Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Jackson has followed his dominating 2019 fantasy breakout with rankings of QB11 and QB8 in fantasy points per game the past 2 years.
• The biggest change has come in passing-TD rate. That number fell from 9.0% in 2019 to 6.9% in 2020 and then 4.2% last year.
• Jackson’s adjusted yards per pass attempt – a Pro Football Reference stat – have also declined for 2 straight years. The primary culprit there has been an increase in sack rate. Jackson went from 5.4% in 2019 to 7.2% and then 9.0%.
• He still saw a big jump in passing yards per game last season, from 208.5 and 183.8 the previous 2 years to 240.2, ranking 13th in the league.
• Credit a large shift in pass-run split. Baltimore passed (or took a sack) on just 44.1% of offensive snaps in 2020, nearly identical to the team’s 2019 rate. Both ranked lowest in the league by a significant margin. Last year’s Ravens, on the other hand, passed at a 56.4% rate (21st in the league).
• Baltimore has since traded away Marquise Brown, allowed Sammy Watkins to walk and made no significant pass-catching additions. The team also gets RBs J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill back from injuries, drafted RB Tyler Badie and signed free-agent RB Mike Davis. Brown reportedly asked for a trade because of the run-heavy scheme.
• Jackson led all QBs in rushing yards per game for the 3rd straight season. He also led all QBs in total rushing yards as a 2018 rookie, despite starting only 7 games.
• – Jackson’s Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2021 fell for the 2nd straight year. His adjusted completion rate was down slightly – though in line with the previous 2 years – and his total QBR ranked just 17th in the league. That measure includes a QB’s rushing contributions.
• "I think it's the best I've ever seen him throw it thus far," Ravens OC Greg Roman said about Lamar Jackson. He also noted the QB's increased strength, as we've passed along here previously. "He's really worked hard in the offseason, and it's showing," Roman added.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Jackson’s passing declined in 2021 vs. his previous 2 years. Baltimore’s passing-volume increase masked some of that. And Jackson’s rushing will always mask more of it. But it’s fair to wonder whether the Ravens will lean back toward the run (and/or how far) with the backfield returning to health. And it can’t be good for Jackson’s passing to lose his top wideout from the past 2 years. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and the complementary pieces, however, should be enough to support the level of passing production that Jackson needs. That’s because only Jalen Hurts matches Jackson in the amount of fantasy production that comes from rushing (among 10+ game starters in 2021). Even last year’s pass-heavier Ravens still found Jackson generating 31.6% of his fantasy points on the ground. (Hurts hit 39.7%; Josh Allen ranked 3rd at 24.5%.) Jackson has given us no reason to fear a crash in his rushing numbers. So a healthier offense overall should be a positive. And even a return to the extreme run-heaviness of 2019-20 clearly wouldn’t doom the QB’s fantasy outlook.