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Drew Lock - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Drew Lock
DEN

QB DEN

#36 Quarterback

97 Projected Points

ADP: 21.9
Bye: 11
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.69

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#36 Quarterback

97 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
21.9 103/172 1204 7 5 86

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

77.6

DS Projection

97

Consensus

38 other sites
292.5

High Ceiling

184.3

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Lock started the final 5 games of his 2019 rookie season, averaging 204 yards, 1.4 TDs and .6 INTs per game on a 64.1% completion rate and 6.5 yards per attempt.
    • One of those games was a big 309-yard, 3-TD effort vs. the Texans. Lock didn’t top 208 yards or 6.3 yards per attempt in any of the other 4.
    • Over those 5 weeks, Lock ranked 27th among 32 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grades.
  • Lock started and played 12 full games last year. In those, he averaged 243 yards, 1.3 TDs and 1.2 INTs per game on a 57.8% completion rate and 6.7 yards per attempt.
    • His fantasy-scoring average in those games ranked 25th among QBs. He scored at a QB1 level in 3 of those 12 outings.
    • Lock ranked 28th in PFF passing grade among 32 qualifiers last year -- although his grade did improve from 2019 to 2020.
  • Lock sprained his right thumb as a rookie and missed 2 games last year with a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. He also suffered a rib injury last year and missed another game after landing on the COVID list as a close contact.
  • Denver traded a 6th-round pick for QB Teddy Bridgewater in April. They’re reportedly interested in QB Aaron Rodgers (duh), but they passed on QBs in this year’s draft. They notably had a shot at Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones at pick #9.
  • Barring a trade for Rodgers, Lock and Bridgewater will battle for the starting job this summer. HC Vic Fangio said those 2 will split reps “50/50” in training camp.
  • Bridgewater has been more efficient than Lock through this point in their careers, with a 66.5% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt vs. Lock’s 59.1% and 6.6.
  • Bridgewater beat Lock in PFF passing grade each of the past 2 years.
  • Lock is still capable of taking a step forward. He’s just 24 with 17 NFL games under his belt. He worked with Peyton Manning this offseason to put together an extensive workout plan that included multiple throwing sessions, film sessions and footwork refinement.
  • If Lock wins the starting job, he’ll be working with a strong group of pass-catchers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and K.J. Hamler.
  • Lock has also averaged 13.6 rushing yards in his 17 full games. That’s a full-season pace of 218 yards that would have ranked 15th among QBs last year.
  • OC Pat Shurmur returns for his 2nd season with the Broncos in 2021.
    • The 2020 Broncos ranked 19th in pass attempts and 20th in pass rate.
    • Shurmur has tended to be a pass-leaning play caller, with 9 of his previous 11 NFL offenses finishing top 16 in pass attempts.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Lock has not been good through 2 NFL seasons -- in real life or fantasy football.

The only move Denver made at QB this offseason, though, was adding Teddy Bridgewater. That tells us they’re still holding out hope for Lock but wanted a viable backup plan in case he doesn’t take a step forward in 2021.

Lock and Bridgewater will duke it out for the starting job this summer. If Lock wins it, he’ll carry some fantasy intrigue thanks to Denver’s strong group of pass-catchers and some rushing ability.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Broncos are giving 1st reps to QB Drew Lock as training camp begins. But it doesn’t sound like we should read too much into that. "We have these first four days. Everything was 50-50 in OTA. We will take look after the first off day. Then maybe do a day where one gets 70 and the other 30 reps,” Fangio said, according to Troy Renck. “It's going to be 50-50." Expect an even split early. We’ll look for signs that either Lock or Teddy Bridgewater is taking the lead in their competition.

View all Drew Lock Shark Bites »

Broncos QB Drew Lock worked with Peyton Manning to put together an extensive offseason workout plan that includes multiple throwing sessions, footwork work and film sessions every day, according to NFL Network's James Palmer. 2021 feels like a make-or-break year for Lock after 2 mostly disappointing seasons to start his NFL career. Denver made a cheap trade for QB Teddy Bridgewater this offseason but didn't add a QB in the draft, so the door remains wide open for Lock to be the 2021 starter. And he certainly has the weapons to be a fantasy factor. We'll monitor the Lock vs. Bridgewater battle all summer.

View all Drew Lock Shark Bites »

Broncos QBs Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles have tested negative for COVID and been cleared to return to the team. Lock will be back under center for Sunday night's game against the Chiefs. That puts guys like WR Jerry Jeudy and TE Noah Fant back in play for Week 12 fantasy lineups.

View all Drew Lock Shark Bites »

Broncos QBs Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Blake Bortles and Jeff Driskel are all ineligible to play against the Saints on Sunday due to COVID contract tracing concerns to Driskel, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. We'll see whether this game gets played tomorrow -- and what the hell Denver does on offense if it does. Insider Mike Klis throws out Kendall Hinton as an option at QB. He's on Denver's practice squad as a WR but was a 3-year starting QB at Wake Forest. This is a mess and you should try to avoid all Broncos in Week 12 fantasy lineups.

View all Drew Lock Shark Bites »

Broncos QB Drew Lock (ribs) is active for today’s game against the Dolphins. We’re not expecting the rib injury to be a factor — but Lock is a low-end QB2 vs. a tough Miami pass defense.

View all Drew Lock Shark Bites »

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