Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• QB Fernando Mendoza
• QB Kirk Cousins
• RB Mike Washington Jr.
• WR Jalen Nailor
• C Tyler Linderbaum

Key Departures

• QB Geno Smith

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Pete Carroll fired; Klint Kubiak hired
• Andrew Janocko hired as OC, replacing interim OC Greg Olson

Fernando Mendoza

Prospect Profile

Lots of Auditions; Very Few Offers  

Mendoza finished his Miami high school career with few scholarship offers and expected to walk on at an Ivy League school. Most scouting services graded him as a two-star recruit.

Mendoza’s size worked against him early. At nearly 6’5 but just 208 pounds, he looked lanky, thin, and short on arm strength, making him a tough fit for most college coaches.

He worked with QBs coach David Lee and attended nearly two dozen camps, but that grind produced only two FBS offers: FIU and Cal. 

Mendoza chose Cal, where he redshirted as a 2022 freshman before entering 2023 as a third-stringer.

Unlikely Ascension Reveals Future Star

After five games, injuries and turnovers from Sam Jackson and Ben Finley pushed Cal to start Mendoza against Oregon State.

Cal lost, but Mendoza threw for 207 yards and 2 TDs in a 40-point effort that won him the starting job for the rest of the season.

His best moment came in a near-upset of Caleb Williams-led USC, when Mendoza went 25-of-39 for 292 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT while leading Cal to 49 points in a 1-point loss. That performance showed he could keep pace with one of college football’s best QBs.

Mendoza completed 63% of his passes for the season, with 1,708 yards, 14 TDs, and 10 INTs. He also ran for 98 yards and 2 TDs.

Despite the turnovers, Mendoza showed enough to secure the starting job for 2024.

The Tools Arrived Before Indiana

Mendoza entered 2024 with a stronger frame, now listed at 225 pounds. The added weight appeared to improve his arm strength.

That showed up against No. 18 Miami in Game 5, when Mendoza went 11-of-22 for 285 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT in a 39-38 loss while repeatedly connecting downfield against a strong secondary.

Protection was a major problem all season. Mendoza took 41 sacks, second-most in the country behind Shedeur Sanders’ 42, as one of college football’s worst offensive lines left him struggling against the blitz and unable to evade pressure.

Mendoza missed the regular-season finale against SMU due to illness and transferred before Cal’s bowl game.

Hoosiers Turned Him Into The Man

Mendoza transferred to Indiana over his hometown Miami Hurricanes, joining a program that entered 2025 chasing a title after a first-round playoff loss in 2024.

The season started hot, with Mendoza throwing for 975 yards, 14 TDs, and no INTs over the first four games, while adding 2 rushing TDs.

Mendoza led Indiana through an undefeated Big Ten schedule and up to No. 2 in the country, earning a Heisman Trophy and a trip to the Big Ten Championship.

He went 15-of-23 for 222 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT against No. 1 Ohio State in that game. With the Hoosiers up 13-10, Mendoza hit a key third-down deep pass to seal the win. The victory secured the No. 1 seed and cemented Mendoza as the top pick in the NFL Draft.

Mendoza excelled in the playoffs, throwing for 555 yards and 8 TDs with no INTs. His decision-making in an offense heavy on run-pass options led to a 74.6% completion rate across three games.

He delivered in the biggest moments, including a fourth-down TD run in the national championship game to extend the lead to two scores.

Mendoza finished with 3,535 passing yards, 41 TDs, and 6 INTs for the season, adding 276 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.

His Football IQ Drives Efficiency

Mendoza’s case as the top pick starts with the production and accolades, but opposing coaches raved just as much about his football IQ. One Big Ten defensive assistant told Ted Nguyen of The Athletic:

“He never makes mistakes. He’s gotta be extremely intelligent because he’s always making the right decision. We play one-high; he goes immediately to throw back-shoulder. Two-high shell with the safeties wide, he checks to a run and gets 5 yards. We send pressure, he changes the play. The efficiency was insane.”

That level of pre-snap control turns potential three-and-outs into sustained drives and more fantasy opportunities.

It showed up most in the red zone, where Mendoza frequently adjusted plays at the line to create TD chances, a big reason he threw 41 TD passes in 2025.

Outside the red zone, Mendoza thrived from a clean pocket in a system based on run-pass options, executing quick timing throws, working all three levels, and consistently identifying mismatches pre-snap.

His passing production against top competition, though, fell short of elite prospects such as Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

Where are the Passing Yards?

Across six games against ranked opponents in 2025, Mendoza averaged:

• 204 passing yards
• 2 passing TDs
• 0.5 INTs

The lack of high yardage totals has raised questions about his production, but context is important.

Mendoza threw for 299 yards against Wisconsin, narrowly missing that threshold. More importantly, Indiana beat Power 4 opponents by an average of 26.6 points, controlling most games, including playoff wins over Oregon and Alabama.

With consistent leads and defenses focused on limiting Mendoza, Indiana didn’t need to throw often, and its RPO-heavy offense leaned toward the run when defenses dictated it.

The result: efficient passing on limited volume.

Every coach will take efficient passing. The fantasy question is whether Mendoza can scale those numbers in the NFL and become a meaningful asset.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

When Will He Start?

The Raiders used the first overall pick on Mendoza, but that doesn’t lock him into the Week 1 starting job.

HC Klint Kubiak has said that in a “perfect world,” the rookie wouldn’t have to start immediately.

“It doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they [rookie QBs] have to play from Day 1, and it's our job as coaches to get them ready to go,” he added, via NFL.com. “I think it does help the player if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show." 

The Raiders have a viable alternative after signing Kirk Cousins to a two-year deal with $11.3 million guaranteed. Cousins spent three seasons with new HC Klint Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5). 

But that came five years ago, with Justin Jefferson. Cousins’ 2025 showed a player in decline: career lows in completion rate, TD rate, yards per attempt, and passing success rate.

It would be surprising if Mendoza isn’t in the starting lineup by midseason.

Supporting Cast Leans Heavily on One Guy

This unit should look better with a healthy Brock Bowers, who initially played through a Week 1 knee injury that later cost him five games. Still, he led the team with 64 receptions.

Bowers’ health is vital, given the lackluster WR depth chart.

Tre Tucker returns after leading Vegas in receiving yards in 2025, but he paired that with poor efficiency, including 1.26 yards per route run and 0.16 targets per route run.

The Raiders signed former Viking Jalen Nailor to a three-year deal with $23 million guaranteed. But he’s never been a full-season starter, spending his first four seasons behind a combination of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Adam Thielen.

Jack Bech has nice size (6’1, 214) and the appeal of a second-year Round 2 pick, but his rookie season produced only 20 catches for 224 yards in 16 games.

Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed but merely look like potential rotational pieces. 

Better health should help the O-line climb from last year’s ugly marks: 28th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 30th in adjusted sack rate. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson return after injury-wrecked 2025 campaigns. The Raiders also added Tyler Linderbaum, a major center upgrade after his fourth-place finish among 41 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade.

Mendoza Will Adjust to a New Approach

Mendoza will have to adjust from a shotgun-heavy college offense to one built more around under-center work. Per ESPN, he took only five snaps from under center across three college seasons. Kubiak’s 2025 Seahawks used it on 52.6% of their snaps, second-highest in the league per NFL Pro.

That shift made his footwork an offseason focus.

"Instead of being back there in shotgun, we have to get back to make sure you best serve your offensive linemen, still be on time [and] still decipher the defense," Mendoza said. "And with that, actually having an emphasis on those first two steps, on securing the snap and getting out of there, and [being] powerful with having quick feet."

Kubiak’s offense is also known for leaning on play-action and moving QBs outside the pocket. Mendoza handled play-action well last year, completing 71.8% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt with 10 TDs vs. 1 INT, per Pro Football Focus. Only two of his 131 play-action attempts were charted as turnover-worthy plays.

Our prospect guru Shane Hallam also describes Mendoza as someone who can “throw accurately on the run.”

We don’t project the Raiders as a truly pass-heavy offense. Our numbers put them at a 57.2% pass rate, which would have tied for 13th last year, and improved O-line health plus Year 2 of Ashton Jeanty should help keep Vegas balanced.

Paths to Ceiling

It starts with either beating out Cousins in camp or taking over early in the season. 

From there, the Raiders would need someone to emerge from an unproven WR corps. Ideally, Mendoza would utilize his legs, too. His 2025 breakout included 23.4 rushing yards and 0.43 rushing TDs per game, so there’s at least some rushing value in the profile. 

Realistically, Mendoza could emerge as a priority streamer. But leaguewide QB depth makes it tough to see him becoming a weekly fantasy starter as a rookie.

Risk Factors

The greatest risk here is clearly that Cousins just hangs on to the job well into the season. As mentioned earlier, Kubiak has said he’s not in a hurry to get the rookie onto the field, and perhaps Cousins rebounds some with a familiar coach and system.

Whenever Mendoza does take over, he’ll work with a largely unproven group of receivers that’ll likely limit scoring potential -- especially if Bowers goes down at any point.

Kirk Cousins

2025 Role & Results

Production Inflated By One Game

Cousins averaged 205.5 passing yards per game across eight starts for the Falcons, but that leaned heavily on one spike game against Tampa Bay. He threw for 373 yards and three of his 10 TDs vs. the Bucs, which propelled him to a QB4 finish for the week.

Cousins cracked the top 12 only once more in Week 16 at Arizona, when he scored his first rushing TD since 2022.

A Dink and Dunk Approach

Cousins played a conservative style, finishing 28th among 42 qualifiers in deep-throw rate (9.7%) and 30th in average depth of target (7.3).

His total volume wasn’t spectacular either, at 31 attempts per start. That ranked 16th among QBs with at least eight starts.

Cousins' Efficiency Hits New Lows

Cousins looked like a QB in decline, setting career lows in: 

• completion rate (61.7%)
• TD rate (3.7%)
• yards per attempt (6.4)
• passing success rate (44.3%)

Falcons Offense Leans Run

Atlanta didn’t supply an ideal environment, finishing seventh in pace but 17th in plays, 21st in pass rate, and 26th in pass rate over expected. 

Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts both played 17 games. Drake London missed five, including two during Cousins’ starting stretch. Notably, Cousins’ huge game against the Bucs came with London sidelined. (Although 44 pass attempts and a positive matchup certainly helped.)

The Falcons were serviceable up front, finishing 14th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate and 15th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

Cousins Avoids an Injury

Cousins brought no meaningful durability concerns until a 2023 right Achilles tear. He made it back for Week 1 of 2024 and has avoided any injury-related absences since.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

He's Likely to Start Week 1 ... but Will It Last?

Cousins is the favorite to start Week 1 after taking most of the first-team reps in offseason practices, while HC Klint Kubiak has talked about sitting No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza in a “perfect world.”

That would be an unusual (but not unheard of) situation. From 2016-2025, there have been eight QBs selected first overall. Of them, only two didn’t crack the Week 1 starting lineup. 

Eventually, we expect Mendoza’s talent to win out. Our projections have Cousins down for only four starts.

Brock Bowers ... and Not Much Else

This unit should look better with a healthy Brock Bowers, who played through a Week 1 knee injury last season that eventually cost him five games. Still, he led the team with 64 receptions.

Bowers’ health is vital, given this group’s WR depth.

Tre Tucker returns after leading Vegas in receiving yards in 2025. But that campaign turned up poor efficiency marks, including 1.26 yards per route run and 0.16 targets per route run.

The Raiders signed former Viking Jalen Nailor to a three-year deal with $23 million guaranteed. But he’s never been a full-season starter, spending his first four seasons behind a combination of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Adam Thielen.

Jack Bech brings nice size (6’1, 214) and the promise of a second-year Round 2 pick. Still, his rookie year turned up only 20 catches for 224 yards in 16 games.

Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed but look merely like rotational pieces. 

With better health, the O-line should improve on its finishes of 28th in PFF pass-blocking grade and 30th in adjusted sack rate. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson return after injury-wrecked 2025 campaigns. The Raiders also added Tyler Linderbaum, a major center upgrade after his fourth-place finish among 41 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade.

a Productive History With His New HC

Cousins spent three seasons with Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. 

The Vikings posted a 60.1% pass rate that year, ranking 21st league-wide, and finished in the same spot in pass rate over expected. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5). 

But that was five years ago, and Cousins had Justin Jefferson. This Raiders passing game offers little to get excited about beyond Bowers. 

Ashton Jeanty gives Vegas a potentially strong backfield foundation, which could push Kubiak toward the formula he used in Seattle last year. The 2025 Seahawks finished 30th in pass rate and 27th in pass rate over expected. That kind of low volume would make it tough for Cousins to deliver fantasy value.

Ashton Jeanty

2025 Role & Results

Solid Raw Numbers, Uneven Production

Across 17 games, Jeanty recorded:

• 266 carries
• 975 rushing yards
• 5 rushing TDs
• 55 catches
• 346 receiving yards
• 5 receiving TDs

Jeanty reached 80 rushing yards in only three games and fell below 50 in eight matchups. Half of his total TDs also came in just two games (vs. Chicago, at Houston).

Jeanty delivered four top-5 fantasy weeks but only one other top-12 finish. He also landed at RB24 or worse in 10 games.

Overall, Jeanty finished 11th in PPR points and 13th in half-PPR points, but he slipped to 16th and 17th in points per game.

Jeanty Stays Busy

The Raiders selected Jeanty with the sixth overall pick in 2025. A weak RB depth chart of Raheem Mostert, Zamir White, and Dylan Laube further helped Jeanty finish among the league leaders in carry share (second) and snap share (fifth). 

His 74.6% red-zone carry share ranked second in the league; his 84.2% carry share inside the 10-yard line ranked first.

Jeanty's Efficiency Stunk (and Understandably So)

Even Jeanty’s underlying metrics left fantasy managers wanting more.

Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he finished:

• ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 23rd in yards after contact per attempt
• 42nd in yards per carry
• 42nd in rush yards over expected per attempt

Jeanty managed just 1.28 yards before contact per attempt, 48th among 49 RBs with 100+ attempts. As the next section shows, he never had much runway for an efficient rookie season.

RaiderS Supply No Help

The Raiders ranked last in total yards, plays, and scoring while sitting 31st in rush attempts. They finished fourth in pass rate and second in red-zone pass rate, even with Geno Smith posting his worst passing success rate as a starter since 2014.

Vegas fired OC Chip Kelly after 11 games, but Jeanty’s efficiency barely changed without him. He went from 3.6 yards per carry under Kelly to 3.7 after and posted a better rushing success rate before the firing (42.8% vs. 38%).

O-line play really held this unit back. Vegas ranked 30th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade and 32nd in adjusted line yards. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson combined to miss 22 games with injuries.

Jeanty Remains Durable

Jeanty sustained a minor ankle injury in late November, but it didn’t cost him any time.

He missed only one game across three years at Boise State (knee issue in 2023).

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Supporting Cast Looks Upgraded

The Raiders will head to training camp with QB Kirk Cousins as the favorite to start, and he could hold the job into midseason after Kubiak preached patience with rookie Fernando Mendoza. 

Cousins spent three seasons with Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5). 

But that was five years ago, and Cousins has looked like a QB in decline since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per pass attempt last year and ranked 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

The O-line should improve vs. last year. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson return from injury-wrecked 2025 campaigns. The Raiders also added Linderbaum, a major center upgrade after his fourth-place finish among 41 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade.

Get Excited About Jeanty's Usage

Jeanty should stay well ahead of rookie Mike Washington Jr. after new HC Klint Kubiak mentioned Christian McCaffrey-like usage. Last year’s Raiders already treated him like a feature back, and the new staff appears ready to keep it that way.

Kubiak did orchestrate a near-even split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet last season as Seattle’s OC, but Jeanty’s top-10 draft capital points to a different setup alongside a Round 4 rookie who didn’t really break out until his final college season (at age 22).

Kubiak has also featured Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara heavily, with Cook averaging 21.7 touches and a 75.9% snap share for the 2021 Vikings and Kamara reaching 21.1 touches on a 70.8% snap share for the 2024 Saints. All four of those numbers ranked top-8 among RBs in those years.

Jeanty’s durability helps make the plan realistic. He missed just one game over three college seasons, stayed injury-free on 397 touches in his final Boise State campaign, and followed with 321 touches over 17 games as an NFL rookie.

Jeanty also brings zone-scheme experience that fits Kubiak’s history. Per Fantasy Points, 62.2% of his runs came on zone concepts last season, and he averaged 4.1 yards per carry on those attempts (vs. 3.02 in a man/gap scheme).

A Top-3 Season is In Play

Our projections place Jeanty sixth among RBs with 299 carries, narrowly behind James Cook and Saquon Barkley.

There’s room for him to beat that number and contribute heavily as a receiver, too, given Vegas’ lack of pass-catching depth. We project him for the fourth-most targets at the position (78.7). That type of volume would give Jeanty a shot at finishing as a top-3 fantasy RB.

Just How Much Will Vegas Improve?

The Cousins/Mendoza duo and a new-look O-line should help the offense, but that’s not saying much after a dreadful 2025. Can this unit bolster Jeanty’s scoring chances enough to support a late-Round 1 ADP? 

We’re not betting that Washington will siphon a bothersome amount of work from Jeanty, but there’s a chance he gets enough on that front to hurt Jeanty vs. other top-level fantasy RBs.

Mike Washington Jr.

Prospect Profile

Washington’s Journey Begins with a Whisper

Washington arrived at Buffalo in 2021. 

He logged 13 carries for 65 yards in the opener, a 62-point win over an FCS opponent. He appeared only twice more that season before taking a redshirt. 

The move paid off in 2022, when Washington’s role started to grow.

Year 2 Looked Better … But Also Concerning

Washington led the 2022 Bulls in rushing with 625 yards, but the number needs context. Fourth-year RB Ron Cook Jr. started the first 10 games before an injury knocked him out for the final three.

Across 10 shared games, their production proved similar. Cook edged Washington in rushing yards per game (60.0 to 48.1), while neither back generated much efficiency behind an O-line that ranked 112th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade.

Washington added 23 catches, fourth-most on the team, but the efficiency lagged: just 5.9 yards per catch with three drops and three fumbles, per PFF.

Both RBs returned for 2023, when the backfield didn’t shake out in Washington’s favor.

Things Got Worse

Washington opened 2023 in a split backfield with Cook, peaking with a 13-carry, 88-yard effort in Week 4. He reached 10 carries only once over the final seven games and failed to break a run for 20+ yards.

Washington’s underlying metrics confirmed the underwhelming season:

• 4.0 yards per carry
• 2.71 yards after contact per attempt
• and a 39.8 PFF elusive rating.

Nothing in that season suggested NFL promise. But a transfer to New Mexico State started Washington’s rise. 

Washington Improves Alongside a Fellow Prospect

New Mexico State fielded a rough team in 2024.

The Aggies finished 3-9, ranked 115th nationally in scoring, and cycled through four QBs.

They committed to the run, though. Their 40.6 attempts per game ranked 16th nationally and helped Washington collect 157 carries. But he wasn’t the only backfield factor. Fellow draft prospect Seth McGowan, about 1.5 years older, delivered the better statistical profile:

Ball security also remained an issue for Washington, who recorded four fumbles and four drops. He at least finished strong, topping 100 yards in two of his final four games, including a 26-carry finale vs. UTEP.

Washington returned for one final college season, this time at Arkansas. And it paid off.

Washington Saves His Best Work For Last

Washington looked like a different back last fall.

He handled a strong 69.9% carry share and turned a career-high 167 carries into several career highs: 

• 1,066 rushing yards
• 6.4 yards per carry
• 8 TDs
• and 3.86 yards after contact per attempt.

Among 69 FBS RBs with at least 150 attempts, Washington ranked top-16 in yards per carry and yards after contact per attempt.

His receiving production returned, too: Washington caught 28 passes, third-most on the team, averaged 8.1 yards per catch, and dropped just one target all year.

Ball security remained the downside (three fumbles). But Arkansas couldn’t keep Washington’s big-play ability off the field, and his 48.3% breakaway rate -- the percentage of his rushing yards generated via runs of 15+ yards -- ranked seventh in the aforementioned 69-RB sample.

Overall, the profile shows a late-breakout RB with dynamic traits but a persistent fumbling issue. The Raiders selected him in Round 4 as the fifth RB off the board.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

He Should Claim the No. 2 Role

Washington lands in a tough spot for volume behind Ashton Jeanty, who ranked second in the NFL in carry share (72.1%) and fifth in snap share (77.9%) as a rookie.

The good news: Washington should win the No. 2 job, with Dylan Laube, Blake Collier, and UDFA Roman Hemby offering little proven competition. Laube and Collier combined for 12 carries in 2025, while Hemby is an undrafted rookie.

Raiders Breaking in New QBs

The Raiders will head to training camp with QB Kirk Cousins as the favorite to start, and he could hold the job into midseason after Kubiak preached patience with rookie Fernando Mendoza. 

Cousins spent three seasons with Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5). 

But that was five years ago, and Cousins has declined since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per attempt last year and ranked 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

The O-line should improve vs. last year. LT Kolton Miller and G Jackson Powers-Johnson return from injury-wrecked 2025 campaigns. The Raiders also added Linderbaum, a major center upgrade after his fourth-place finish among 41 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade.

Washington a 'Really Good' Scheme Fit?

Brandon Yeargan, Raiders director of college scouting, called Washington a “really good fit” for new HC Klint Kubiak’s wide-zone run game.

Washington drew 60.8% of his college carries in zone concepts, so there’s some scheme familiarity. But the bigger question is whether he gets enough touches to matter, and Kubiak’s early comments suggest Jeanty will get workhorse usage.

Jeanty’s durability helps make that plan realistic. He missed just one game over three college seasons, stayed injury-free on 397 touches in 2024, and followed with 321 touches over 17 games as a rookie.

Washington will almost certainly need a Jeanty injury to present any 2026 fantasy value.

Tre Tucker

2025 Role & Results

Tucker Leads in Receiving

Tucker set career highs with 57 catches, 696 yards, and 5 TDs. But 20.8% of his yards and 60% of his TDs came in one Week 3 game at Washington.

He led all WRs in fantasy scoring that week but posted no other top-15 weeks. Tucker added three top-24 finishes and 13 at WR36 or lower.

Overall, he finished as the PPR WR38; WR47 in points per game.

His Usage Spiked

Tucker saw solid usage, leading the team with a 17.9% target share and 92.2% route rate.

Tucker’s volume came in waves, though. He drew 8 targets in four games but saw five or fewer looks in nine. Even after the Week 10 trade of Jakobi Meyers, Tucker’s target share only reached 18.0%. It climbed to 21.1% in five games without Brock Bowers.

Tucker’s 5’9 frame didn’t stop him from producing near the goal line, where he turned three of five targets inside the 10-yard line into TDs. But that looks more like TD variance swinging in his favor rather than usage we can count on in 2026.

No Silver Lining in His Efficiency

Not much to like here.

Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets, Tucker ranked:

• 41st in yards per target
• 44th in catch rate
• 45th in yards per catch
• 63rd in yards per route run
• 67th in targets per route run

Raiders Threw it A Lot ... With Awful Results

The Raiders brought the right approach for WR production, finishing fourth in pass rate, second in red-zone pass rate, and 10th in neutral pass rate. 

But QB play limited production. Geno Smith, Kenny Pickett, and Aidan O’Connell combined for 5.5 yards per attempt and 1.17 TDs per game.

Tucker Stays on the Field

Tucker hasn’t missed a game due to injury through three seasons. He popped up on the Week 13 injury report last season with a knee issue but was removed ahead of the weekend.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Raiders Look Weak at WR

Neither GM John Spytek nor HC Klint Kubiak was on hand when the Raiders drafted Tucker. But the 25-year-old still looks like a good bet to keep starting.

The Raiders signed former Viking Jalen Nailor to a three-year deal with $23 million guaranteed.  But he never exceeded 53 targets across four seasons with the Vikings.

Jack Bech brings nice size (6’1, 214) and the promise of a second-year Round 2 pick. But his rookie year turned up only 20 catches for 224 yards in 16 games.

Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed but look merely like rotational pieces.

We might not get clarity on the WR roles until training camp wraps, and Vegas could keep mixing and matching once the season starts. What does look clear is that the passing game will run through Brock Bowers, who we project for a 25% target share. Tucker sits at 15%, tightly grouped with Nailor (14%) and Bech (13%).

Expect an In-Season QB Change

Cousins looks likely to open the season as the starter. We project him for only four games, though, and expect rookie Fernando Mendoza to step in before midseason. 

Cousins spent three seasons with HC Kubiak in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5).

But that was five years ago, and Cousins has declined since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per attempt for Atlanta last year and ranked 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

Raiders Positioned to Lean Run

Kubiak’s history suggests we shouldn’t expect a pass-heavy offense. His three OC stops have ranked 30th, 25th, and 21st in pass rate over expected. 

Kubiak’s cross-training approach could help Tucker settle into the right role. He played mostly outside last year, and that’s where he was better: 81.7% of his snaps came out wide, where he posted 1.34 yards per route run and 0.17 targets per route run, compared with 0.79 YPRR and 0.11 TPRR in the slot.

The strength of this unit rests in an Ashton Jeanty-led backfield. Don’t be surprised if Kubiak continues to lean run, which would limit Tucker’s chances at meaningful target volume.

Paths to Ceiling

Tucker’s ceiling probably doesn’t reach much higher than last year’s WR38 PPR finish. The target competition doesn’t look much different, other than what should be a healthier version of Bowers. And there’s hope for significantly better QB play if Mendoza can develop quickly. But there’s no reason to get excited about Tucker.

Risk Factors

Although Tucker enters summer as a good candidate to start, he’s no lock to stay in the lineup under a new coaching staff. And this year’s Raiders could easily send a smaller share of targets to the WRs (thanks to a healthy Bowers) while potentially decreasing the total passing volume.

Jalen Nailor

2025 Role & Results

Nailor Stays Quiet in Contract Year

Nailor set career highs with 29 catches and 441 yards in Minnesota last season, adding 4 TDs across 17 games.

He posted two top-12 fantasy finishes but only one other inside the top-40. Even when Jordan Addison missed the first three games, Nailor finished WR82, WR74, and WR54.

Low Usage as the No. 3 WR

Nailor ranked fourth on the Vikings in route rate (65.2%) and fifth in target share (10.3%). He ran 60.6% of his routes from the slot and 25.3% out wide. 

Nailor caught three of his TDs on passes from inside the red zone while drawing a 15.5% red-zone target share. That tied T.J. Hockenson for third on the team.

His Efficiency Largely Underwhelmed

Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets, Nailor ranked: 

• seventh in yards per catch
• 60th in catch rate
• 64th in yards per route run
• 73rd in catchable target rate
• 75th in targets per route run

The poor on-target throw rate helps explain the low catch rate, and the weak per-route numbers make more sense when Nailor is competing with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for targets.

Nailor Didn't Have a Chance at Breaking Out

The Vikings got some of the worst QB play in the league, with three passers combining for 5.9 yards per attempt, 166.7 yards per game, and 18 scores.

Minnesota also finished 28th in pass attempts and 30th in plays, creating a tough environment for a No. 3 WR to produce.

Nailor Continues to Put College Injuries Behind Him

Nailor missed more than two weeks of training camp last year with a left hand injury, but he played all 17 games for the second straight season. 

A concussion and a hamstring injury limited him to only six games in 2023. His college resume was littered with missed games due to injuries: 

• five in 2018
• nine in 2019
• four in 2021

2026 Opportunity & Projection

A Big Contract Puts Him In Line for Significant Snaps

Nailor signed a three-year deal worth $35 million ($23 million guaranteed). The guaranteed money ranks 42nd among WRs but likely locks him into a starting role for new HC Klint Kubiak.

The rest of the WR room helps Nailor’s case. Tre Tucker led the Raiders in targets (92) and receiving yards (696) while trailing Brock Bowers in receptions (57 to Bowers’ 64). But Tucker ranked 63rd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets in yards per route run and 67th in targets per route run, which suggests he’s better suited for a smaller role.

Jack Bech carried some appeal as a Round 2 rookie last year, but the production hasn’t come yet: 20 catches on 29 targets for 224 yards in 16 games.

Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed, but they’re expected to slot behind Bech on the depth chart.

We might not get clarity on exact WR roles until the end of training camp, and Vegas could keep mixing and matching in-season. One thing looks clear, though: this passing game will still run through Bowers. We project him for a 25% target share, followed by Tucker at 15%, Nailor at 14%, and Bech at 13%.

Reuniting With Cousins

Kirk Cousins looks like the starter and could keep the job into midseason. He’s far from exciting but does at least bring familiarity with Kubiak. The two spent three seasons together in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5).

Cousins has looked like a QB in decline since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per attempt for last year’s Falcons and ranked 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

But if Cousins falters, Las Vegas can turn to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza -- which we’re guessing will happen by midseason anyway. Either way, the QB play should at least improve over last year’s Raiders.

Look For Vegas to Ride the Run Game

Kubiak’s history suggests we shouldn’t expect a pass-heavy offense. His three OC stops have ranked 30th, 25th, and 21st in pass rate over expected. 

Pair that with an Ashton Jeanty-led backfield, and you should expect more run-leaning from Kubiak. That would limit Nailor’s target upside.

Can He Emerge as the No. 2?

The ceiling case has Nailor earning a full-time role and emerging as the No. 2 target behind Brock Bowers. That path gets more interesting if Fernando Mendoza plays early and brings a much-needed arm-talent upgrade.

Even then, it’s hard to project Nailor’s ceiling beyond WR4 range.

Nailor's Past Says He's an Unlikely Breakout

Nailor’s opportunity is clear. But weak college production, late draft capital (Round 6), and minimal production as a pro suggest he’s a longshot to produce fantasy-friendly numbers.

Jack Bech

2025 Role & Results

A Silent Rookie Year

Bech managed only 20 catches for 224 yards in 16 games.

He reached a tie for 24th among PPR receivers in a Week 14 matchup with Denver, but that came on just 6 catches for 50 yards and 0 TDs (with four teams on bye). Beyond that, the rookie didn’t post another 50-yard game or top-60 PPR finish.

Usage Stays Low, Even After an In-Season Trade

Bech ran 71% of his routes out wide and nearly 28% out of the slot. He simply didn’t earn the volume to enter the fantasy discussion. 

He drew a 5.6% target share on a 31.4% route rate, rising to only 7.9% of targets and 39.9% of routes in seven games after the Jakobi Meyers trade.

Bech's Efficiency Needs Major Work

Among 146 WRs with 100+ routes, Bech’s efficiency profile looked rough:

• 88th in yards per route run
• 101st in yards per catch
• 108th in targets per route run

Bech did post a strong 74.1% catch rate, but his low 8.9-yard average depth of target helped explain it.

Offensive Environment Lacked Stability

The Raiders presented a weak situation for WR production.

Vegas QBs paired a fine 66.0% completion rate with only 6.5 yards per attempt (27th league-wide) and 169.5 yards per game (28th). 

OC Chip Kelly -- who was fired after 11 games -- led a unit that ranked fourth in pass rate but 29th in situation-neutral pace, 32nd in scoring, and 32nd in total plays.

Bech Misses One Full Game

Bech missed part of Week 13 with a chest injury and all of Week 17 with a back issue.

In college, he missed four games in October 2023 with a high-ankle sprain that required surgery and one in November 2024 with an MCL sprain. He returned to participate in the Senior Bowl.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

There's Room To Emerge as a Starter

Brock Bowers’ return gives the Raiders a clear lead target after his injury-marred 2025. The WR corps, though, remains one of the thinnest leaguewide.

Jalen Nailor got starter-signaling money in free agency: $23 million guaranteed on a three-year deal. But he’s never been a full-season starter or exceeded 53 targets in an NFL campaign.

Tre Tucker led the Raiders with 92 targets and 696 yards last season but posted weak per-route efficiency. Round 6 rookie Malik Benson and 2025 Round 4 pick Donte’ Thornton add speed but look like mere rotational pieces.

Bech still needs to prove to the new staff that he belongs in the WR rotation, but the weak depth chart leaves room for his target share and production to grow in Year 2.

Vegas Likely to Swap QBs in the Fall

HC Klint Kubiak said in March that “ideally,” he wouldn’t have to start top pick Fernando Mendoza right away. We’ll see how long that lasts.

Kirk Cousins could play into midseason and at least brings familiarity with Kubiak. They spent three seasons together in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5).

But Cousins has looked like a QB in decline since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per attempt for last year’s Falcons, ranking 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

Whether it’s Cousins or Mendoza for more games, the QB play doesn’t look likely to boost any WR fantasy fortunes this season.

Expect a Run-Leaning Approach

Kubiak’s history suggests we shouldn’t expect a pass-heavy offense. His three OC stops have ranked 30th, 25th, and 21st in pass rate over expected. 

Pair that with an Ashton Jeanty-led backfield, and there’s a clear path to a run-first approach that’ll limit Bech’s targets.

Paths to Ceiling

It starts with Bech beating out a thin WR corps. A near full-time role is possible if he earns it this summer.

From there, Bech’s upside could hinge on an early Mendoza breakout. His livelier arm would open up more of the field and better match Bech’s downfield skill set. Even then, the WR3-level spike weeks would be tough to peg in an offense built around Bowers and Jeanty.

Brock Bowers

2025 Role & Results

Bowers Remains Valuable in Shortened Season

Bowers racked up 64 catches, 680 yards, and 7 TDs in 12 games last season. His 4.9 catches per game ranked second among TEs; his 56.7 yards per game ranked third.

Bowers finished fourth in both PPR and half-PPR points per game, a little behind his expected TE2 finish. Notably, 24.8% of his PPR points came in one game vs. Jacksonville (12-127-3).

Overall, Bowers turned in four top-6 fantasy finishes, plus two weeks at TE7 and one at TE11. He ranked TE14 or worse in five games. 

Vegas' Go-To Option

Bowers ranked second among TEs with a 21.7% target share and 6.9 targets per game. 

That usage held up in the red zone, where Bowers saw a huge 42.5% target share. He also finished second in end-zone targets (12), despite missing five games.

Efficiency Slides Compared to 2024 ... And For Good Reason

Bowers’ efficiency probably wasn’t as strong as you’d expect, and the injury section helps explain why.

Among 49 TEs with 30+ targets, Bowers ranked:

• seventh in fantasy points per route run
• 11th in yards per route run
• 12th in targets per route run
• 17th in yards per target
• 17th in catch rate
• 29th in yards after catch per reception

He ranked just 20th out of 50 TEs in ESPN’s Open Score, a measure of how well a player creates separation. 

Bad QB Play A Limiting Factor

The Raiders produced a poor environment for fantasy production.

Vegas QBs paired a fine 66.0% completion rate with only 6.5 yards per attempt (27th league-wide) and 169.5 yards per game (28th). 

OC Chip Kelly -- who was fired after 11 games -- led a unit that ranked fourth in pass rate but 29th in situation-neutral pace, 32nd in scoring, and 32nd in total plays.

Remember How Bowers Started His NFL Career

Don’t let the injury-disrupted season erase what Bowers did as a rookie. 

In 2024, he posted rookie TE records for PPR points (262.7), catches (112), and receiving yards (1,194). The massive season came with a shaky QB situation that included nine starts from Gardner Minshew, seven from Aidan O’Connell, and one from Desmond Ridder. 

Knee Injury Lingers All Season

Injuries crushed Bowers’ chance at repeating his 2024.

A knee issue popped up in Week 1, and Bowers played through it for the next four weeks before it was identified as a left PCL injury and a bone bruise. 

“I want to be back to going full speed, being able to separate from guys,” Bowers said in early October. “I feel like I can’t really do that to the best of my abilities right now.” 

Bowers returned for Week 9 and exploded for a 12-127-3 line vs. the Jags. He stayed on the field through Week 16, when the Raiders placed him on injured reserve with another knee issue. There’s no indication of a setback, with reporter Tom Pelissero saying the move was made to get Bowers “100% in 2026.” 

2026 Opportunity & Projection

No Mystery Here: Bowers Will Dominate Targets

Expect Bowers’ elite usage to continue, with Jalen Nailor, Tre Tucker, and Jack Bech forming a shaky WR group around him.

Nailor signed a three-year deal with $23 million in guarantees. That suggests the Raiders plan to start him, but he spent four seasons as the No. 3 or 4 WR in Minnesota behind Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Adam Thielen. Nailor set career highs last year with just 29 catches and 444 yards.

Tucker looks more like a role player than an every-down starter, even after a career-best 2025 (57-696-5). The 5’8, 192-pounder posted poor per-route efficiency and drew just 17.9% of Raiders targets despite Jakobi Meyers’ midseason departure, Bowers missing five games, and the rest of the WRs contributing little.

Bech brought promise as a Round 2 pick last year, but he managed only 20 catches in 16 games.

The Raiders also return former Round 2 TE Michael Mayer, whose 44.4% route rate could climb. New HC Klint Kubiak leaned into two-TE sets in Seattle last year, ranking eighth in the league at 30%. His 2024 Saints offense ranked sixth at 30.5%.

Mayer has a path to snaps when Bowers aligns off the line. But that’s more of a formation wrinkle than a real threat to Bowers, who should contend for the league lead in TE targets.

Raiders Likely to Make a QB Change In-Season

Kubiak said in March that “ideally,” he wouldn’t have to start top pick Fernando Mendoza right away. We’ll see how long that lasts.

Kirk Cousins could start into midseason and at least brings familiarity with Kubiak. They spent three seasons together in Minnesota, including a strong 2021 campaign with Kubiak calling plays. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs that year, topping league average in both completion rate (66.3%) and yards per attempt (7.5).

But Cousins has looked like a QB in decline since leaving Minnesota. He managed only 6.4 yards per attempt for last year’s Falcons, ranking 31st among 33 qualifiers in on-target throw rate.

We’re not downgrading Bowers because of Cousins. The TE has already shown he can produce at an elite level through bad QB play, and the team will surely shift to Mendoza if Cousins truly struggles.

New HC Enamored With Bowers

Kubiak clearly thinks highly of Bowers after calling him a “football robot from heaven” in May.

“We gotta get the most out of Brock,” Kubiak continued. “Wherever he goes, he’s been successful: in college, in high school … whoever’s coached him … can’t say enough good things about him. Love his work ethic. He’s a standard bearer.”

Kubiak’s three stops as an OC have produced finishes of 30th (2025), 25th (2024), and 21st (2021) in pass rate over expected. That might be concerning for an average starting TE, but there’s no question Bowers will be featured in this passing game. 

Paths to Ceiling

It starts with good health after Bowers’ injury-impacted 2025. The good news is he participated in OTAs, and there’s been no talk of managing his prior knee issue.

No matter who starts at QB, Bowers should finish first or second at the position in targets, giving him an elite ceiling. Our projections peg him for 8.0 targets per game, second among TEs behind Trey McBride.