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Alvin Kamara - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAlvin Kamara's Basic Stats

Alvin Kamara
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27.5
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.56
SPARQx (Rank): 106.80 (37%)
Burst Score (Rank): 132.70 (96%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.59 (28%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.17

Alvin Kamara's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Alvin Kamara's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Running Back

187 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 194.2 835.1 7.1 1.9 1.5 58.2 494.5 2.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAlvin Kamara's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Kamara finished 8th among RBs in PPR scoring last year, despite missing 4 games. He ranked 7th in points per game.
  • Among 26 RBs with at least 200 touches, Kamara ranked just 17th in PPR points per touch.
  • His receptions per game fell significantly vs. every previous season, in the 1st year without Drew Brees. Kamara finished each of his first 4 seasons between 5.1 and 5.8 catches per game. He averaged just 3.6 in 2021.
  • The main culprit was a sheer lack of opportunities. New Orleans ran the ball at the league’s 3rd highest rate and ranked just 30th in total pass attempts. For the 13 games he played, Kamara garnered a robust 18.7% target share. That strong numbers was actually down slightly from his 20.4% share for 2020.
  • Kamara should face more target competition in 2022 than he did the past 2 years. The Saints expect WR Michael Thomas back from the ankle injury that cost him all of 2021 and most of 2020. The team also drafted WR Chris Olave 11th overall and signed WR Jarvis Landry in free agency. No Saint collected more than 16.7% target share for the full 2021 season.
  • Kamara saw a leap in carries in his 5th season. He went from 3 straight years between 12.2 and 12.9 a game to 18.5 in 2021. Kamara ranked 5th in the league in rushing attempts per game and 2nd in opportunities (carries + targets) per game.
  • The Saints have added little backfield competition. The only new guy as of this writing is undrafted rookie Abram Smith. The incumbent #2 RB is 32-year-old Mark Ingram.
  • Kamara averaged a career-worst 3.7 yards per rush in 2021. His previous marks:
    • 6.1 (led the league)
    • 4.6
    • 4.7
    • 5.0
  • Football Outsiders ranked him last among 50 qualifying RBs in rushing DYAR and 47th in DVOA, their 2 primary rushing-efficiency metrics. Kamara also ranked 47th in success rate. He had never previously ranked lower than 19th in DYAR, 15th in DVOA or 12th in success rate.
  • Pro Football Focus also had his numbers down in rushing grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating. But among the 3, only rushing grade hit a career low – and even that wasn’t far beneath his 2019 number (65.9 vs. 67.2).
  • Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries, Kamara ranked 48th in rushing grade, 30th in elusive rating and tied for 34th in yards after contact per attempt. He checked in 17th, 14th and 25th, respectively, in 2020.
  • Kamara faces battery charges stemming from a February fight in Las Vegas. The next hearing in his case isn’t until August, though. The pace at which it has moved so far doesn’t point to legal resolution before the start of the NFL regular season.
  • Saints RB Alvin Kamara's court date for the battery charges against him has been rescheduled for September 29, ESPN's Katherine Terrell reports. That's 4 days after New Orleans' Week 3 game in Carolina and 3 days before the Week 4 game vs. the Vikings in London.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There were some signals of performance decline from Kamara in 2021. Part of that could be an offense with issues in the wake of QB Drew Brees’ retirement, and even more after Jameis Winston went down. The biggest risk with Kamara, though, is obviously the lingering legal matter. But that doesn’t seem to be moving along quickly enough to draw league discipline for this season. We’ll see about that. For now, enjoy the discount that the mere prospect of a suspension has applied to a guy who was still a strong fantasy performer even in a “down” 2021.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Alvin Kamara, RB NO

6:36pm EST 1/1/23

Kamara tallies modest production vs. Eagles

Saints RB Alvin Kamara carried the ball 16 times for 74 yards in Sunday's win vs. the Eagles. The former Pro Bowler added another 7 yards on 1 catch in the receiving game. The touch opportunity was certainly there for Kamara in Week 17 at a minimum. Some could call his output a success considering the Eagles' defense entered Week 17 ranked 4th-best in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA in the 3 weeks prior. Even so, a PPR performance under double-digits is less than ideal in the grand scheme of things. Kamara will have a chance to rebound in Week 18 vs. the Panthers.

View all Alvin Kamara Shark Bites »

Saints RB Alvin Kamara (quadriceps/NIR-personal) was a full participant on Friday and is set to play in Week 17 vs. the Eagles. Much has been made of Kamara's Instagram account being completely wiped and the fact he didn't practice at all until Friday. But as far as we know, the former Pro Bowler is going to suit up. 2022 has been an up-and-down journey for Kamara managers. However, 20+ touches over the last 2 weeks should inspire some confidence for strong volume if nothing else in a neutral matchup against the Eagles. Consider Kamara a low-end RB1 in Week 17.

View all Alvin Kamara Shark Bites »

Saints RB Alvin Kamara (quadriceps/NIR-personal) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. It's unknown how much of his absence is due to injury or the personal issue he's been excused from practice for. Hopefully, we'll have more information tomorrow. Kamara is considered an RB1 candidate if he is able to suit up in Week 17 vs. the Eagles. Keep tabs on RB David Johnson on your waiver wire if something prevents Kamara from playing.

View all Alvin Kamara Shark Bites »

Saints RB Alvin Kamara ran for 76 yards and a TD on 20 carries in Saturday's win over the Browns. That marked just 3.8 yards per rush, his 7th game among the past 8 with less than 4 yards per carry. But the TD was Kamara's 1st since Week 8, when he crossed the goal line 3 times against the Raiders. That had been Kamara's only game this season with a TD. Week 17 will bring a Philadelphia defense that has been friendlier to opponent rushing than passing. But it's not nearly as good a matchup for RB scoring as the one that allowed Kamara just 3.8 yards per rush this week.

View all Alvin Kamara Shark Bites »

The forecast for today's Saints-Browns game calls for temperatures in the single digits with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 40+. The wind chill is well below zero. They're brutal conditions that will significantly limit the passing and kicking games. Check out our projections for all the Saints and Browns players.

View all Deshaun Watson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Dynasty MVP 133.3
Position Rank #22 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
554
719
719
Dynasty Write-up
Kamara’s 1st season without HC Sean Payton proved rocky. Signed through 2025, he’ll play next season at 28 years old. Finding a QB upgrade will be key here.

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