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Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Basic Stats

Lamar Jackson
ADP: 3.12
Bye: 13
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26.7
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 230
40 Time: 4.44
Throw Velocity (Rank): 49.00 (2%)

Lamar Jackson's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
190.5 1.2 0.6 57.4 19.4
Weekly Writeup
Jackson hasn't done much as a passer this season. The former MVP has yet to surpass 250 passing yards in a contest and has two games with zero passing TDs. This week, he'll face a Browns defense that ranks as the third-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs so far in 2023. This is also a defensive front that's difficult to run on, so Jackson will have his work cut out for him. We still treat him as a low-end QB1 option despite these obstacles.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
229.8 1.4 0.9 53.8 20.6

Lamar Jackson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Quarterback

330.3 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
3.12 328.3/513 3677.5 23.1 13.8 141 860.1 4.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Though leg injuries have cut Jackson’s last two NFL seasons short, the Ravens ultimately gave the former NFL MVP a five-year, $260 million contract this offseason.

With his elite rushing acumen and the upgrade on the coaching staff with new OC Todd Monken, Jackson can elevate his passing game and show fantasy managers why he earned that mega-deal.

Draft Jackson with confidence as a solid QB1 – with upside to the top of the position.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Jackson entered last season with three consecutive seasons as a top-10 QB in fantasy points per game. He achieved that feat again in 2022 (QB6, 19.7 points per game) and finished as the QB14 overall in 12 games played.
  • If you take a peek behind the curtain, Jackson’s 2022 wasn’t as good as it sounds on paper. After a red-hot start to the season, including back-to-back QB1 overall finishes in Week 2 and Week 3, he fell off in production before succumbing to a season-ending knee injury in early December:
    • Week 1 - Week 4: QB1 overall (29.9 points per game)
    • Week 5 - Week 13: QB18 overall (15.4 points per game)
  • The former first-round pick has now failed to finish the last two seasons healthy because of leg injuries.
  • The good news is that we can count on Jackson to run the ball effectively. He ranked second in PFF rushing grade among QBs in 2022 with six games of 70+ rushing yards.
  • Since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, Jackson ranks first among QBs in rushing attempts (580), rushing yards (3,742), and rushing yards per game (69.3).
    • His rushing floor is a big part of why he’s the QB3 in fantasy points per game (22.68) in that same span.
  • The biggest problem with Jackson is that he’s still not much of a passer. 2022 was the second year in a row in which he failed to throw for over 3,000 passing yards and 20+ TDs.
  • Among 52 QBs who’ve started at least 10 games since 2019, here’s how Jackson ranks in some key passing categories:
    • 37th in passing yards per game (203.9)
    • 27th in completion percentage (64.4%)
    • 13th in passer rating (98.1)
    • t-13th in adjusted yards gained per attempt (7.63)
  • Through four seasons with OC Greg Roman calling the plays for the Ravens’ offense, Jackson showed he is capable of being a pretty good passer, but there’s not a ton of evidence to suggest he’s prolific by any means.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The single-most significant move the Ravens made this offseason was moving on from OC Greg Roman and hiring former University of Georgia OC Todd Monken.
  • We’ll likely see a shift to a more balanced offensive philosophy in 2023 and beyond, which means Jackson’s path to greater passing production is now much clearer than it has been in his career.
  • Monken previously spent four seasons as an OC at the NFL level with the Buccaneers (2017-18) and Browns (2019). Here’s how Monken’s offenses in that window compares to Roman’s offense over the last four years in Baltimore in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE):
    • Monken: +1.8% PROE
    • Roman: -5.5% PROE
  • Early reports out of Ravens camp agree with this notion and indicate that the offense will be ‘up-tempo’ and pass more.
  • The additions of 1st-round NFL draft pick Zay Flowers and free agent signee Odell Beckham Jr. will also provide Jackson with a plethora of quality pass-catching options on top of TE Mark Andrews and WR Rashod Bateman.
  • We know Jackson possesses an elite upside with his rushing. Still, with his new arsenal of weapons and increased passing potential, we’re looking at someone who has the opportunity to return to his 2019 NFL MVP form if everything clicks.

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Odell Beckham Jr., WR BAL

18 hours ago

Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman out for Week 4

Ravens WRs Odell Beckham (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (hamstring) have been ruled out for Sunday's game vs. the Browns. That leaves Nelson Agholor as Baltimore's No. 2 WR and Devin Duvernay as the No. 3. Expect a run-heavy attack from the Ravens, with WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews dominating targets.

View all Odell Beckham Jr. Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson made good use of his rushing ability on Sunday, leading the Ravens in rushing with 101 yards and 2 TDs on 14 carries vs. the Colts. He also completed 22 of 31 passes for 202 yards through the air in the Week 3 OT loss. The Ravens still have yet to record a ton of damage through the air this season, but it’s always great any time Jackson’s legs rack up that many fantasy points. Next up on the schedule for Jackson and company is a divisional bout against the Browns in Week 4.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson threw for 237 yards and 2 TDs in Sunday's win over the Bengals. He added 54 rushing yards on 12 attempts, leading Baltimore in carries in the first game since RB J.K. Dobbins' injury. Jackson didn't take any sacks and avoided turnovers. He gets a favorable matchup with the Colts in Week 3 before a potentially tougher spot against Cleveland in Week 4.

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Ravens QB Lamar Jackson threw for just 169 yards on 17-of-22 passing in Sunday's win over the Texans. He added 38 yards on 6 carries to lead the team in rushing but didn't score via run or pass. Jackson did throw an INT and take 4 sacks. Baltimore RBs accounted for all 3 TDs, with Justice Hill scoring twice after J.K. Dobbins' Achilles' injury. (Dobbins scored the other TD.) It was a disappointing fantasy day for Jackson, but there's no reason for concern on that front going forward.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta gushed about QB Lamar Jackson's standing heading into the season opener. "Lamar’s attitude has been excellent this year," DeCosta said. "I think last year was a challenging year for a lot of reasons, obviously, just where he was with his contract. This year, his enthusiasm has been fantastic. He’s throwing the ball very, very well. He’s been able to build a great rapport with the WRs very, very quickly. He’s taking care of his body. He seems really into the offense – he's excited about it. He has an awesome relationship with his coaches, and he worked very hard this offseason." With a pass-happier OC and significantly upgraded WR corps, Jackson's 2023 fantasy upside extends to the top of the QB position.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
Dynasty MVP 268.5
Position Rank #12 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
869
1,390
2,376
Dynasty Write-up
Jackson played under the franchise tag in 2022, a year impacted by a late-season knee injury. While the fantasy numbers dipped when healthy, Jackson still flashed plenty of rushing upside with a pair of 100-yard outings. He's now tied to Baltimore until 2028 following an April extension. Consider Jackson a strong bounce-back candidate alongside an upgraded WR corps that includes Round 1 pick Zay Flowers.
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