Bottom Line

A surprise pick at 16th overall, Dotson went on to flash some big-play ability. Poor QB play, and a hamstring injury robbed him of the potential for more.

A good chunk of Dotson’s redraft value rests on the arm of QB Sam Howell. The UNC product started only one game in 2022.

A full-time WR for an offense lacking pass-catching depth, Dotson should supply some spike weeks in 2023. But we’ll sell him as a weekly fantasy starter.

What We Learned Last Year

• Dotson measured in at 5’11, 178 pounds at the NFL Combine.
  • Washington later selected him 16th overall as the WR5 in the class.
• He wasn’t limited by his stature as a rookie.
  • He caught 11 of 18 contested targets for a top-end catch rate of 61.1%.
  • Dotson played 73.7% of his passing snaps out wide.
  • Per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception charting, Dotson earned a 78.9% success rate vs. press coverage (87th percentile).
• Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, Dotson ranked 60th in catch rate and 51st in yards per route run.
  • Poor QB play certainly hurt. Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz ranked 25th and 29th, respectively, in on-target percentage (per Pro Football Reference).
  • Dotson wasn’t fed a ton of layups, either. He posted a 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT), helping produce 14.9 yards per catch. Both figures ranked top-12.
• Overall, Dotson finished as a top-24 PPR WR in five of 12 outings.
  • He maxed out as the WR9 in Week 15 alongside QB Taylor Heinicke.
  • In his lone game alongside likely 2023 starting QB Sam Howell (Week 18, vs. Dallas), Dotson caught 3 of 4 targets (21% team share) for 73 yards.
• Dotson missed five early-season games with a hamstring injury.
  • Dotson's injury initially popped up in Week 4. He encountered a setback in practice prior to Week 7.
  • Upon returning, Dotson’s snaps and route participation immediately hit pre-injury levels. Clearly, the 2022 staff had a ton of faith in this rookie.

What to Expect in 2023

• Washington made zero noteworthy additions to its WR or TE corps.
• WR Terry McLaurin returns as the No. 1 target.
  • Only 28, he has hit 120 targets in three straight seasons.
  • He hasn't missed a game since 2020.
• Curtis Samuel projects as the No. 3 option behind Dotson.
  • Samuel played all 17 games last year but missed 12 with hamstring and groin injuries in 2021.
• Eric Bieniemy joined on as the OC, replacing Scott Turner.
  • He’s spent the past ten years in Kansas City – five as the RB coach, five as the OC.
  • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
  • Washington, of course, doesn’t have anyone with Patrick Mahomes’ resume. But a league-average QB season is within Sam Howell’s range of outcomes.
• Howell excelled on deep balls at North Carolina, and his arm talent at least supplies some hope for a Year 2 breakthrough from Dotson.