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Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Basic Stats

Lamar Jackson
ADP: 5.4
Bye: 10
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 25.4
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.44
Throw Velocity (Rank): 49.00 (2%)

Lamar Jackson's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Quarterback

361.8 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
5.4 306.1/478 3554.6 24.2 11 174 1036.6 3.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Jackson has followed his dominating 2019 fantasy breakout with rankings of QB11 and QB8 in fantasy points per game the past 2 years.
  • The biggest change has come in passing-TD rate. That number fell from 9.0% in 2019 to 6.9% in 2020 and then 4.2% last year.
  • Jackson’s adjusted yards per pass attempt – a Pro Football Reference stat – have also declined for 2 straight years. The primary culprit there has been an increase in sack rate. Jackson went from 5.4% in 2019 to 7.2% and then 9.0%.
  • He still saw a big jump in passing yards per game last season, from 208.5 and 183.8 the previous 2 years to 240.2, ranking 13th in the league.
  • Credit a large shift in pass-run split. Baltimore passed (or took a sack) on just 44.1% of offensive snaps in 2020, nearly identical to the team’s 2019 rate. Both ranked lowest in the league by a significant margin. Last year’s Ravens, on the other hand, passed at a 56.4% rate (21st in the league).
  • Baltimore has since traded away Marquise Brown, allowed Sammy Watkins to walk and made no significant pass-catching additions. The team also gets RBs J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill back from injuries, drafted RB Tyler Badie and signed free-agent RB Mike Davis. Brown reportedly asked for a trade because of the run-heavy scheme.
  • Jackson led all QBs in rushing yards per game for the 3rd straight season. He also led all QBs in total rushing yards as a 2018 rookie, despite starting only 7 games.
  • – Jackson’s Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2021 fell for the 2nd straight year. His adjusted completion rate was down slightly – though in line with the previous 2 years – and his total QBR ranked just 17th in the league. That measure includes a QB’s rushing contributions.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jackson’s passing declined in 2021 vs. his previous 2 years. Baltimore’s passing-volume increase masked some of that. And Jackson’s rushing will always mask more of it. But it’s fair to wonder whether the Ravens will lean back toward the run (and/or how far) with the backfield returning to health. And it can’t be good for Jackson’s passing to lose his top wideout from the past 2 years. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and the complementary pieces, however, should be enough to support the level of passing production that Jackson needs. That’s because only Jalen Hurts matches Jackson in the amount of fantasy production that comes from rushing (among 10+ game starters in 2021). Even last year’s pass-heavier Ravens still found Jackson generating 31.6% of his fantasy points on the ground. (Hurts hit 39.7%; Josh Allen ranked 3rd at 24.5%.) Jackson has given us no reason to fear a crash in his rushing numbers. So a healthier offense overall should be a positive. And even a return to the extreme run-heaviness of 2019-20 clearly wouldn’t doom the QB’s fantasy outlook.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

10:05am EDT 6/13/22

Jackson reports to minicamp

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson reported to mandatory minicamp on Monday. This was always the expectation, but Jackson, 25, remains without a long-term extension. According to PFT’s Myles Simmons, Jackson “has not yet engaged the club in meaningful contract talks.” Note that the QB is representing himself in contract negotiations.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's ankle "feels great," HC John Harbaugh said Monday. Jackson ended up missing the final 4 games of the season with a bone bruise to that ankle, but it shouldn't impact his offseason.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Tyler Huntley will start Sunday's game vs. the Steelers, HC John Harbaugh said Friday. QB Lamar Jackson still isn't able to play on that ankle injury. Huntley has finished QB18, QB1 and QB21 in fantasy points in 3 starts this season.

View all Tyler Huntley Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday. The Ravens haven't been eliminated from the playoffs quite yet, but they're a long shot, so there's little reason to push Jackson when he's not at 100%. Look for QB Tyler Huntley to start vs. the Steelers this weekend.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Rams. QB Tyler Huntley gets another start. He led all QBs in fantasy points in his last start back in Week 15 and finished QB18 in his Week 11 start.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
Dynasty MVP 360.4
Position Rank #6 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,099
1,830
3,482
Dynasty Write-up
Jackson’s 2021 might be remembered for his late-season ankle injury. But he was on a high-end QB1 pace early in the season. Jackson is entering the final year of his rookie deal, but extension talks are on the docket. The biggest concern here is the departure of WR Marquise Brown.
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