Bottom Line

Miller looks like an upside runner and might have untapped receiving potential.

But he has a couple of hurdles between him and regular touches this year. We’ll have to see whether NFL discipline takes Alvin Kamara out of the way for any stretch. Miller might get a shot to prove that he deserves more touches than Jamaal Williams.

Keep the rookie in mind as a potential upside bench stash for managed leagues. He’s already close to Williams in ADP in best ball drafts and thus doesn’t look like a special value there.

What We Learned Last Year

• Miller went from impressive rushing efficiency in limited opportunities over his first two seasons to TCU workhorse in 2022.
• He averaged 7.4 yards per carry on just 137 rushes through two years, adding 13 catches oer that span.
• Last year found Miller averaging 6.2 yards across 224 attempts, 103 more than the nearest RB. Miller also beat that teammate by 0.5 per rush and 2.3 yards per reception, while leading the No. 2 RB by just 3 receptions.
• Miller’s final college season ended with a knee injury in the playoff win over Michigan. That kept him out of predraft testing that would have provided us testing numbers to compare with other RBs.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Saints selected Miller with the eighth pick of Round 3, as the third RB off the board. They clearly weren’t bothered by the lack of predraft testing.
• HC Dennis Allen also doesn’t appear concerned about Miller’s limited receiving work in college – and loves the rushing skills: "I like the player, I like his downhill running style, think he's got really good feet, I think he's got really good contact balance. And he's got the speed to take it the distance if he breaks free in the open field, so there's a lot of qualities about him that I like. And look, I don't know that they used him as much out of the backfield at TCU, but I think he's got that skill set."
• Miller’s pretty confident in that area as well: "How they use (Alvin Kamara) is kind of unique, and watching film every day, we watch a bunch of clips of him. How they use him in the pass game, that's pretty cool. I feel like I can step in and pretty much do the same thing."
• The Saints signed RB Jamaal Williams to a three-year contract in free agency before drafting Miller. He caught a decent number of passes early in his career but fell way off in that area last season (0.7 receptions per game). Williams has never been overly efficient as a receiver.
• Kamara enters this season off two straight years of decreased efficiency. He also brings the risk of suspension, stemming from his pending assault case. We likely won’t know until at least August whether the NFL will actually take action against him. That would dramatically alter the available touches in the New Orleans offense.
• The Saints might be in for a dip in rushing volume. They leaned harder on the run over the past four years after ranking among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses through nearly all of Drew Brees’ run. QB Derek Carr isn’t Brees but marks an upgrade over Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston.