Fernando Mendoza Fantasy Overview

Prospect Profile

Lots of Auditions; Very Few Offers

Mendoza finished his Miami high school career with few scholarship offers and expected to walk on at an Ivy League school. Most scouting services graded him as a two-star recruit.

Mendoza’s size worked against him early. At nearly 6’5 but just 208 pounds, he looked lanky, thin, and short on arm strength, making him a tough fit for most college coaches.

He worked with QBs coach David Lee and attended nearly two dozen camps, but that grind produced only two FBS offers: FIU and Cal.

Mendoza chose Cal, where he redshirted as a 2022 freshman before entering 2023 as a third-stringer.

Unlikely Ascension Reveals Future Star

After five games, injuries and turnovers from Sam Jackson and Ben Finley pushed Cal to start Mendoza against Oregon State.

Cal lost, but Mendoza threw for 207 yards and 2 TDs in a 40-point effort that won him the starting job for the rest of the season.

His best moment came in a near-upset of Caleb Williams-led USC, when Mendoza went 25-of-39 for 292 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT while leading Cal to 49 points in a 1-point loss. That performance showed he could keep pace with one of college football’s best QBs.

Mendoza completed 63% of his passes for the season, with 1,708 yards, 14 TDs, and 10 INTs. He also ran for 98 yards and 2 TDs.

Despite the turnovers, Mendoza showed enough to secure the starting job for 2024.

The Tools Arrived Before Indiana

Mendoza entered 2024 with a stronger frame, now listed at 225 pounds. The added weight appeared to improve his arm strength.

That showed up against No. 18 Miami in Game 5, when Mendoza went 11-of-22 for 285 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT in a 39-38 loss while repeatedly connecting downfield against a strong secondary.

Protection was a major problem all season. Mendoza took 41 sacks, second-most in the country behind Shedeur Sanders’ 42, as one of college football’s worst offensive lines left him struggling against the blitz and unable to evade pressure.

Mendoza missed the regular-season finale against SMU due to illness and transferred before Cal’s bowl game.

Hoosiers Turned Him Into The Man

Mendoza transferred to Indiana over his hometown Miami Hurricanes, joining a program that entered 2025 chasing a title after a first-round playoff loss in 2024.

The season started hot, with Mendoza throwing for 975 yards, 14 TDs, and no INTs over the first four games, while adding 2 rushing TDs.

Mendoza led Indiana through an undefeated Big Ten schedule and up to No. 2 in the country, earning a Heisman Trophy and a trip to the Big Ten Championship.

He went 15-of-23 for 222 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT against No. 1 Ohio State in that game. With the Hoosiers up 13-10, Mendoza hit a key third-down deep pass to seal the win. The victory secured the No. 1 seed and cemented Mendoza as the top pick in the NFL Draft.

Mendoza excelled in the playoffs, throwing for 555 yards and 8 TDs with no INTs. His decision-making in an offense heavy on run-pass options led to a 74.6% completion rate across three games.

He delivered in the biggest moments, including a fourth-down TD run in the national championship game to extend the lead to two scores.

Mendoza finished with 3,535 passing yards, 41 TDs, and 6 INTs for the season, adding 276 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.

His Football IQ Drives Efficiency

Mendoza’s case as the top pick starts with the production and accolades, but opposing coaches raved just as much about his football IQ. One Big Ten defensive assistant told Ted Nguyen of The Athletic:

“He never makes mistakes. He’s gotta be extremely intelligent because he’s always making the right decision. We play one-high; he goes immediately to throw back-shoulder. Two-high shell with the safeties wide, he checks to a run and gets 5 yards. We send pressure, he changes the play. The efficiency was insane.”

That level of pre-snap control turns potential three-and-outs into sustained drives and more fantasy opportunities.

It showed up most in the red zone, where Mendoza frequently adjusted plays at the line to create TD chances, a big reason he threw 41 TD passes in 2025.

Outside the red zone, Mendoza thrived from a clean pocket in a system based on run-pass options, executing quick timing throws, working all three levels, and consistently identifying mismatches pre-snap.

His passing production against top competition, though, fell short of elite prospects such as Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

Where are the Passing Yards?

Across six games against ranked opponents in 2025, Mendoza averaged:

• 204 passing yards
• 2 passing TDs
• 0.5 INTs

The lack of high yardage totals has raised questions about his production, but context is important.

Mendoza threw for 299 yards against Wisconsin, narrowly missing that threshold. More importantly, Indiana beat Power 4 opponents by an average of 26.6 points, controlling most games, including playoff wins over Oregon and Alabama.

With consistent leads and defenses focused on limiting Mendoza, Indiana didn’t need to throw often, and its RPO-heavy offense leaned toward the run when defenses dictated it.

The result: efficient passing on limited volume.

Every coach will take efficient passing. The fantasy question is whether Mendoza can scale those numbers in the NFL and become a meaningful asset.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

The Raiders used the first overall pick on Mendoza, but that doesn’t lock him into the Week 1 starting job.

HC Klint Kubiak has said that in a “perfect world,” the rookie wouldn’t have to start immediately.

“It doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they [rookie QBs] have to play from Day 1, and it's our job as coaches to get them ready to go,” he added, via NFL.com. “I think it does help the player if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show."

The Raiders have a viable alternative after signing Kirk Cousins to a two-year deal with $11.3 million guaranteed. Cousins spent three seasons with new HC Klint Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5).

But that came five years ago, with Justin Jefferson. Cousins’ 2025 showed a player in decline: career lows in completion rate, TD rate, yards per attempt, and passing success rate.

It would be surprising if Mendoza isn’t in the starting lineup by midseason.

Supporting Cast

This unit should look better with a healthy Brock Bowers, who initially played through a Week 1 knee injury that later cost him five games. Still, he led the team with 64 receptions.

Bowers’ health is vital, given the lackluster WR depth chart.

Tre Tucker returns after leading Vegas in receiving yards in 2025, but he paired that with poor efficiency, including 1.26 yards per route run and 0.16 targets per route run.

The Raiders signed former Viking Jalen Nailor to a three-year deal with $23 million guaranteed. But he’s never been a full-season starter, spending his first four seasons behind a combination of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Adam Thielen.

Jack Bech has nice size (6’1, 214) and the appeal of a second-year Round 2 pick, but his rookie season produced only 20 catches for 224 yards in 16 games.

Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed but merely look like potential rotational pieces.

Better health should help the O-line climb from last year’s ugly marks: 28th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 30th in adjusted sack rate. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson return after injury-wrecked 2025 campaigns. The Raiders also added Tyler Linderbaum, a major center upgrade after his fourth-place finish among 41 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Mendoza will have to adjust from a shotgun-heavy college offense to one built more around under-center work. Per ESPN, he took only five snaps from under center across three college seasons. Kubiak’s 2025 Seahawks used it on 52.6% of their snaps, second-highest in the league per NFL Pro.

That shift made his footwork an offseason focus.

"Instead of being back there in shotgun, we have to get back to make sure you best serve your offensive linemen, still be on time [and] still decipher the defense," Mendoza said. "And with that, actually having an emphasis on those first two steps, on securing the snap and getting out of there, and [being] powerful with having quick feet."

Kubiak’s offense is also known for leaning on play-action and moving QBs outside the pocket. Mendoza handled play-action well last year, completing 71.8% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt with 10 TDs vs. 1 INT, per Pro Football Focus. Only two of his 131 play-action attempts were charted as turnover-worthy plays.

Our prospect guru Shane Hallam also describes Mendoza as someone who can “throw accurately on the run.”

We don’t project the Raiders as a pass-heavy offense. Our numbers put them at a 57.2% pass rate, which would have tied for 13th last year, and improved O-line health plus Year 2 of Ashton Jeanty should help keep Vegas balanced.

Paths to Ceiling

It starts with either beating out Cousins in camp or taking over early in the season.

From there, the Raiders would need someone to emerge from an unproven WR corps. Ideally, Mendoza would utilize his legs, too. His 2025 breakout included 23.4 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs per game, so there’s at least some rushing value in the profile.

Realistically, Mendoza could emerge as a priority streamer. But leaguewide QB depth makes it tough to see him becoming a weekly fantasy starter as a rookie.

Risk Factors

The greatest risk here is clearly that Cousins hangs on to the job well into the season. As mentioned earlier, Kubiak has said he’s not in a hurry to get the rookie onto the field, and perhaps Cousins rebounds some with a familiar coach and system.

Whenever Mendoza does take over, he’ll work with a largely unproven group of receivers that’ll likely limit scoring potential -- especially if Bowers goes down at any point.