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A third significant knee injury, a brand-new offense, and Tua Tagovailoa in the same QB room have pushed Penix into stash-only territory.
We’re expecting Tagovailoa to win the Week 1 job. And Penix will not be an exciting fantasy option if and when he takes over. He’s only worth considering as a QB3 in superflex and 2-QB leagues.
Customize Penix’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.
Penix threw for 1,807 yards with 9 TDs and 3 INTs in eight games before his Week 11 ACL injury. He added 61 yards and a score on the ground.
Penix ranked 28th among QBs in fantasy points per game over that stretch, cracking the top 12 in just three of eight games and finishing no better than QB10 in any week.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last season, Penix ranked:
His 8.8-yard average target depth was 11th-highest among those 42 QBs. But Penix wasn’t particularly good throwing deep, ranking outside the top 35 QBs in completion rate and PFF grade on passes 20+ yards downfield.
Penix operated in a balanced offense that ranked 19th league-wide with a 56.4% pass rate through Week 10. Penix’s 32.5 pass attempts per game through Week 10 ranked 14th.
He operated behind an offensive line that ranked 14th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 15th in PFF pass-blocking grade.
Atlanta finished 15th in PFF receiving grade, with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson the top three targets.
Penix has now made just 12 starts through two NFL seasons after spending most of his 2024 rookie campaign behind Kirk Cousins.
Among 40 QBs with 300+ pass attempts over the last two seasons, Penix ranks:
He improved his completion rate from 2024 to 2025 (58.1% to 60.1%) but declined in yards per attempt (7.4 to 7.2) and PFF grade (87.6 to 58.0).
Penix’s 2025 season ended on Nov. 16 with what was reported as a partial tear of his left ACL. He underwent surgery on Nov. 25. NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe reported in March that Penix is expected to be ready “at some point” during training camp.
This was the third major knee injury for Penix, who tore his right ACL in both 2018 and 2020. He also suffered a season-ending right shoulder injury in 2019 and a season-ending left shoulder injury in 2021.
Tua Tagovailoa joins Penix in Atlanta’s QB room for 2026.
Tua spent most of the past six seasons as Miami’s starter. He had strong 2022 and 2023 seasons under HC Mike McDaniel but tailed off the last two years, averaging 7.2 and then 6.9 yards per attempt.
Here’s how Tagovailoa and Penix stacked up last season:
Penix and Tagovailoa win in different ways. Penix is the aggressive, big-armed passer, while Tagovailoa plays a more conservative game built on accuracy. Penix has a 9.3-yard career average target depth vs. Tagovailoa's 7.8.
Penix's injury and Atlanta's brand new offense will make it tough for him to win the starting job this summer, so we're currently projecting Tagovailoa as the Falcons' Week 1 starter.
The Falcons return last year’s top three targets in London, Pitts, and Robinson. (Although Pitts is on a franchise tag and has been mentioned as a trade candidate this offseason.)
The Falcons lost last year’s No. 2 WR Darnell Mooney in free agency and will replace him with some combination of Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch, and Olamide Zaccheaus.
Dotson has been a colossal bust since going 16th overall in the 2022 draft, averaging just 380 receiving yards across four NFL seasons.
Branch and Zaccheaus both project as slot receivers. Branch, a third-round rookie, is the most exciting of the trio. He’s an electric athlete and dangerous after the catch. But his college production was built on designed touches and gadget plays. He might not be ready for a big role right away.
Like last year, this remains a top-heavy pass-catching corps that can’t afford injuries to London, Pitts, or Robinson.
The Falcons return four of five starters from last year’s offensive line. Jawaan Taylor will take over for Elijah Wilkinson at RT after arriving in free agency. Taylor has started for the past seven seasons (four with Jacksonville, three with Kansas City) and should be a tangible upgrade.
Atlanta canned HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, and the rest of the staff this offseason. HC Kevin Stefanski takes over, with Tommy Rees as his OC.
Stefanski spent the last six seasons as Browns HC, compiling a 45-56 record. His first four offenses ranked between 14th and 18th in yards before poor QB play sunk the operation the last two years.
Cleveland was generally a run-leaning offense under Stefanski. Here’s where the team ranked in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected over the last six seasons:
Rees notably spent the past two years with Stefanski in Cleveland, including as OC last year. Rees took over play calling from Stefanski in Week 10 last season and is expected to call plays this year.
Based on the history of this coaching staff and the Falcons’ personnel, expect this to be a run-leaning offense in 2026.
Penix has a strong trio of weapons in London, Pitts, and Robinson. That could be enough to make him a decent QB2 in fantasy lineups, with some QB1-level spike weeks.
But he lacks the rushing juice to be a truly exciting fantasy option.
Penix is coming off his third significant knee injury, is in a brand-new offense, and faces new competition from Tagovailoa.
He’ll struggle to win the starting job out of training camp and could spend the entire season sitting behind Tua.
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Tua Tagovailoa Returns to Training Camp, Gains Edge in Week 1 QB Battle
Tua Tagovailoa Returns to Training Camp, Gains Edge in Week 1 QB Battle
The Falcons opened training camp yesterday without their top two QBs in Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. Tagovailoa had been dealing with back tightness, but he's back at practice today. Tagovailoa opened the day doing individual drills, so the back tightness doesn't appear to be a major issue. Penix and Tagovailoa are currently competing to open the season as the starter.
Falcons Open Camp Without Top Two QBs
Falcons Open Camp Without Top Two QBs
Falcons QBs Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa are sidelined for the start of training camp. Penix continues to recover from November surgery to repair his right ACL. Tagovailoa is dealing with a tight back, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, and is expected back next week.
Michael Penix Throwing At OTAs
Michael Penix Throwing At OTAs
Falcons QB Michael Penix is throwing at the team's OTA sessions this week. He's working back from November 25 surgery to repair what was reported as a partial tear of his left ACL.
Michael Penix Expected to Recover from ACL Injury “At Some Point” During Training Camp
Michael Penix Expected to Recover from ACL Injury “At Some Point” During Training Camp
The Falcons expect QB Michael Penix Jr. to be ready at some point during training camp, according to NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe. Penix aggravated a bone bruise and knee sprain and sustained damage to his ACL in Week 11's loss to the Panthers on November 16th. A recovery for training camp would place him back in action about eight months after the injury.
Falcons Expected to Add Tua Tagovailoa
Falcons Expected to Add Tua Tagovailoa
NFL Network reports that the Falcons are expected to sign QB Tua Tagovailoa to a league-minimum deal. Any agreement can't officially be made until the Dolphins' release of the veteran processes later this week.
See whether Michael Penix Jr. is available in your leagues.
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