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Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tua Tagovailoa
MIA

QB MIA

#18 Quarterback

336 Projected Points

ADP: 17.5
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.64

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#18 Quarterback

336 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.5 360/562 4215 25 11 248

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

285.6

DS Projection

336

Consensus

38 other sites
135.25

High Ceiling

403.2

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

- The Dolphins selected Tua 5th overall last year. He was eased into training camp as a result of a dislocated right hip suffered at Alabama in November of ’19.

- Tua also exited college with a pair of high-ankle sprains — one to each ankle. Both required surgery.

-Tua made 9 starts as a rookie, with the 1st coming in Week 8. Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced an ineffective Tua in the 2nd half of games at Denver and at Vegas.

- In 2020, Miami had a low-volume offense (987 plays) with a 56.6% pass rate. The Fins ranked 21st in total plays and 18th in pass rate.

- A conservative Tagovailoa lacked a strong supporting cast and underwhelmed as a fantasy producer with 200.5 passing yards per game, 1.2 passing TDs per game and 12.1 rushing yards per game.

- 74.1% of Tua’s passes were charted as on-target, per Pro Football Reference. That ranked 35th among 44 QBs with 100+ attempts.

- Miami pass catchers combined for a poor 8.8% drop rate alongside Tua.

- The O-line ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus’ pass block grades. Tua frequently got the ball out quickly, with 58% of his attempts coming out in 2.5 seconds or less. That ranked 7th most among 37 QBs with 150+ dropbacks.

- Miami’s supporting cast looks much improved. Speed was added with Round 1 pick Jaylen Waddle and free agent Will Fuller. Note: Fuller will miss Week 1 on suspension for PEDs.

- At Alabama, Tua and Waddle combined for a 74% completion rate and nearly 17 yards per completion.

- The new WRs join DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to form one of the league’s top groups of pass catchers.

- Miami added to the O-line on draft day with Notre Dame OT/OG Liam Eichenberg. With high picks like Austin Jackson (LT) and Robert Hunt (OG) under contract, there’s high upside youth all along this unit.

- Miami moved on from 2020 OC Chan Gailey. They replaced him from within co-OCs Eric Studesville and George Godsey. It’s unknown who will call plays, but in May, RB Myles Gaskin said the playbook will be “much different.”

- In a May interview, Tua admitted the following: “Last year, for me, I wasn’t as comfortable calling plays … I just didn’t have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays….I just rode with the play even if I knew it wasn’t going to work, I was going to try to make it work ... I didn’t actually know the playbook necessarily really really good, and that's my fault."

- Tua also claimed that he feels more comfortable in the offense and will have the freedom to do more at the line of scrimmage entering year 2.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tua failed to meet expectations in a season that saw high-end play from fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The Alabama product never tallied more than 2 passing TDs in a game. He finished as a QB1 in just 1 of 9 starts.

The Dolphins didn’t surround Tua with the environment to succeed, though. That’s clearly changed entering year 2.

Now a full season removed from hip surgery, Tua heads into the summer with the starting job to himself and names like Jaylen Waddle, Will Fuller, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki filling the depth chart. While this offense doesn’t project for high pass volume, a loaded supporting cast puts Tua in a breakout spot. His low-end QB2 ADP only makes him an easier late-round selection.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa feels more comfortable -- both with the offense and his surgically repaired hip -- heading into his 2nd season. "Last year, for me, I wasn't as comfortable just in general. I wasn't comfortable calling plays," Tagovailoa said. "I just didn't have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays. I just rode with the play, even if I knew it wasn't going to work. I was going to try to make it work. I didn't actually know the playbook, necessarily, really, really good, and that's no one else's fault but my fault. Our playcalls were simple when I was in. I didn't have alerts and checks. Where now, I feel comfortable and I can maneuver my way through these things." The Dolphins have designed an offense this offseason that better suits Tua's skill set, according to ESPN's Cameron Wolfe. Tagovailoa also said that his surgically repaired hip feels "10 times" better than last year. With WRs Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle bringing much-needed speed to the offense, the pieces are in place for Tua to take a big step forward in 2021.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

The Dolphins have promoted Eric Studesville and George Godsey to co-OC positions. Studesville has been Miami's RBs coach for the past 3 seasons; Godsey the TEs coach for the past 2. The only NFL OC experience between the 2 comes from Godsey, who was in the role for the Texans in 2015 and 2016. Those teams ranked 19th and 29th in total yards. It's unclear which guy will call plays for the Fins this coming season.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

The Dolphins have fired OC Chan Gailey, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The 69-year-old Gailey was always a puzzling hire and ends up lasting just 1 season in Miami. We'll see who the Fins tab as his replacement, but it's less than ideal that QB Tua Tagovailoa will have another new offense to learn.

Update: ESPN has removed their report that Gailey has been fired. He remains with the team for now. We'll see where this goes.

Update: Gailey has decided to resign, so Miami will be looking for a new OC after all.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins HC Brian Flores said after Saturday night's win that QB Tua Tagovailoa will start next weekend's finale vs. the Bills. The rookie struggled for over 3 quarters vs. the Raiders before giving way to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who chucked for 182 yards and a score in the comeback. Miami's offense has been better with Fitzpatrick all season, but Flores is staying committed to Tagovailoa. He obviously can't be trusted in Week 17 fantasy lineups.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) is officially active for today’s game against the Bengals. The rookie has finished 28th, 17th and 16th among QBs in fantasy points in his 3 starts this season. Despite today’s plus matchup, Tua remains just a QB2.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

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