Lamar Jackson Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Jackson threw for 2,549 yards and 21 TDs across 13 games last season. He added 349 yards and 2 TDs on the ground to finish 15th among QBs in fantasy points per game.

Before getting knocked out of Week 4 with a hamstring injury, Jackson averaged:

• 240.7 passing yards
• 3.0 passing TDs
• 39.3 rushing yards
• 0.3 rushing TDs

Jackson led all QBs in fantasy points per game through Week 3.

Over his final eight games (omitting Week 16 when he left early with a back injury), he ranked QB16.

Usage & Role

Jackson’s 24.7 pass attempts per game across his 11 full outings were right in line with his average over the previous six seasons (27.9).

But his 5.4 carries per game easily marked a career low. His previous averages:

• 2019: 11.7
• 2020: 10.6
• 2021: 11.1
• 2022: 9.3
• 2023: 9.3
• 2024: 8.2

Injuries likely factored into that decline. But Jackson also averaged just 5.0 carries across the first 3 games.

Efficiency & Regression

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last season, Jackson ranked:

• 24th in completion rate
• 24th in adjusted completion rate
• third in yards per attempt
• 24th in Pro Football Focus passing grade

Jackson’s 63.6% completion rate was his worst since 2022. His 74.3% adjusted completion rate was his worst across his seven seasons as a full-time starter, and his 65.9 PFF passing grade was his second-worst mark over that span.

Jackson’s rushing efficiency was also down, with his 5.2 yards per carry and 0.15 missed tackles forced per attempt both his worst marks across seven seasons as full-time starter.

On the plus side, his 3.12 yards after contact per attempt was a little above his career average of 2.95.

Offensive Context

The Ravens remained a run-heavy offense last season, ranking dead last in pass rate (48.0%), 31st in neutral pass rate (48.1%), and 31st in pass rate over expected (-6.3%).

Across Jackson’s 11 full outings, Baltimore climbed to a 53.6% pass rate, 56.6% neutral pass rate, and -3.9% pass rate over expected. That still ranked just 30th, 23rd, and 29th, respectively.

The Ravens also ranked 29th at 57.3 plays per game, and that number dipped to 56.3 in Jackson’s 11 full outings. Baltimore had averaged at least 61.8 plays per game in each of Jackson’s first six seasons as a full-time starter.

Historical Production & Trends

Jackson’s 20.8 fantasy points per game in his 11 full outings were a career low, but his 28.2 in 2024 were the second-most of his career. That makes 2025 look more like a one-off than the start of a steady decline.

Jackson turned 29 in January. He’s likely past his prime, especially as a runner, but our positional aging curves still have rushing QBs producing at 87% of peak at age 29.

Injury History & Durability

Jackson missed three games with a hamstring injury and one with a back contusion last year.

He didn’t miss any games with injuries in 2023 or 2024 but sat out 10 games across 2021 and 2022 -- five with a PCL sprain, four with a sprained ankle, and one with an illness.

Projected Role & Competition

Jackson has two years remaining on the five-year, $260 million deal he signed in April 2023. He and the team have been negotiating a new deal for more than a year now to no avail.

Jackson showed up for the start of the offseason program, though, and is of course locked in as Baltimore’s 2026 starter.

Supporting Cast

The Ravens return last year’s top two targets in WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews. That pair accounted for 54.7% of the team’s receiving yards and 43.5% of the receiving TDs last season.

Baltimore injected some youth into the WR corps with third-rounder Ja’Kobi Lane and fourth-rounder Elijah Sarratt, but neither rookie nor Rashod Bateman is likely to be a real difference-maker for Jackson this year.

Baltimore lost TE Isaiah Likely in free agency. He averaged just 21.9 yards per game last year and didn’t reach 30 per game in any of his four seasons with the Ravens. But he did total 11 TDs across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Baltimore’s offensive line returns OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten. But the interior got overhauled. First-round rookie Olaivavega Ioane and free-agent addition John Simpson are expected to start at guard. Center is completely unsettled after Tyler Linderbaum departed in free agency. The list of replacement candidates looks worrisome:

• Danny Pinter
• Corey Bullock
• and Jovaughn Gwyn.

That center spot looks like the biggest concern for Jackson heading into 2026.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

For the first time as a pro, Jackson will play for a new HC after Baltimore fired John Harbaugh in January. He was replaced by Jesse Minter, who brought in Declan Doyle as OC.

Minter has a defensive background, so it’ll be Doyle running the offense. The 30-year-old has no experience calling plays at any level, so he’s a wildcard.

Doyle does come from a nice coaching tree, though. He spent five years working under Sean Payton (three in New Orleans as offensive assistant, two in Denver as TEs coach) and then served as Bears OC under Ben Johnson last season.

Here’s Doyle on Jackson shortly after being hired: “What he can do with his legs and as a ballcarrier is really special. We will shape and build this offense around what he does best.”

Paths To Ceiling

Jackson has shown his upside climbs to the top of the position. If he stays healthy and the offense clicks under Doyle, Jackson could lead all QBs in fantasy points this season.

Risk Factors

Jackson’s rushing production was noticeably down last year. There’s a chance the 29-year-old is no longer an elite runner.

There are also supporting-cast concerns heading, including a new coaching staff, thin pass-catching corps, and remade interior offensive line.

Jackson is unlikely to fall out of QB1 territory as long as he stays healthy. He could wind up more of a mid-range QB1 than fantasy difference-maker, though, even without getting hurt.