Lamar Jackson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

We all know how good Jackson is in real life and fantasy at this point. The only real question will be whether you want to pay what it’ll take to draft him this year. Frankly, going either way on that question should be fine. If you’re drafting a bunch of teams, mix in some Jackson for the ceiling. If you’re only drafting a couple/few, it’s OK to primarily focus elsewhere. Jackson’s likely to spend the summer at QB3 on most ADP rankings.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jackson finished his fifth straight season among the top 10 QBs in fantasy points per game. His 2023 scoring average ranked fourth among multi-game starters despite being just the fourth-best scoring average of his own career (depending on your format, of course).
• Jackson rebounded from missing five games each of the previous two years. In 2023, he sat out only a meaningless finale (by coach decision).
• Staying healthy helped Jackson easily set a career high in pass attempts. He actually trailed his 2021 rate in attempts per game: 28.6 vs. 31.8.
• Year 1 under OC Todd Monken did, however, include a career-high 558 dropbacks – 88 more than his previous high (2021).
  • He still ranked just 26th in dropbacks per game among multi-game starters, though.
• Jackson tied his 2022 low mark for rushing attempts per game (9.3) – among five starting seasons. He still checked in second behind only Jalen Hurts in total QB rushes, though (148).
• Jackson’s 821 rushing yards led all QBs by 164, even though his 51.3 yards per game was his lowest mark as starter.
• Jackson in 2023 posted:
  • a career-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt
  • the best adjusted completion rate of his career (77.6%), according to Pro Football Focus
  • his best PFF passing grade since that breakthrough, MVP-winning 2019 campaign
  • just the third-best QBR of his career
• The Ravens climbed to seventh in neutral pass rate under Monken in 2023. They topped out at 12th in that category uncer previous OC Greg Roman and ranked 25th for the 2019-2022 span, Jackson’s starting range.
• Rookie WR Zay Flowers immediately became the lead wideout. The Odell Beckham Jr. experiment yielded nothing special and ended after one season. TE Mark Andrews remained a stellar target when healty. And TE Isaiah Likely filled in well while Andrews was out.

What to Expect in 2024

• The biggest change for 2024 is pretty clearly the Derrick Henry signing. He got $16 million on a two-year deal, including $9 million guaranteed. Expect him to be the first Baltimore RB to crack 200 carries since Mark Ingram (202) in 2019.
• Will that be a problem for Lamar Jackson’s volume? Probably not.
  • Despite increasing pass rate last year, the Ravens also increased their RB carries vs. the previous two years. The team ranked 15th in that category in 2023; 20th and 30th the previous two years.
  • And 2019? Remember, that was Jackson’s high-efficiency starting debut that produced one of the best QB fantasy seasons of all time.
• We’re clearly not going to project Jackson for outlier efficiency. But it’s easy to understand how the best RB he will have ever played with could help open things up.
  • Jackson ranked third last year among starting QBs in the percentage of dropbacks that included run-pass options (RPO). He trailed only Gardner Minshew and Jalen Hurts.
  • Imagine that play style now hitting your defense with the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry combo instead of Jackson plus Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, or Keaton Mitchell. That’s nightmare fuel.
  • Tennessee rookie QB Will Levis ranked 17th in yards per attempt on play-action passes last season, compared with 28th on other plays. Jackson, on the other hand, dropped from fifth in YPA on non-play-action to 22nd on play-action attempts.
  • Perhaps Jackson is less comfy throwing off play action. Or maybe he’ll fare better with one of the league’s premier rushing threats on the other side of the “action.”
• The pass-catching corps shouldn’t be any worse … and might be better.
  • WR Zay Flowers has gained a year of experience.
  • TE Mark Andrews is back healthy, with third-year TE Isaiah Likely as insurance.
  • HC John Harbaugh says he expects to get more out of former first-round WR Rashod Bateman this year. We believe in the talent, if he can stay healthy.
  • WR Nelson Agholor returns to provide solid depth.
  • We’ll see how big a role fourth-round rookie Devontez Walker is expected to play. But he stands 6’3, 200 pounds and averaged 16.8 yards per catch for his college career. There’s at least downfield, big-play upside.
• Jackson remains an inconsistent fantasy scorer. He finished six weeks among the top 6 fantasy QBs last year. But he also had six weekly finishes of 16th or worse.
  • Still, that gives him a higher ceiling than nearly all QBs and no lower a baseline than most of them.