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Joshua Palmer - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJoshua Palmer's Basic Stats

Joshua Palmer
ADP: 13.3
Bye: 5
Experience: 3
Age: 24.8
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.57
Speed Score: 96.30

Burst Score (Rank): 119.80 (42%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.22 (53%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.01 (52%)

Joshua Palmer's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.4 41.1 0.23 5.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.4 28 0.2 3.9

Joshua Palmer's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#65 Wide Receiver

133.4 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
13.3 51 616.5 3.45 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJoshua Palmer's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

The departures of WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler give Palmer a chance to capture the biggest role of his career this season.

He’s been mediocre through three NFL campaigns, though, and is playing under a new, run-leaning coaching staff this year.

There doesn’t appear to be much upside here. But Palmer could see enough volume to be a useful depth piece for fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Palmer caught 38 balls for 581 yards and two TDs in 10 games last year.
  • He missed six games from Week 9 through 14 with a right knee injury. He also missed Week 17 with a concussion.
  • His 58.1 yards per game were a career high. He’s increased his yards per game across each of his three NFL seasons, from 20.8 to 48.1 to 58.1.
  • Palmer ranked 46th among WRs in PPR points per game last year.
  • A big chunk of his production (51.7% of his PPR points) came in Weeks 3, 7, and 15. Palmer finished as a top-24 PPR WR in all three of those weeks. He didn’t finish better than WR35 in any of his other seven outings.
  • Palmer set career highs last year in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He ranked 60th and 36th in those metrics among 80 qualifying WRs.
  • Palmer finished behind Keenan Allen in PFF grade and yards per route but well ahead of Quentin Johnston.
  • Palmer posted a 72-769-3 line in 16 games back in 2022.
    • He finished 49th among WRs in PPR points per game that year.
    • He ranked 57th in PFF receiving grade and 61st in yards per route among 80 qualifying WRs.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Chargers have a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
  • Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
    • 2011 - 31st, 30th
    • 2012 - 31st, 30th
    • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
    • 2014 - 29th, 27th
  • Here’s where the 49ers’ top WR finished in PPR points per game under Harbaugh and Roman:
    • 2011 - 30th (Michael Crabtree)
    • 2012 - 17th (Crabtree)
    • 2013 - 19th (Anquan Boldin)
    • 2014 - 25th (Boldin)
  • The Chargers lost WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler this offseason, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs.
  • Palmer’s primary competition for snaps and targets will come from WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark.
    • McConkey was the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards but fared well in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and yards per route.
    • Johnston was the 21st overall pick of last year’s draft but is coming off an ugly rookie season. Among 93 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked 81st in PFF receiving grade and 83rd in yards per route.
    • Chark signed with the Chargers in early May on a one-year, $3 million deal with a little over $2 million guaranteed. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. His 1.08 yards per route last year ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs.

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Ladd McConkey, WR LAC

9:05am EDT 6/12/24

Ladd McConkey Earns Praise ... But Will Role Match?

Chargers second-round rookie WR Ladd McConkey is reportedly meshing well with QB Justin Herbert in team workouts so far. Daniel Popper of The Athletic says McConkey has played "mostly in the slot." That probably lines up with most fans' expectations but doesn't align with his college usage. McConkey spent just 29.6% of his pass snaps in the slot across three seasons at Georgia, decreasing that rate each year.

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The Chargers and WR D.J. Chark agreed to a one-year deal worth “up to” $5 million," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Chark went for 1,008 yards back in 2019 but hasn't really been fantasy relevant since. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. Chark finished a distant second to WR Adam Thielen with 525 receiving yards on a bad Panthers passing game last year. His 1.08 yards per route ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs. Chark isn't a guy you should be excited to bet on, although this is a solid landing spot with QB Justin Herbert and a wide-open WR corps. Chark, Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston will duke it out for snaps this summer.

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The Chargers traded up in Round 2 of the NFL Draft to select Georgia WR Ladd McConkey 34th overall. McConkey’s raw college production doesn’t jump off the page. He never reached 60 catches or 800 yards in a season. But he played in a run-leaning Georgia offense and had to battle TE Brock Bowers (among others) for targets. McConkey was super efficient, leaving school with career 75.3% catch rate and 2.54 yards per route. His career-best 3.26 yards per route last year ranked eighth among 409 WRs with 35+ targets. McConkey is devastatingly quick and a polished route runner, making him one of the best separators in this WR class. And he’s a weapon after the catch, with a career 0.25 missed tackles forced per catch – a better rate than guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze. McConkey boosted his stock at the Combine with a 4.39-second 40 time and 9.34 Relative Athletic Score. The 6’0, 186-pounder can play both outside and in the slot. He might not big a big-play producer or high-TD-rate receiver at the next level, but McConkey has the potential to rack up a bunch of receptions. Going to the Chargers presents immediate opportunity. The WR corps shed Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, leaving Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as the top returning players. The landing spot helps McConkey's fantasy outlook. Check out our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

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The Chargers are trading WR Keenan Allen to the Bears for a fourth-round pick. That low price clearly comes because of Allen's contract. He carries a $34.7 million cap number, according to Over The Cap. Of course, we don't care about that for fantasy. Allen remained highly productive last season, finishing third among WRs in PPR points per game -- before missing the final four contests. He'll compete with D.J. Moore for the target lead in Chicago, where we're all awaiting confirmation that Caleb Williams will take over at QB. Whoever pilots the Bears offense will have a nice crew of pass-catchers, including new RB D'Andre Swift. Allen's ceiling comes down with the target competition and offense that's almost certain to be less pass-leaning than the Chargers of the past few years. Moore also takes hits to both his floor and ceiling. L.A., meanwhile, has to be a strong candidate to draft a WR fifth overall after dumping both Allen and Mike Williams. Josh Palmer is the top incumbent and looks like a better bet to seize opportunity than Quentin Johnston, who stunk as a 2023 rookie. We'll see how the situation sorts out, but losing Allen obviously hurts QB Justin Herbert. And it further fuels the expectation that the offense will lean much more toward the run under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. That obviously hurts Herbert's 2024 fantasy outlook. We still believe in the QB's talent, though. So it might be a good time to check Herbert's trade price in dynasty. The whole market has already been down on him this offseason. Check our dynasty rankings to see how these moves affect the players involved.

View all Keenan Allen Shark Bites »

The Chargers are releasing WR Mike Williams, according to multiple reports. It makes sense. Dumping Williams saves the team $20 million against the 2024 salary cap, which they sat about $25 million over before this move. It doesn't help Williams that he's coming off a September ACL tear. That could delay his signing with a new team -- or perhaps lead the 29-year-old to take a one-year "prove it" deal somewhere. We'll be watching the next step for Williams, who has scored on 10% of his career receptions and regularly ranked among league leaders in end-zone targets. The Chargers now sport Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston as their top three WRs, in an offense that figures to run the ball quite a bit more than it has since 2013. Those Chargers ran on 45.8% of offensive plays. The 10 versions since have reached 40% in run rate just twice and never exceeded 42.2%. Check our WR rankings for updates on Williams and the rest of the affected wideouts.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Joshua Palmer, WR LAC
Dynasty MVP 70.3
Position Rank #125 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
223
358
650
Dynasty Write-up
Injuries limited Palmer’s production in 2023. Despite the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, we're not expecting a Palmer breakout in 2024. It's a contract year for the 25-year-old (in September).
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