Joshua Palmer - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The departures of WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler give Palmer a chance to capture the biggest role of his career this season.

He’s been mediocre through three NFL campaigns, though, and is playing under a new, run-leaning coaching staff this year.

There doesn’t appear to be much upside here. But Palmer could see enough volume to be a useful depth piece for fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

• Palmer caught 38 balls for 581 yards and two TDs in 10 games last year.
• He missed six games from Week 9 through 14 with a right knee injury. He also missed Week 17 with a concussion.
• His 58.1 yards per game were a career high. He’s increased his yards per game across each of his three NFL seasons, from 20.8 to 48.1 to 58.1.
• Palmer ranked 46th among WRs in PPR points per game last year.
• A big chunk of his production (51.7% of his PPR points) came in Weeks 3, 7, and 15. Palmer finished as a top-24 PPR WR in all three of those weeks. He didn’t finish better than WR35 in any of his other seven outings.
• Palmer set career highs last year in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route. He ranked 60th and 36th in those metrics among 80 qualifying WRs.
• Palmer finished behind Keenan Allen in PFF grade and yards per route but well ahead of Quentin Johnston.
• Palmer posted a 72-769-3 line in 16 games back in 2022.
  • He finished 49th among WRs in PPR points per game that year.
  • He ranked 57th in PFF receiving grade and 61st in yards per route among 80 qualifying WRs.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chargers have a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
• Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
  • 2011 - 31st, 30th
  • 2012 - 31st, 30th
  • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
  • 2014 - 29th, 27th
• Here’s where the 49ers’ top WR finished in PPR points per game under Harbaugh and Roman:
  • 2011 - 30th (Michael Crabtree)
  • 2012 - 17th (Crabtree)
  • 2013 - 19th (Anquan Boldin)
  • 2014 - 25th (Boldin)
• The Chargers lost WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler this offseason, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs.
• Palmer’s primary competition for snaps and targets will come from WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark.
  • McConkey was the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards but fared well in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and yards per route.
  • Johnston was the 21st overall pick of last year’s draft but is coming off an ugly rookie season. Among 93 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked 81st in PFF receiving grade and 83rd in yards per route.
  • Chark signed with the Chargers in early May on a one-year, $3 million deal with a little over $2 million guaranteed. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. His 1.08 yards per route last year ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs.