Bottom Line

Mingo is an exciting athlete who spent most of college underwhelming with his production (and/or working back from a 2021 foot injury).

He lands in a good spot for opportunity, with Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark as primary competition. But best ball drafters have already pushed Mingo ahead of Panthers teammates in ADP.

If that’s where he’s going in your league, then the rookie presents more downside risk than upside. If he gets back to a more reasonable range, then he could be a stash.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mingo finally put everything together in his fourth college season. After a September stress fracture in his left foot all but nuked his 2021, Mingo was healthy for the start of 2022 and set career highs across receiving categories.
• He contributed a solid 21.3% of Ole Miss receptions, 27.6% of receiving yards, and 22.7% of TD catches. Mingo trailed teammate Malik Heath in receptions and yards, though.
• Mingo ranked 44th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 286 qualifying FBS WRs. He finished 96th in yards per route.
• He caught just 39 passes across his first two college seasons.
• Mingo averaged 15.7 yards per catch for his Ole Miss career, with a high of 16.9 last season.
• He tested quite well at the Scouting Combine. Mingo’s 4.46-second 40 time ranks 70th percentile for the position. He added 89th-percentile measurements in the broad jump and vertical. Mingo’s above-average height and weight for the position should also help with the rigors of NFL competition.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Panthers clearly bought the potential over the proven college production. They selected Mingo with the 39th overall pick, making him the fifth WR selected and first of Round 2.
• That adds Mingo to an offense that returns no one who reached 30 receptions in 2022. Terrace Marshall (28) leads all returning Panthers in that category. And Mingo is one of three wideouts the new coaching staff has imported since.
• Mingo’s other primary competition for targets will come from veterans Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark. Thielen got a three-year deal and looks like the best bet to lead the group in looks. Chark has seen limited target shares through most of his five NFL seasons and lost 3+ games to injury in four of those years.
• We’ll see who the new Panthers coaching staff likes best in the slot. None among the assumed top four looks like a natural fit there. Mingo played outside in college. Thielen and Chark have been outside guys in the pros. Marshall played 60.8% of his (limited) pass snaps in the slot as a 2021 rookie but then spent just 9% there last year.
• Wherever they all line up, there should be more of a passing lean than last year. The 2022 Panthers sported the league’s fourth most run-heavy offense.
• The volume might still be limited, though. HC Frank Reich’s last three full Indy teams all went 55.5% pass or less. His only season higher was 2018, which was also his only year with Andrew Luck.