Garrett Wilson Fantasy Overview

Injury Defined His Season

Wilson hyperextended his right knee late in a Week 6 loss to the Broncos. He missed the next two games and then aggravated the injury early in his Week 10 return vs. Cleveland. The Jets initially expected Wilson to miss no more than a month, but he sat out the rest of the season.

Fortunately, that marked the first significant injury of the wideout’s pro career. Wilson appeared in every game through his first three seasons, racking up 9.2 targets and 5.5 receptions per game.

Production Looked Strong Before the Knee Went

Wilson drew no fewer than 8 targets in any of his six appearances before the injury, including the aforementioned Denver contest.

He understandably struggled in that game before the injury (3 catches for 13 yards among 8 targets), but Wilson averaged a robust 6.6 receptions, 76.4 yards, and 0.8 TDs across the season’s first five contests. Those rates would have ranked seventh, eighth, and second in the league for the season.

Wilson finished four of those first five weeks among the position’s top 12 in PPR points, topping out as the second-highest scorer of Week 3.

His 30.4% target share ranked second in the league and helped offset an 80% catchable-target rate that ranked just 30th among WRs.

When Geno Smith Looks Like an Upgrade …

There’s no indication that Wilson’s knee will be a problem in 2026.

“Garrett looks good; he looks really good,” HC Aaron Glenn said in late May, with Wilson participating in team workouts. “I mean, he’s typical Garrett, so that doesn’t surprise me how he’s going out there, operating. … He’s getting all of his reps.”

That should set Wilson up for another big workload. Through his first three NFL seasons, only Davante Adams and CeeDee Lamb amassed more total targets. Wilson ranked eighth over that span in receptions, 10th in receiving yards, and tied for just 36th in receiving TDs.

Blame poor QB play primarily for the production not matching the usage. Wilson’s rookie year found Zach Wilson (nine games), Mike White (four), Joe Flacco (four), and Chris Streveler (one) all starting games. The next year whittled that down to Wilson (11), Trevor Siemian (three), and Tim Boyle (two) after Aaron Rodgers tore an Achilles’ tendon in the opener.

Even when Wilson got a full season of Rodgers in 2024, the Jets mitigated the impact by acquiring Rodgers’ boo, Davante Adams after six games. Wilson went from fifth among WRs in target share (29.3%) through six games to 25th (22.8%) from Week 7 on.

New Coach Plans to Feature Wilson

The Jets dumped OC Tanner Engstrand after one season and replaced him with Frank Reich. It’s not an exciting hire, but Reich does bring 10 years of experience as an NFL OC or HC, including plenty of work with mediocre bridge-type QBs.

Reich’s five years as Colts HC started with Andrew Luck’s final season, and then included one year apiece with these guys as lead QBs:

• Jacoby Brissett
• Philip Rivers
• Carson Wentz
• Matt Ryan

Reich also served as OC for the Eagles team that scored 41 points to win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles behind center.

That’s all relevant because he’ll get Geno Smith as QB in this reclamation project. Smith won’t excite anyone -- especially after last year’s Raiders debacle -- but he’s a passing upgrade over Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor.

‘This is My Sweet Spot’

According to Dan Pompei of The Athletic, Reich “plans to dial up wide receiver Garrett Wilson’s number frequently.” That will apparently include moving Wilson around the formation while varying play concepts.

“This is my sweet spot,” the coach says.

The Jets boosted their offensive depth chart by selecting TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr. in the first round, but they’ll need to prove they can challenge Wilson’s target share.

Sadiq’s an elite athlete, but he averaged just 1.9 receptions per game across three years at Oregon and didn’t break out until after TE Terrance Ferguson left (2025 second-round pick by Rams). Cooper similarly didn’t eclipse 28 catches in a season until last year at Indiana. Even then he trailed teammate Elijah Sarratt in receptions per game and TD catches.

Expect Wilson to remain among the league’s top target earners, with at least a modest boost in target quality. Smith is coming off a rough Raiders season, but even then he ranked 20th in catchable-throw rate among 45 QBs with 100-plus attempts, well ahead of Fields at 32nd. Smith ranked fifth in that category in his final Seattle campaign.

Wilson would welcome that change. Before last year’s aforementioned No. 30 ranking in catchable-target rate, here’s where he ranked among 40+ target wideouts:

• 2024 -- 59th out of 105 qualifiers
• 2023 -- 58th of 93
• 2022 -- 73rd of 98

Paths to Ceiling

Wilson managed rankings of just WR31, WR34, and WR20 in PPR points per game over his first three seasons, before producing like a top-12 player at the start of last year.

He’s unlikely to sustain the 11.1% TD rate that boosted that 2025 sample. But another elite target share, strong passing volume from a Jets team likely to play from behind, and better QB play could still give Wilson a shot at top-12 scoring this year, especially in full-PPR formats.

Risk Factors

The primary risks for Wilson include:

• The new guys commanding more target share than expected
• The team leaning run with a franchise-tagged lead RB and still lackluster QB
• Geno Smith simply deteriorating as a passer and giving Wilson more of the same crappy QB play he’s come to know in the pros

As we’ve seen before, even a healthy, heavily used Wilson could merely score like a WR3 on average.