CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Lamb ranked just 37th among WRs in target share last season. That did mark a bump from his rookie year, at least.
• Pro Football Focus gave Lamb the 10th-best receiving grade among wideouts last season.
• Lamb ranked just 34th last season in share of team air yards, but he’s almost certainly in for a bump there. Amari Cooper ranked just 4 spots behind him, and is now in Cleveland. Michael Gallup led Cowboys pass-catchers in that category in 2020 (before losing 8 games to injury last year). He’s coming off a Jan. 2 ACL tear. Even if Gallup’s ready to go and somewhere near his usual self, the departures of Cooper and Cedrick Wilson leave Dallas with the league’s 7th largest vacated air-yards share.
• Cooper and Wilson also leave behind 25.5% target share.
• NFL Next Gen Stats credited Lamb with 5.7 yards after catch per reception, vs. 3.6 expected YAC per reception. That 2.1 over expected ranked 7th highest in the league. The 6 players ahead of him:
  
  • Deebo Samuel
  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Kendrick Bourne
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • Bryan Edwards
  • Mecole Hardman
• Lamb’s average target depth increased with Dak Prescott back in 2021, vs. his 2020 rate.
• Dallas also played him outside a lot more in 2021. After lining up in the slot 93.2% of the time as a rookie, Lamb did so 39.8% of the time last season. More time outside should mean more downfield work.
• Lamb ranked 3rd among Cowboys WRs in end-zone targets last season. His 6 tied for 44th at the position. Cooper garnered 9. Gallup got 7 in just 9 games. Those numbers may differ by source, but the point is that he landed behind Cooper. As a rookie, Lamb led the team in that category and tied for 11th among WRs in end-zone targets. Scoring just 3 times among those 12 targets – according to PFF – could have been bad luck or bad QBing. Either way, that’s another area with potential upside.
• It was just 3 years ago that Lamb was coming off strong market shares in his 3rd and final Oklahoma season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Lamb has finished 24th and 20th in PPR points in his 2 NFL seasons. There’s quite a bit of projection in getting him all the way up to #5 in our PPR rankings. But there’s plenty working in favor of Lamb’s upside. He’s still just 23 and heading into his 3rd season. The physical talent is obvious. And the departures of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson plus Michael Gallup’s ACL tear leave a lot of opportunity available. On top of that, Dak Prescott now has a full year of action between him and the ankle injury. Lamb’s no lock to finish this high, but the path is there.