jets TE Chris Herndon will be "a huge piece" of the offense after watching the last few days of practice. He "very well might be their most talented offensive player" and "just might be [QB Sam] Darnold’s favorite target," McDonald writes. Herndon has drawn praise from multiple beat writers and his HC this week, reportedly dominating in training camp. There's certainly room for him to finish 2nd on this team in targets, with Jamison Crowder the only established WR.

View all Chris Herndon Shark Bites »

Jets HC Adam Gase raved about TE Chris Herndon after Sunday's practice. "It’s rare to have a guy with the ability to be as effective as a pass catcher and a guy that’s explosive when he gets the ball in his hands, and still be an on-the-line tight end that can block in the run game and also pass protect," Gase said. Herndon lined up at TE, in the slot and even out wide on Sunday, according to The New York Daily News' Charles McDonald. Herndon's 2019 campaign was wiped out by injuries, but he flashed in a big way with a 39-502-4 line as a rookie. Only 9 rookie TEs have tallied more yards over the past 10 seasons -- and that list includes Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle and Mark Andrews. Herndon is a nice late-round target in fantasy drafts.

View all Chris Herndon Shark Bites »

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