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Jahan Dotson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJahan Dotson's Basic Stats

Jahan Dotson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23.7
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 182
40 Time: 4.43
Burst Score (Rank): 121.70 (53%)

Jahan Dotson's Weekly Outlook

Week 13 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 40.9 0.3 5.9
Weekly Writeup
Miami arrives as the fifth-best scoring matchup for fantasy WRs. The Dolphins are also favored by 9.5 points, which points to likely pass-favoring conditions. And Washington already leads the league in pass attempts. All of that gives Dotson upside. But he has averaged just 5.2 targets and 3.0 receptions this year in nine games that have found Curtis Samuel playing at least half the snaps. Three of his four TDs have come in games that Samuel missed or left early.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.8 42 0.3 5.5

Jahan Dotson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#59 Wide Receiver

87.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 60.4 672 4 1.7 1.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJahan Dotson's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

A surprise pick at 16th overall, Dotson went on to flash some big-play ability. Poor QB play, and a hamstring injury robbed him of the potential for more.

A good chunk of Dotson’s redraft value rests on the arm of QB Sam Howell. The UNC product started only one game in 2022.

A full-time WR for an offense lacking pass-catching depth, Dotson should supply some spike weeks in 2023. But we’ll sell him as a weekly fantasy starter.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Dotson measured in at 5’11, 178 pounds at the NFL Combine.
    • Washington later selected him 16th overall as the WR5 in the class.
  • He wasn’t limited by his stature as a rookie.
    • He caught 11 of 18 contested targets for a top-end catch rate of 61.1%.
    • Dotson played 73.7% of his passing snaps out wide.
    • Per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception charting, Dotson earned a 78.9% success rate vs. press coverage (87th percentile).
  • Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, Dotson ranked 60th in catch rate and 51st in yards per route run.
    • Poor QB play certainly hurt. Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz ranked 25th and 29th, respectively, in on-target percentage (per Pro Football Reference).
    • Dotson wasn’t fed a ton of layups, either. He posted a 15.4 average depth of target (aDOT), helping produce 14.9 yards per catch. Both figures ranked top-12.
  • Overall, Dotson finished as a top-24 PPR WR in five of 12 outings.
    • He maxed out as the WR9 in Week 15 alongside QB Taylor Heinicke.
    • In his lone game alongside likely 2023 starting QB Sam Howell (Week 18, vs. Dallas), Dotson caught 3 of 4 targets (21% team share) for 73 yards.
  • Dotson missed five early-season games with a hamstring injury.
    • Dotson's injury initially popped up in Week 4. He encountered a setback in practice prior to Week 7.
    • Upon returning, Dotson’s snaps and route participation immediately hit pre-injury levels. Clearly, the 2022 staff had a ton of faith in this rookie.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Washington made zero noteworthy additions to its WR or TE corps.
  • WR Terry McLaurin returns as the No. 1 target.
    • Only 28, he has hit 120 targets in three straight seasons.
    • He hasn't missed a game since 2020.
  • Curtis Samuel projects as the No. 3 option behind Dotson.
    • Samuel played all 17 games last year but missed 12 with hamstring and groin injuries in 2021.
  • Eric Bieniemy joined on as the OC, replacing Scott Turner.
    • He’s spent the past ten years in Kansas City – five as the RB coach, five as the OC.
    • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
    • Washington, of course, doesn’t have anyone with Patrick Mahomes’ resume. But a league-average QB season is within Sam Howell’s range of outcomes.
  • Howell excelled on deep balls at North Carolina, and his arm talent at least supplies some hope for a Year 2 breakthrough from Dotson.

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Jahan Dotson, WR WAS

8:26pm EST 11/19/23

Jahan Dotson scores amid lackluster outing

Washington WR Jahan Dotson caught the team's lone TD pass in Sunday's loss to the Giants. That inflated a stat line that included just 3 receptions and 23 yards. His 4 targets ranked fourth on the team, trailing RB Brian Robinson Jr. (9), TE Logan Thomas (8), and WR Terry McLaurin (7). Sunday found WR Curtis Samuel in the lineup, which has damaged Dotson's target share all year. But Samuel got ejected in the first half. That Dotson failed to draw more target share despite Samuel leaving early looks even worse for Dotson going forward. His spike in production for weeks 8 and 9 look more like outliers than blueprints for projecting Dotson the rest of the way.

View all Jahan Dotson Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Jahan Dotson was held off the stat sheet in Week 10. Sam Howell attempted 44 passes and threw for 312 yards, but Dotson garnered only 2 targets. He led the WR corps in snaps (58) and routes run (44). Sunday also marked the return of Curtis Samuel, who saw 6 targets coming off a toe injury. A tough rest-of-season schedule – plus a Week 14 bye – makes Dotson more of a deep league spot starter going forward.

View all Jahan Dotson Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Jahan Dotson drew 8 targets to lead the team in Sunday's win at New England. It marked the first time since Week 1 that he led the team in that category. He hauled in four of those targets for 69 yards and the team's lone TD reception, from 33 yards out. Dotson has averaged 5.7 receptions and 73.3 yards over the past three games (with 2 TDs) vs. just 2.8 receptions and 23.3 yards (1 TD) over the first six contests. WR Curtis Samuel's toe injury has helped, knocking him out of Week 8 early and keeping him out for Week 9. Samuel didn't practice at all ahead of the New England game, so his status looks at least iffy for Week 10 as well. Dotson will probably crack our top 36 at WR across formats for a Week 10 meeting with Seattle. The Seahawks entered Sunday as the third-best scoring matchup for WRs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. We'll see about Dotson's progression and how soon Samuel can return. WR Terry McLaurin, meanwhile, remained fine with a 5-73 receiving line on 7 targets against the Patriots.

View all Jahan Dotson Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Curtis Samuel (toe) is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Patriots. He was replaced last week by WR Jamison Crowder, who caught all seven of his targets for 95 yards and a score. We wouldn’t go chasing that production. Samuel’s absence should mean a few extra targets to divvy between WR Terry McLaurin, WR Jahan Dotson, and TE Logan Thomas.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Curtis Samuel (toe) did not practice on Wednesday. He didn't return to last week's game after hurting his toe and is in real danger of missing Sunday's game vs. the Patriots. Jamison Crowder replaced Samuel as Washington's primary slot receiver last week but would be a desperation fantasy play. Samuel's absence would likely mean more targets for WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Jahan Dotson, WR WAS
Dynasty MVP 78.8
Position Rank #100 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
244
400
748
Dynasty Write-up
Washington made Dotson the fifth WR off the board at pick No. 16 last year. We don't see a big fantasy ceiling on the 5’11, 178-pounder with 63rd-percentile athleticism, but he at least showed promise as a rookie. Washington's ability to find its long-term QB will be key here. Note that go-to WR Terry McLaurin is under contract for 3 more seasons.
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