Courtland Sutton Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Sutton caught 74 balls on 125 targets for 1,017 yards and 7 TDs across 17 games last year, finishing WR10 in total PPR points and WR22 in PPR points per game.

He delivered four top-12 weekly finishes and nine top-24 finishes. He only had three weeks outside the top 36.

Usage & Role

Sutton’s 19.6% target share led the team in 2025. That marked a slight decrease from 2024, but stayed in line with Payton’s offenses in Denver:

• 2023: 18.5%
• 2024: 23.3%
• 2025: 19.6%

The offense’s pace and pass volume helped keep Sutton’s targets per game close to his 2024 rate:

• 2023: 5.6
• 2024: 7.8
• 2025: 7.1

Denver used Sutton primarily as a downfield boundary receiver. His 13.3-yard average depth of target ranked 15th among 76 qualifying WRs, while his 35.6% air-yards share ranked ninth.

Sutton rarely left the field, registering a 94.4% route rate and 629 total routes, third-most among WRs.

He also remained one of the league’s most active contested-catch receivers, hauling in 17 contested catches on 32 contested targets. Both marks ranked top-8 among WRs.

Efficiency & Regression

Sutton’s fantasy production almost perfectly matched expectation last season. He finished WR22 in both PPR points per game and expected points per game.

After an outlier 2023, Sutton’s TD rate has settled much closer to expectation the past two seasons:

• 2023: 16.9% actual TD rate vs. 11.9% expected
• 2024: 9.9% actual vs. 12.0% expected
• 2025: 9.5% actual vs. 9.9% expected

The efficiency metrics were solid but unspectacular. Sutton ranked:

• 30th in PFF receiving grade
• 35th in yards per route run
• 34th in targets per route run

He also continued to struggle creating separation. Sutton ranked 72nd in separation score and 62nd in yards after catch per reception.

Offensive Context

Denver supported fantasy passing production last year. The Broncos ranked:

• Third in plays per game
• Ninth in pass rate
• 10th in pass rate over expected
• 13th in passing yards per game

QB Bo Nix attempted a league-high 612 passes and finished eighth in passing yards.

That volume helped Sutton top 1,000 yards as the lead receiver in the league's highest-volume passing offense.

Projected Role & Competition

Sutton should remain Denver’s top perimeter WR and primary downfield target in 2026, but he’ll face stiffer target competition in 2026.

The Broncos traded first- and third-round picks to acquire Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins. Waddle gives the offense another explosive playmaker. He finished 2025 with 64 catches, 910 yards, and 6 TDs while ranking 12th among WRs in PFF receiving grade.

Waddle figures to command significant volume after posting a 22.9% target share and ranking top-16 among WRs in both yards per route run and targets per route run last year.

They also return young WR depth in Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Pat Bryant.

Evan Engram projects for a meaningful underneath role after seeing 77 targets in 16 games last season.

Sutton looks likely to cede the No. 1 WR role to Waddle, which would make another 120+ targets tougher to reach.

Supporting Cast

QB Bo Nix finished last season:

• 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game
• First in pass attempts
• Eighth in passing yards
• Ninth in passing TDs

The efficiency still needs work. Nix ranked 32nd in yards per attempt and 30th in completion percentage over expected.

But Denver’s pass volume and pace should still create weekly target opportunities here.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Sean Payton has consistently built fantasy-friendly offenses throughout his coaching career, including in Denver.

Payton has shifted the Broncos toward a faster, more pass-leaning over the last three seasons:

Even with Dobbins healthy through the first 10 weeks, Denver still leaned pass-heavy:

• 57.2% pass rate
• 57.6% neutral pass rate
• +4.0% pass rate over expected

Payton’s history suggests Denver could continue trending further toward the pass and a faster pace in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

We likely saw Sutton near his ceiling last year at WR22 in PPR points per game. To get back there, he probably needs to stay ahead of Waddle as Denver’s No. 1 WR and repeat something close to his top-12 finish in targets, receiving yards, and TDs.

Risk Factors

Sutton’s target share peaked in 2024:

• 2023: 18.5%
• 2024: 23.3%
• 2025: 19.6%

Now, Denver has a significantly better pass catcher opposite Sutton than it did a year ago in Waddle. He could see his targets, receiving yards, and TDs decline with Waddle siphoning production.

That target share is at risk of declining further, which could push Sutton into low-end WR3 territory.