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Jahan Dotson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJahan Dotson's Basic Stats

Jahan Dotson
ADP: 13.9
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 24.3
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 182
40 Time: 4.43

Burst Score (Rank): 121.70 (52%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.85 (23%)

Jahan Dotson's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.6 46.2 0.27 6.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.3 57.6 0.3 7.8

Jahan Dotson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#58 Wide Receiver

149.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
13.9 54 693 4.05 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJahan Dotson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Dotson burned fantasy owners in 2023, but it would be wrong to completely ignore him this summer.

He’s a 24-year-old former Round 1 pick. And he’s positioned to retain a starting spot after the Commanders WR corps – at least on paper – took a step back.

Questions remain about rookie QB Jayden Daniels and new HC Kliff Kingsbury. Still, at the cost of a late-round pick, Dotson’s worth the minimal investment.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Doston played for new Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy.
    • His offense allowed Sam Howell to lead the NFL in pass attempts.
    • Washington finished first in pass rate; third in pass rate over expected.
  • Still, fed 83 targets, Dotson’s play regressed following a promising rookie year (2022 produced 35-523-7 in 12 games.)
    • Recall that he entered the league as the 16th overall pick.
  • Last year, among 50 WRs with 80+ targets, Dotson ranked 37th in catch rate, 44th in yards per catch, 49th in yards after catch per reception, and 49th in yards per route run.
  • He managed just 0.13 targets per route run.
  • His target share? Third on the team at 13.8%.
  • Dotson never became a reliable fantasy play in lineup-setting formats. He finished as a top-36 WR four times ... and outside the top 50 ten times.
    • He was held off the stat sheet in Week 6 (at Atlanta), Week 10 (at Seattle) and Week 17 (vs. San Francisco).
    • Dotson topped 50 yards on only three occasions.
  • QB play certainly wasn’t an ally. Only 76.3% of Dotson's targets were charted as catchable -- 53rd in a 72 WR sample.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Washington lost Curtis Samuel to free agency and replaced him with late-Round 3 rookie Luke McCaffrey.
    • McCaffrey is a convered QB who’s on the raw side. Most analysts expected him to be a Round 5-6 pick.
    • McCaffrey mostly played in the slot in college (71%). Dotson has split his time out wide (64%) and in the slot.
    • Samuel’s absence removes 91 targets from the ‘23 offense.
    • Washington added TEs Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott. Their presence shouldn’t impact Dotson’s role.
  • QB Jayden Daniels arrives as the second overall pick.
    • He’ll turn 24 in December and brings plenty of experience (55 starts).
    • He’s a top-tier athlete with the ability to extend plays – a theoretical benefit for Dotson’s downfield upside.
    • Note: only 12.7% of Dotson’s 2023 targets came on deep balls (20+ air yards).
  • OC Kliff Kingsburry enters year one in Washington.
    • His Arizona offenses ranked 18th, 15th, 18th, and 4th in pass attempts.
    • Kingsburry’s units ranked 1st, 6th, 8th, and 6th in total WR target share.

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Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

8:49am EST 2/5/24

Kliff Kingsbury accepts Washington OC job

The Commanders are hiring Kliff Kingsbury as their OC under HC Dan Quinn, according to multiple reports. Kingsbury had an underwhelming tenure as Cardinals HC from 2019 to 2022, going 28-37-1 over those four seasons. He landed two of those teams inside the top 8 in total yards, but none cracked the top 10 in points. Kingsbury at least deployed fast-paced attacks, with three of his four offenses finishing top 3 in pace and offensive plays. He joins a Washington squad with plenty of skill-position talent and the No. 2 overall pick in this spring's draft, which will presumably be used to take a QB.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin managed no receptions on just 3 targets in Sunday's blowout loss to the Dolphins. And he wasn't happy about it. "I ran a lot of cardio today," he told reporters after the game. It's been a disappointing season for Washington's top wideout. Despite his offense leading the league in pass attempts entering Sunday and ranking ninth in passing yards, McLaurin was working on a career-low 57.8 yards per game. That's obviously coming down even further after Sunday's 0. WR Curtis Samuel tied with RB Antonio Gibson, and WR Jahan Dotson for the team lead with 5 targets. Samuel and Gibson caught four passes apiece, while Samuel led the team with 65 receiving yards. Washington's WRs don't look likely to help you a whole lot the rest of the way. After a Week 14 bye, the Commanders get the league's third-toughest schedule for WR scoring over the final three fantasy weeks. That includes matchups with the Jets and 49ers in the final two rounds of most fantasy playoffs.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Washington WR Jahan Dotson caught the team's lone TD pass in Sunday's loss to the Giants. That inflated a stat line that included just 3 receptions and 23 yards. His 4 targets ranked fourth on the team, trailing RB Brian Robinson Jr. (9), TE Logan Thomas (8), and WR Terry McLaurin (7). Sunday found WR Curtis Samuel in the lineup, which has damaged Dotson's target share all year. But Samuel got ejected in the first half. That Dotson failed to draw more target share despite Samuel leaving early looks even worse for Dotson going forward. His spike in production for weeks 8 and 9 look more like outliers than blueprints for projecting Dotson the rest of the way.

View all Jahan Dotson Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Jahan Dotson was held off the stat sheet in Week 10. Sam Howell attempted 44 passes and threw for 312 yards, but Dotson garnered only 2 targets. He led the WR corps in snaps (58) and routes run (44). Sunday also marked the return of Curtis Samuel, who saw 6 targets coming off a toe injury. A tough rest-of-season schedule – plus a Week 14 bye – makes Dotson more of a deep league spot starter going forward.

View all Jahan Dotson Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Jahan Dotson drew 8 targets to lead the team in Sunday's win at New England. It marked the first time since Week 1 that he led the team in that category. He hauled in four of those targets for 69 yards and the team's lone TD reception, from 33 yards out. Dotson has averaged 5.7 receptions and 73.3 yards over the past three games (with 2 TDs) vs. just 2.8 receptions and 23.3 yards (1 TD) over the first six contests. WR Curtis Samuel's toe injury has helped, knocking him out of Week 8 early and keeping him out for Week 9. Samuel didn't practice at all ahead of the New England game, so his status looks at least iffy for Week 10 as well. Dotson will probably crack our top 36 at WR across formats for a Week 10 meeting with Seattle. The Seahawks entered Sunday as the third-best scoring matchup for WRs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. We'll see about Dotson's progression and how soon Samuel can return. WR Terry McLaurin, meanwhile, remained fine with a 5-73 receiving line on 7 targets against the Patriots.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Jahan Dotson, WR WAS
Dynasty MVP 84.2
Position Rank #91 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
263
435
779
Dynasty Write-up
Washington made Dotson the fifth WR off the board in 2022. After a promising rookie year, his progress hit a roadblock alongside QB Sam Howell and OC Eric Bieniemy. Jayden Daniels provides a nice upgrade, so consider sending out some buy-low offers for Dotson.
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