Alvin Kamara - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Leading RBs in receptions last year gave Kamara a huge PPR boost, a trend that should continue as long as Derek Carr is still the QB.

He is currently being drafted as an RB2 in PPR, which is in line with our 2024 RB rankings.

Kendre Miller could get more work now that he is fully healthy, but the receptions should keep Kamara afloat.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kamara’s 1,160 total yards ranked 19th among RBs. His 75 catches ranked second among RBs.
• He was suspended for the first three games of the season for violating the league's personal conduct policy. He also missed the final game of the season due to a sprained ankle.
• Kamara ranked as the PPR RB12 in total fantasy points and fourth in points per game.
  • He finished RB12 or better four times. He recorded six games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 26th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 48.3%.
• Kamara played 63% of the Saints’ offensive snaps last season.
• In his 13 games, he averaged:
  • 13.8 carries
  • 53.4 rushing yards
  • 0.38 rushing TDs
  • 6.62 targets (15.52% share)
  • 5.77 catches
  • 35.8 receiving yards
  • 0.08 receiving TDs
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Kamara ranked:
  • 25th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 44th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 46th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• Kamara continued to shine as a receiver out of the backfield. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked:
  • 5th in PFF receiving grade
  • 7th in yards after catch
  • 3rd in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Kamara enters his third season under HC Dennis Allen.
• New OC Klint Kubiak spent last year as the 49ers' passing game coordinator.
  • In Kubiak’s last OC stint for the Vikings in 2021, the team was 16th in the league in rush attempts (449).
• The Saints are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Saints have the 25th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +8000 on most sportsbooks, third-highest in the division.
• Kamara enters his eighth season at 29 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Kamara’s career produces between 70-80% of his peak value at age-29.