Bottom Line

Outside of his 2019 sophomore season, Sutton has not finished better than 40th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Jerry Jeudy is back after out-performing Sutton last year, and the Broncos added Marvin Mims in Round 2 of the draft.

The whole group will be operating in a new offense under HC Sean Payton. And QB Russell Wilson is a major question mark after an ugly 2022.

It all leaves Sutton in a precarious position heading into 2023. He looks like a WR4 at best.

What We Learned Last Year

• Sutton went down with a hamstring injury in Week 13 and missed the following two games.
• In 14 healthy games, he compiled 64 catches, 829 yards, and 2 TDs.
• His scoring averages in those games ranked 40th among WRs in PPR points and 41st in half-PPR.
• Sutton finished as a top-20 PPR WR in three straight games from weeks two to four. He didn’t finish better than WR25 in any of his other 11 healthy games.
• In their 10 healthy games together, Jerry Jeudy out-targeted Sutton 75 to 71.
• Jeudy also beat Sutton last year in yards per target (9.7 to 7.6), yards per route run (2.18 to 1.55) and Pro Football Focus receiving grade (77.9 to 69.7).
• Sutton’s PFF receiving grade has now sunk each season since 2019. Last year’s mark ranked 44th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
• Sutton ranked 41st among those 80 WRs in yards per route run.
• Here are Sutton’s career finishes in PPR points per game, omitting his 2020 that was wiped out by a torn ACL:
  • 2018: 75th
  • 2019: 29th
  • 2021: 71st
  • 2022: 40th

What to Expect in 2023

• Sutton will be working in a new offense this season after the Broncos canned HC Nathaniel Hackett and swung a trade for HC Sean Payton. That should be an upgrade after Hackett’s disastrous 2022 showing.
• QB Russell Wilson is the biggest question mark in this offense. He’s coming off career lows in completion rate (60.5%) and Pro Football Focus passing grade and turns 35 in November.
• Jerry Jeudy returns for the 2023 campaign. And the Broncos added WR Marvin Mims in the second round of this spring’s draft and signed WR Marquez Callaway, who played for Payton in New Orleans in 2020 and 2021.
• Sutton should open the season as a top-2 WR in Denver but will need to hold off Mims throughout the season.
• He should be in for some positive TD regression after scoring on just four of 122 catches over the past two seasons. That’s a 3.3% TD rate – well-below the league-wide WR average of 7.5%.