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Garrett Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGarrett Wilson’s Basic Stats

Garrett Wilson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 183
40 Time: 4.38

Burst Score (Rank): 122.70 (57%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.01 (53%)

Garrett Wilson's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.7 63.8 0.4 8.8
Weekly Writeup
Wilson trailed well behind Davante Adams in production last week but beat him by a target and has remained even with his new teammate in opportunity volume. Seattle arrives as a solid pass D, ranking 12th in DVOA. But the Seahawks have also been a neutral matchup for WR scoring.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 64.7 0.4 9

Garrett Wilson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#8 Wide Receiver

250.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 91 1137.8 7.2 0.1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGarrett Wilson's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Wilson’s tallied 2,145 yards over his first two seasons. Since 1990, only 17 WRs have exceeded that yardage across years one and two.

So Wilson’s enjoyed a strong start – despite lousy QB play. That figures to change in 2024, as long as Aaron Rodgers stays on the field.

Rodgers’ health adds a layer of fragility to Wilson’s fantasy outlook. But the upside here makes the investment worthwhile – provided you can land him near the 1-2 turn or beyond.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Wilson lost Aaron Rodgers to a Week 1 Achilles tear. Surprisingly, it didn’t torpedo his season.
    • The former Round 1 pick finished as the WR24 in PPR.
    • He simply lacked a high-end ceiling, scoring only 3 times while catching balls from Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle.
    • Wilson cracked the top 10 in a given week only once (Week 14 vs. Houston).
  • Wilson was a true target-earner.
    • He saw 168 targets -- 4th most in the league.
    • He led the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards (44.8%)
    • Wilson ranked T-5th among 153 qualifers in ESPN's Open Score. Essentially, he excelled as a pure separator.
  • Given the awful QB play, Wilson’s efficiency metrics weren’t great.
    • He posted just 11 yards per catch, 3.4 yards after catch per reception, and 1.55 yards per route run -- all steps down from his '22 production.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Aaron Rodgers is on track to begin the season at 100%
    • Clearly, he’s an upgrade from what Wilson played with in 2023.
    • Still, in 2022, Rodgers fell below career averages in yards per attempt (6.8), completion rate (64.6%), and yards per game (217).
  • Wilson’s volume will remain strong.
    • New York added Mike Williams and Round 3 WR Malachi Corley to the WR corps this offseason.
    • Williams’ effectiveness is questionable after a Week 3 ACL tear last fall.
    • Corley brings a feisty run-after-catch skill set but doesn’t project for a sizable target share.
  • The 2023 Jets, despite QB issues, ranked 5th in pass rate; 13th in pass rate over expected. Look for their pass-centric ways to remain following the return of Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett.

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Aaron Rodgers, QB NYJ

3:29pm EST 11/23/24

Will Aaron Rodgers Make It Through The Season?

The Athletic's Dianna Russini hears that it's "increasingly likely" that Jets QB Aaron Rodgers will be placed on IR or benched over the next few weeks. Russini adds that "no decisions have been made yet." But it's become clear over the last month that Rodgers has no future with the Jets beyond 2024, so it wouldn't be shocking to see the team pull the plug early.

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Jets WR Garrett Wilson was targeted eight times but only caught four passes for 18 yards in the Jets loss to the Colts. WR Davante Adams caught six of seven targets for 72 yards however.

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The Jets offense struggled mightily as a whole, but WR Davante Adams' 13 targets led the team. He only was able to bring in six for 31 yards. Teammate Garrett Wilson only caught five of six targets for 41 yards while RB Breece Hall had 83 total yards in the game and no scores.

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Jets WR Davante Adams sealed the win on Thursday night with a 37-yard TD on a slot fade late in the fourth quarter. Adams beat CB Jalen Pitre with a quick release at the line of scrimmage and created a few steps of separation to make it an easy throw for QB Aaron Rodgers. It was Adams' first TD as a Jet and part of a strong 7-91-1 outing. Adams and Rodgers struggled getting on the same page in the first half, connecting on just four of eight targets for 25 yards. But they were on point over the final 30 minutes, including a key 17-yarder on fourth-and-one in the third quarter. Adams' head hit the turf at the end of that catch. He went into the locker room to be checked for a concussion but was cleared to return, setting up the fourth-quarter TD.

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Jets WR Garrett Wilson went for 113 yards on 5 receptions in Sunday's loss to the Patriots. He led the team in both categories and also drew a team-high 8 targets.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
Dynasty MVP 63.6
Position Rank #8 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
435
716
1,370
Dynasty Write-up
Considering the issues at QB, you have to consider Wilson's second season (95-1,042-3) a success. He's set to get Aaron Rodgers back in 2024, but he's obviously not the long-term solution.
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