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Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Basic Stats

Lamar Jackson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 10
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26.0
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212
40 Time: 4.44
Throw Velocity (Rank): 49.00 (2%)

Lamar Jackson's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Lamar Jackson's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#1 Quarterback

361.5 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 316.2/494 3655.6 24.5 11.4 170 1003 3.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsLamar Jackson's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Jackson has followed his dominating 2019 fantasy breakout with rankings of QB11 and QB8 in fantasy points per game the past 2 years.
  • The biggest change has come in passing-TD rate. That number fell from 9.0% in 2019 to 6.9% in 2020 and then 4.2% last year.
  • Jackson’s adjusted yards per pass attempt – a Pro Football Reference stat – have also declined for 2 straight years. The primary culprit there has been an increase in sack rate. Jackson went from 5.4% in 2019 to 7.2% and then 9.0%.
  • He still saw a big jump in passing yards per game last season, from 208.5 and 183.8 the previous 2 years to 240.2, ranking 13th in the league.
  • Credit a large shift in pass-run split. Baltimore passed (or took a sack) on just 44.1% of offensive snaps in 2020, nearly identical to the team’s 2019 rate. Both ranked lowest in the league by a significant margin. Last year’s Ravens, on the other hand, passed at a 56.4% rate (21st in the league).
  • Baltimore has since traded away Marquise Brown, allowed Sammy Watkins to walk and made no significant pass-catching additions. The team also gets RBs J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill back from injuries, drafted RB Tyler Badie and signed free-agent RB Mike Davis. Brown reportedly asked for a trade because of the run-heavy scheme.
  • Jackson led all QBs in rushing yards per game for the 3rd straight season. He also led all QBs in total rushing yards as a 2018 rookie, despite starting only 7 games.
  • – Jackson’s Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2021 fell for the 2nd straight year. His adjusted completion rate was down slightly – though in line with the previous 2 years – and his total QBR ranked just 17th in the league. That measure includes a QB’s rushing contributions.
  • "I think it's the best I've ever seen him throw it thus far," Ravens OC Greg Roman said about Lamar Jackson. He also noted the QB's increased strength, as we've passed along here previously. "He's really worked hard in the offseason, and it's showing," Roman added.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jackson’s passing declined in 2021 vs. his previous 2 years. Baltimore’s passing-volume increase masked some of that. And Jackson’s rushing will always mask more of it. But it’s fair to wonder whether the Ravens will lean back toward the run (and/or how far) with the backfield returning to health. And it can’t be good for Jackson’s passing to lose his top wideout from the past 2 years. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and the complementary pieces, however, should be enough to support the level of passing production that Jackson needs. That’s because only Jalen Hurts matches Jackson in the amount of fantasy production that comes from rushing (among 10+ game starters in 2021). Even last year’s pass-heavier Ravens still found Jackson generating 31.6% of his fantasy points on the ground. (Hurts hit 39.7%; Josh Allen ranked 3rd at 24.5%.) Jackson has given us no reason to fear a crash in his rushing numbers. So a healthier offense overall should be a positive. And even a return to the extreme run-heaviness of 2019-20 clearly wouldn’t doom the QB’s fantasy outlook.

Adjust Lamar Jackson's Projections

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Baltimore Ravens, TQB BAL

1:06pm EST 1/19/23

Ravens OC moving on

Ravens OC Greg Roman announced Thursday via management firm AthletesFirst that he's "stepping away from the team to pursue other opportunities." Roman's offenses obviously leaned heavily on the run across his 4 years in Baltimore, which made plenty of sense with Lamar Jackson at QB. But Roman's rushing lean predated that stint. All 6 of the previous offense for which he served as OC -- 4 in San Francisco, then 2 in Buffalo -- ranked among the league's top 9 in rushing attempts. Across his 10 years as a coordinator, just 3 Roman offenses ranked lower than 3rd in carries. Only 1 of those 10 finished lower than 4th in rushing yards, and that came back in 2011, his 1st season at the post with the 49ers. We'll see where Roman lands and who the Ravens select to follow him. Of course, the status of Jackson for 2023 and beyond will likely matter even more for projecting both the player and the Ravens offense. Jackson is set to hit unrestricted free agency in March, but we'd be surprised if Baltimore lets him hit the open market. Baltimore's offense promises to be 1 of the more intriguing storylines to watch this offseason.

View all Baltimore Ravens Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (knee) is facing an "uphill battle" to play in Sunday night's Wild Card game vs. the Bengals, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "He is working, he is trying, he is rehabbing," Rapoport said. "The knee is just not quite right." Jackson went down on December 4 and was initially expected to miss no more than 3 weeks. He's now 5-and-a-half weeks removed from the injury. We'll get Baltimore's first practice report of the week later today, but it sounds like we should expect Tyler Huntley to be under center on Sunday night.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

The Ravens aren't expected to announce their starting QB for today's game vs. the Bengals until pregame warmups, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. QB Lamar Jackson (knee) is out, QB Tyler Huntley (shoulder, wrist) is officially questionable and QB Anthony Brown reportedly took 1st-team reps in practice this week. We'll try to find out who will be under center before kickoff, but this is obviously a situation to avoid in fantasy lineups.

View all Tyler Huntley Shark Bites »

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson's status for the playoffs is "up in the air," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Jackson still hasn't practiced since going down with a sprained PCL on December 4. He reportedly thinks he'll be ready to go next weekend, but the team isn't sure. Jackson's knee is "still not feeling quite right," Rapoport hears. "And because of the way Jackson plays the QB position, because of how active he is, because of how athletic he is, he needs that knee to be 100%." Jackson's status will be the biggest storyline of next week, leading up to the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

View all Lamar Jackson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
Dynasty MVP 348.8
Position Rank #5 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,147
1,878
2,888
Dynasty Write-up
Jackson played under the franchise tag in 2022, a year impacted by a late-season knee injury. While the fantasy numbers dipped when healthy, Jackson still flashed plenty of rushing upside with a pair of 100-yard outings. Now, we wait and see if Jackson re-signs with Baltimore on a short or long-term deal. Some whispers around the league suggest he might play elsewhere in 2023, but HC John Harbaugh has said that Jackson will return.
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