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Alvin Kamara - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAlvin Kamara's Basic Stats

Alvin Kamara
ADP: N/A
Bye: 11
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.3
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.56
SPARQx (Rank): 106.80 (37%)
Burst Score (Rank): 132.70 (96%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.59 (28%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.17

Alvin Kamara's Weekly Outlook

Week 14 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
66.1 0.4 4.6 32.4 0.2 13.3
Weekly Writeup
The Panthers have allowed the fourth most rushing yards to enemy RBs (110 per game). Kamara enters with zero workload concerns, regardless of Derek Carr's status. The veteran back has totaled 42 opportunities over the past two weeks.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
41.7 0.4 3.9 32.6 0.2 10.3

Alvin Kamara's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#12 Running Back

165.1 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 151 667 6 1.5 3 62 522 2.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAlvin Kamara's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

The biggest unknown with Kamara was the suspension. Now, as of August, we know he'll be out for the first three games.

Sure, he’s likely a declining player. But he's also likely to continue seeing strong touch volume when active.

His current ADP sits in RB3 range. At that level, the upside seems well worth the risk – especially in full PPR setups.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Kamara got too many carries in 2021 and might have still gotten too many last season. After limited use in his 2017 rookie campaign (7.5 carries per game), he finished three straight years in the range of 12.2 to 12.9 carries per game.
  • That soared to 18.5 carries per game in 2021, and Kamara averaged a career-low 3.7 yards per carry – at least 0.9 short of every previous season.
  • He fell back to 14.9 carries per game in 2022 and slightly improved his yards per rush (4.0). The advanced metrics showed similar just-slight improvement.
    • Kamara climbed from 46th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DYAR and 47th in rushing DVOA in 2021 to 41st and 40th, respectively, in 2022.
    • Kamara did leap from 47th in rushing success rate to eighth. He ranked 15th in that category in 2020.
    • His Pro Football Focus elusive rating actually declined vs. 2021, to the second-lowest number of his career. Kamara ranked 41st among 61 RBs with 70+ carries.
    • His yards after contact per attempt matched the lowest number of his career and ranked 46th at the position.
    • Kamara did rebound in rushing grade and ranked 30th, ahead of Breece Hall, James Conner, Jamaal Williams and Najee Harris, among others.
  • Kamara’s receiving grade dipped slightly from what had been his career low in 2021, though he still ranked 23rd among 61 RBs with 20+ targets.
  • Kamara posted career-low numbers in receiving DYAR and DVOA, ranking 24th and 31st (respectively) among 51 qualifiers.
  • His 8.6 yards per catch was his second-lowest mark but not far off his career rate (8.7). Kamara has averaged fewer than 4.0 receptions per game for two straight years after exceeding 5.0 in each of his first four seasons. But we can attribute much of that to declines in passing volume and the retirement of super-efficient Drew Brees.
  • Kamara has finished each of the past five years among the top 11 RBs in opportunity share. He has finished top-9 in four straight seasons.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Kamara’s drops in efficiency and advanced metrics would be more concerning if he weren’t still doing so well on touch volume. Despite missing two games last year, he still ranked ninth in the league in total touches; sixth in touches per game.
  • New Orleans probably doesn’t want him repeating that level of usage, though. The Saints gave RB Jamaal Williams a three-year contract in free agency. And then they drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3.
    • Taysom Hill ranked second in carries for last year’s team – 127 behind Kamara. Mark Ingram ranked second among RBs with just 62 carries.
    • There were 103 rushing attempts by Saints RBs not named Kamara. If Williams and Miller don’t beat that number by a lot in 2022, then something’s going wrong.
  • The Saints also upgraded at QB. Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton started the 17 games last year. The team said with the contract (four years, $150 million) that it believes Derek Carr will be a lot better.
  • Will that mean more passing volume and less of a rushing lean? Seems likely.
    • Pete Carmichael has been Saints OC since 2009. From that year through 2019, the team ranked lower than 15th in pass attempts just twice.
    • They have finished the past three years 25th, 30th, and 26th.
    • New Orleans ranked among the top 12 in run rate each of those seasons.
  • Kamara’s usage will keep him heavily involved either way.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Taysom Hill, TE NO

1 hour ago

Taysom Hill questionable for Week 14

Saints TE Taysom Hill (foot, left hand) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Panthers. He didn’t practice all week, so he’s seemingly on the doubtful side of questionable. Hill has averaged 5.8 carries and 2.8 targets per game this season. And he’s tied for the team lead with seven carries inside the five-yard line. Hill’s absence would leave behind quite a bit of opportunity, with RB Alvin Kamara being the biggest winner.

View all Taysom Hill Shark Bites »

Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (quad) is "likely" to miss Sunday's game against the Lions, according to insider Nick Underhill. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport adds that Shaheed avoided a major injury, so he can stay stashed on benches in deeper fantasy leagues. WR Chris Olave is also iffy for Week 13 with his concussion, which could leave A.T. Perry, Keith Kirkwood, and Lynn Bowden as New Orleans' top three WRs. We'd expect to see a lot of Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, and Juwan Johnson in that case.

View all Rashid Shaheed Shark Bites »

Saints RB Kendre Miller (ankle) missed practice all week and is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Vikings. The rookie has totaled just four carries and two targets since RB Jamaal Williams returned in Week 7, so there’s little fantasy impact here.

View all Kendre Miller Shark Bites »

Saints RB Kendre Miller (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday. The rookie has totaled just four carries and two targets over the past three weeks, so his absence vs. the Vikings this weekend would have very little fantasy impact.

View all Kendre Miller Shark Bites »

Saints RB Alvin Kamara struggled in Week 9 vs. the Bears, logging just 70 total yards on a combined 13 touches. His 11 PPR points ranked 16th among RBs entering Sunday night football, so it’s not as though he was awful, but it’s a far cry from the 20.8 points per game he’d averaged over the previous six contests. Kamara’s schedule stays tough this week at the Vikings. Then comes a Week 11 bye. Of course, the superstar RB remains a locked-in starter across formats.

View all Alvin Kamara Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Alvin Kamara, RB NO
Dynasty MVP 73.1
Position Rank #65 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
272
392
505
Dynasty Write-up
Kamara’s first season without HC Sean Payton proved rocky. Signed through 2025, he’ll play this season at 28 years old. He'll also miss the first three games on suspension.
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