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Garrett Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGarrett Wilson's Basic Stats

Garrett Wilson
ADP: 2.2
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 24.0
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 192
40 Time: 4.38

Burst Score (Rank): 122.70 (57%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.01 (53%)

Garrett Wilson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
6.1 80.1 0.49 11.1
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.5 76.8 0.5 10.7

Garrett Wilson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Wide Receiver

276 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.2 97.6 1281.6 7.84 1.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGarrett Wilson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Wilson’s tallied 2,145 yards over his first two seasons. Since 1990, only 17 WRs have exceeded that yardage across years one and two.

So Wilson’s enjoyed a strong start – despite lousy QB play. That figures to change in 2024, as long as Aaron Rodgers stays on the field.

Rodgers’ health adds a layer of fragility to Wilson’s fantasy outlook. But the upside here makes the investment worthwhile – provided you can land him near the 1-2 turn or beyond.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Wilson lost Aaron Rodgers to a Week 1 Achilles tear. Surprisingly, it didn’t torpedo his season.
    • The former Round 1 pick finished as the WR24 in PPR.
    • He simply lacked a high-end ceiling, scoring only 3 times while catching balls from Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle.
    • Wilson cracked the top 10 in a given week only once (Week 14 vs. Houston).
  • Wilson was a true target-earner.
    • He saw 168 targets -- 4th most in the league.
    • He led the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards (44.8%)
    • Wilson ranked T-5th among 153 qualifers in ESPN's Open Score. Essentially, he excelled as a pure separator.
  • Given the awful QB play, Wilson’s efficiency metrics weren’t great.
    • He posted just 11 yards per catch, 3.4 yards after catch per reception, and 1.55 yards per route run -- all steps down from his '22 production.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Aaron Rodgers is on track to begin the season at 100%
    • Clearly, he’s an upgrade from what Wilson played with in 2023.
    • Still, in 2022, Rodgers fell below career averages in yards per attempt (6.8), completion rate (64.6%), and yards per game (217).
  • Wilson’s volume will remain strong.
    • New York added Mike Williams and Round 3 WR Malachi Corley to the WR corps this offseason.
    • Williams’ effectiveness is questionable after a Week 3 ACL tear last fall.
    • Corley brings a feisty run-after-catch skill set but doesn’t project for a sizable target share.
  • The 2023 Jets, despite QB issues, ranked 5th in pass rate; 13th in pass rate over expected. Look for their pass-centric ways to remain following the return of Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett.

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Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

12:23pm EDT 6/11/24

Garrett Wilson poised for breakout season

Jets WR Garrett Wilson aims to rebound from a 2023 season that was high on volume and low on efficiency. He garnered 168 targets but tallied a poor 56.5% catch rate. Wilson also scored on only three of his 95 catches -- a 3.1% TD rate.

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Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to be a full participant in OTAs later this month, HC Robert Saleh said. Rodgers is about eight months removed from his torn Achilles. "Once phase three hits, we're not anticipating any restrictions from what we can and can't do with him," Saleh said. It's been a smooth rehab for Rodgers by all accounts, and he should be ready to roll come Week 1. It's excellent news for WR Garrett Wilson, RB Breece Hall, and the rest of New York's skill-position players.

View all Aaron Rodgers Shark Bites »

The Jets are signing WR Mike Williams to a one-year deal worth "up to" $15 million, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It's a desperately needed addition for the Jets, who were trotting out guys like Allen Lazard, Xavier Gipson, and Randall Cobb behind Garrett Wilson last year. Williams is coming off a late-September ACL tear but should be ready in plenty of time for the start of the 2024 campaign. He racked up 19 catches and 249 yards in just three games last year and averaged over 68 yards per game in both 2021 and 2022. The 29-year-old should still have plenty of gas left in the tank -- especially as New York's No. 2 WR. Williams should find enough volume even behind Wilson to have a shot at WR3-level fantasy production. And his arrival is excellent news for QB Aaron Rodgers, who's also seen his team bolster its offensive line this offseason.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Jets QB Zach Wilson (concussion) is out for Sunday's game vs. the Patriots. QB Trevor Siemian will presumably close out this Jets season that was doomed when QB Aaron Rodgers went down in the opener. Siemian isn't a fantasy option but has at least been peppering RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson with targets.

View all Zach Wilson Shark Bites »

We wouldn't say that Jets QB Zach Wilson has been good for WR Garrett Wilson this season. But the QB's return to the lineup for Sunday's win over the Texans certainly looks like good news vs. the team's other options at the position. Garrett Wilson posted game highs in targets (14), receptions (9), and yards (108). The yardage also marked a season high, while the targets and catches matched his previous bests. In nine games now that Zach Wilson has started and finished, Garrett Wilson has averaged 11.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 76 yards, 12.2 yards per catch and 6.76 yards per target. In the other four games, those numbers have been: 7.5 targets, 4.25 receptions, 34.3 yards, 8.1 per catch, and 4.57 per target. Zach Wilson hasn't become a trustworthy QB yet. But he's better for the team's lead wideout than Tim Boyle or Trevor Siemian. Garrett Wilson looks like a solid-to-good play for matchups with the Dolphins and Commanders the next two weeks. We'll see about a Week 17 visit to Cleveland.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
Dynasty MVP 160.4
Position Rank #11 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
498
815
1,524
Dynasty Write-up
Considering the issues at QB, you have to consider Wilson's second season (95-1,042-3) a success. He's set to get Aaron Rodgers back in 2024, but he's obviously not the long-term solution.
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