Alvin Kamara - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Kamara finished 8th among RBs in PPR scoring last year, despite missing 4 games. He ranked 7th in points per game.
• Among 26 RBs with at least 200 touches, Kamara ranked just 17th in PPR points per touch.
• His receptions per game fell significantly vs. every previous season, in the 1st year without Drew Brees. Kamara finished each of his first 4 seasons between 5.1 and 5.8 catches per game. He averaged just 3.6 in 2021.
• The main culprit was a sheer lack of opportunities. New Orleans ran the ball at the league’s 3rd highest rate and ranked just 30th in total pass attempts. For the 13 games he played, Kamara garnered a robust 18.7% target share. That strong numbers was actually down slightly from his 20.4% share for 2020.
• Kamara should face more target competition in 2022 than he did the past 2 years. The Saints expect WR Michael Thomas back from the ankle injury that cost him all of 2021 and most of 2020. The team also drafted WR Chris Olave 11th overall and signed WR Jarvis Landry in free agency. No Saint collected more than 16.7% target share for the full 2021 season.
• Kamara saw a leap in carries in his 5th season. He went from 3 straight years between 12.2 and 12.9 a game to 18.5 in 2021. Kamara ranked 5th in the league in rushing attempts per game and 2nd in opportunities (carries + targets) per game.
• The Saints have added little backfield competition. The only new guy as of this writing is undrafted rookie Abram Smith. The incumbent #2 RB is 32-year-old Mark Ingram.
• Kamara averaged a career-worst 3.7 yards per rush in 2021. His previous marks:
  • 6.1 (led the league)
  • 4.6
  • 4.7
  • 5.0
• Football Outsiders ranked him last among 50 qualifying RBs in rushing DYAR and 47th in DVOA, their 2 primary rushing-efficiency metrics. Kamara also ranked 47th in success rate. He had never previously ranked lower than 19th in DYAR, 15th in DVOA or 12th in success rate.
• Pro Football Focus also had his numbers down in rushing grade, yards after contact per attempt and elusive rating. But among the 3, only rushing grade hit a career low – and even that wasn’t far beneath his 2019 number (65.9 vs. 67.2).
• Among 61 RBs with 70+ carries, Kamara ranked 48th in rushing grade, 30th in elusive rating and tied for 34th in yards after contact per attempt. He checked in 17th, 14th and 25th, respectively, in 2020.
• Kamara faces battery charges stemming from a February fight in Las Vegas. The next hearing in his case isn’t until August, though. The pace at which it has moved so far doesn’t point to legal resolution before the start of the NFL regular season.
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara's court date for the battery charges against him has been rescheduled for September 29, ESPN's Katherine Terrell reports. That's 4 days after New Orleans' Week 3 game in Carolina and 3 days before the Week 4 game vs. the Vikings in London.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There were some signals of performance decline from Kamara in 2021. Part of that could be an offense with issues in the wake of QB Drew Brees’ retirement, and even more after Jameis Winston went down. The biggest risk with Kamara, though, is obviously the lingering legal matter. But that doesn’t seem to be moving along quickly enough to draw league discipline for this season. We’ll see about that. For now, enjoy the discount that the mere prospect of a suspension has applied to a guy who was still a strong fantasy performer even in a “down” 2021.