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Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsCourtland Sutton's Basic Stats

Courtland Sutton
ADP: 8.12
Bye: 9
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 216
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 105.40
SPARQx (Rank): 118.00 (85%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.40 (57%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.68 (97%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.31 (91%)

Courtland Sutton's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 51.4 0.4 7.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 55.9 0.4 7.7

Courtland Sutton's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#38 Wide Receiver

123.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
8.12 65.4 894.6 5.6 2.2 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsCourtland Sutton's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Outside of his 2019 sophomore season, Sutton has not finished better than 40th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Jerry Jeudy is back after out-performing Sutton last year, and the Broncos added Marvin Mims in Round 2 of the draft.

The whole group will be operating in a new offense under HC Sean Payton. And QB Russell Wilson is a major question mark after an ugly 2022.

It all leaves Sutton in a precarious position heading into 2023. He looks like a WR4 at best.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Sutton went down with a hamstring injury in Week 13 and missed the following two games.
  • In 14 healthy games, he compiled 64 catches, 829 yards, and 2 TDs.
  • His scoring averages in those games ranked 40th among WRs in PPR points and 41st in half-PPR.
  • Sutton finished as a top-20 PPR WR in three straight games from weeks two to four. He didn’t finish better than WR25 in any of his other 11 healthy games.
  • In their 10 healthy games together, Jerry Jeudy out-targeted Sutton 75 to 71.
  • Jeudy also beat Sutton last year in yards per target (9.7 to 7.6), yards per route run (2.18 to 1.55) and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.9 to 69.7).
  • Sutton’s PFF receiving grade has now sunk each season since 2019. Last year’s mark ranked 44th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Sutton ranked 41st among those 80 WRs in yards per route run.
  • Here are Sutton’s career finishes in PPR points per game, omitting his 2020 that was wiped out by a torn ACL:
    • 2018: 75th
    • 2019: 29th
    • 2021: 71st
    • 2022: 40th

What to Expect in 2023
  • Sutton will be working in a new offense this season after the Broncos canned HC Nathaniel Hackett and swung a trade for HC Sean Payton. That should be an upgrade after Hackett’s disastrous 2022 showing.
  • QB Russell Wilson is the biggest question mark in this offense. He’s coming off career lows in completion rate (60.5%) and Pro Football Focus passing grade and turns 35 in November.
  • Jerry Jeudy returns for the 2023 campaign. And the Broncos added WR Marvin Mims in the second round of this spring’s draft and signed WR Marquez Callaway, who played for Payton in New Orleans in 2020 and 2021.
  • Sutton should open the season as a top-2 WR in Denver but will need to hold off Mims throughout the season.
  • He should be in for some positive TD regression after scoring on just four of 122 catches over the past two seasons. That’s a 3.3% TD rate – well-below the league-wide WR average of 7.5%.

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Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

6:55am EDT 9/18/23

Jerry Jeudy disappoints in season debut

Returning from a hamstring injury, Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy caught 3 balls for 25 yards in Week 2. His 85.7% route rate was fine, but it produced only 5 targets (a 15.6% team share). Courtland Sutton led the team in targets (7) and catches (5). Escaping this one without a setback, Jeudy should creep closer to 100% for Sunday’s showdown in Miami.

View all Jerry Jeudy Shark Bites »

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) is officially inactive for today’s game vs. the Raiders. He got in three limited practices this week, so he should have a good chance of making his 2023 debut in Week 2. Jeudy’s absence today leaves Courtland Sutton and rookie Marvin Mims as Denver’s top two WRs.

View all Jerry Jeudy Shark Bites »

Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) is not expected to play vs. the Raiders today, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Jeudy got in three limited practices this week and should have a good chance to play Week 2. His absence today leaves Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims as Denver's top two WRs. TE Greg Dulcich could also pick up extra routes and targets with Jeudy out.

View all Jerry Jeudy Shark Bites »

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has "consistently been quarterback Russell Wilson’s top target in training camp," The Athletic's Nick Kosmider writes. "He is fully healthy and has demonstrated more explosiveness than in any training camp since 2020, when he was dominant in practices leading up to his ACL injury." Kosmider adds that HC Sean Payton believes that Sutton can "thrive as an outside receiver in his system." Jerry Jeudy was Denver's best WR by basically any metric last season. But it's worth noting that the target split between Jeudy and Sutton was relatively close -- 69 to 61 in favor of Jeudy in their nine healthy games together. Jeudy sits well ahead of Sutton in our 2023 fantasy football rankings. But Sutton could certainly prove to be a value at his WR40 ADP.

View all Courtland Sutton Shark Bites »

NFL Network's James Palmer had "multiple people" in the Broncos organization tell him that Tim Patrick is "the best football player in that WR room." That WR room also includes Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and second-round rookie Marvin Mims. QB Russell Wilson felt most comfortable throwing to Patrick last offseason, per Palmer. And the belief (hope?) is that Patrick's August torn ACL played a big part in Wilson's ugly 2022 season. Patrick is on track to be ready for Week 1, which is good news for Wilson. But it's tough to see Patrick emerging as a reliable fantasy option barring an injury to Jeudy or Sutton. Patrick is at least worth considering near the end of best-ball drafts.

View all Tim Patrick Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN
Dynasty MVP 85.4
Position Rank #86 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
291
447
700
Dynasty Write-up
In 2022, Sutton had no chance of rebounding alongside massive bust Russell Wilson. Given his contract, Wilson should remain Denver’s QB for the foreseeable future. Sutton has three years left on his current deal.
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