Sam Darnold - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

J.J. McCarthy is clearly the QB of the “future,” but that future won't start until at least 2025 after his mid-August meniscus repair. That likely leaves Darnold as the full-season starter, unless he gets hurt or reverts to truly dreadful play. Barring that, he's interesting as a later superflex option and cheap DFS play.

What We Learned Last Year

• Darnold’s not as good as Brock Purdy. That’s not really a knock on him. He just clearly wasn’t ever competing for the top job there. He’s probably better than Trey Lance, though. The 49ers let Darnold finish his contract.
• Darnold started just one game for San Francisco, throwing for 189 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs in a meaningless regular-season finale.
• He started 17 games for Carolina over the previous two seasons and was … not good enough.
  • Darnold completed just 59.5% of his passes there, right about his career average.
  • He posted a 2.9% TD rate, below his career average.
  • And he averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt, right on his career average.
  • Darnold did earn a career-high Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2022. That was good for 27th among 48 QBs who dropped back at least 100 times.

What to Expect in 2024

• Darnold hasn’t been good through his six NFL seasons. That’s why he’s on a second straight one-year contract at age 27.
• But the Vikings more than doubled his pay vs. what San Francisco gave Darnold:
  • $10 million total vs. $4.5 million
  • $8.75 million guaranteed vs. $3.5 million
• That points to him being more than just a straight backup for his new team even before the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy. And now that McCarthy's out for the season, it's Darnold's job.
• He'll benefit from a strong WR duo in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. TE T.J. Hockenson is a big question mark after a double-ligament knee tear in Week 16 last season. The backfield upgraded by adding former Packer Aaron Jones.
• Minnesota has also run a pass-friendly offense under O’Connell. Over his two seasons, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
• Even after Kirk Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included four missed games and a limited outing for Jefferson.
• That helped Nick Mullens finish three of last season's final four weeks among the top 14 fantasy QBs -- including a QB5 finish in Week 18.