Sam Darnold - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

J.J. McCarthy is clearly the QB of the “future.” We’ll see how soon that starts. Until/unless he is overtaken by the rookie, Darnold will make sense as a late superflex pick and DFS consideration.

What We Learned Last Year

• Darnold’s not as good as Brock Purdy. That’s not really a knock on him. He just clearly wasn’t ever competing for the top job there. He’s probably better than Trey Lance, though. The 49ers let Darnold finish his contract.
• Darnold started just one game for San Francisco, throwing for 189 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs in a meaningless regular-season finale.
• He started 17 games for Carolina over the previous two seasons and was … not good enough.
  • Darnold completed just 59.5% of his passes there, right about his career average.
  • He posted a 2.9% TD rate, below his career average.
  • And he averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt, right on his career average.
  • Darnold did earn a career-high Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2022. That was good for 27th among 48 QBs who dropped back at least 100 times.

What to Expect in 2024

• Darnold hasn’t been good through his six NFL seasons. That’s why he’s on a second straight one-year contract at age 27.
• But the Vikings more than doubled his pay vs. what San Francisco gave Darnold:
  • $10 million total vs. $4.5 million
  • $8.75 million guaranteed vs. $3.5 million
• That points to him being more than just a straight backup for his new team. It’s not guaranteed-starter money, but it’s enough to make Darnold a potential bridge starter.
• Indeed, HC Kevin O’Connell has praised Darnold’s work since joining the team and said he’ll head to training camp as the starter.
• History tells us first-round pick J.J. McCarthy will likely take over at some point this year.
  • Since 2002 – when the NFL expanded to 32 teams – 68 QBs have entered the league via Round 1. The median timing for that group’s first start is Week 4 of the rookie season.
• Whoever plays QB for the Vikings will benefit from a strong WR duo in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. TE T.J. Hockenson is a big question mark after a double-ligament knee tear in Week 16 last season. The backfield upgraded by adding former Packer Aaron Jones.
• Minnesota has also run a pass-friendly offense under O’Connell. Over his two seasons, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
  • Even after Kirk Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included four missed games and a limited outing for Jefferson.