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Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tua Tagovailoa


#18 Quarterback

336 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.64

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
Tua continued his steady play in a decisive win over the Giants, throwing for 244 yards and 2 TDs in the 20-9 victory. He completed 30 of his 41 passes as he hooked up with 8 different receivers. The connection to rookie and college teammate WR Jaylen Waddle is really flourishing as the pair have 26 completions over the past 3 games. Tua’s TDs came late in the game to seal the deal as the Giants defense did a nice job most of the game keeping him in check.
Tagovailoa has been stellar when throwing more than 30 passes, with 5 of those 6 games completing over 70% of his passes. He has an 11:3 TD:INT ratio when he completes more than 25 passes in games as well. While he may not be the flashy option some other signal callers have become, his consistent play—especially during their 5-game winning streak—has put him in a startable position for the rest of the year. A juicy matchup against the Jets, following a Week 14 bye, gives Miami a good crack at making it 6 in a row. Tagovailoa will be a viable QB1 in that plus draw.
Week 12
In his 2nd start back from a finger injury, Tagovailoa completed 27-of-31 passes for 230 yards and 1 score in Sunday's win over Carolina. He continued to lean on Jaylen Waddle (9-137-1), who has quickly emerged as one of the league’s top young WRs. Next week will likely bring the return of DeVante Parker, although Will Fuller will remain out. Regardless of who's available (or not), the QB looks like a fine spot-start option for a home matchup with the Giants.
Week 8
A hot and cold Tua struggled to keep drives going for an overmatched Fins offense. On the day, Miami went just 4 of 14 on 3rd downs. Tua also turned it over on a late-game pick where he threw late over the middle. On the plus side, he made it through the game healthy (unlike his first meeting with Buffalo). Tua added a rushing TD at the goal line on the second of back to back QB runs. That marked his first rushing score since Week 1. Volume keeps Tua in the streaming mix going forward, but his shaky decision-making and lack of arm strength show up too often to produce an overwhelming amount of confidence. He’ll also remain without Will Fuller for a Week 9 date vs. Houston.
Week 7
Aside from an ugly INT, Tua largely played well against a beatable Atlanta pass D. Tossing 40 passes, he completed 80%(!) for 291 yards and a pair of INTs. Not bad consider he played without Will Fuller and DeVante Parker. Tua hit Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford, Mike Gesicki and Myles Gaskin for scores. Overall, the 2nd-year passer showed improved accuracy and a willingness to push the ball downfield. He even took off and ran when necessary, finishing with 4-29 en route to the overall QB1 week. While he’s built up momentum, a Week 8 date at Buffalo looks like a spot to pull back the reigns. Tua, of course, was knocked out of his 1st matchup with the Bills due to a rib injury.
Week 6
Tua returned from a rib injury to post a 329-2-1 passing line against Jacksonville. He wore a flak jacket for this one but didn’t seem limited. Tua also avoided taking a sack despite attempting 47 passes. Overall, you have to be encouraged by the performance, especially with both DeVante Parker and Will Fuller sidelined. Fuller (broken finger) can’t return until Week 8, but Parker (hamstring) has a shot to suit up next week in a favorable matchup vs. Atlanta. Tua’s likely a top-15 option for that one.
Week 1
Tua’s first start of 2021 turned up some improvement. He pushed the ball downfield more, leading to an average depth of target of 10.1 yards — a top-5 mark on the week. And he did so without Will Fuller (suspension). Still, he showed little in-pocket working through reads. And he ultimately wasn’t very efficient with an adjusted completion rate of 66.7% (2nd worst on the week). He helped his fantasy day with a zone-read rushing score early on. Later, he found Jaylen Waddle on a well-designed goal line play that got him the ball in space. Ultimately, Tua’s QB2 numbers are what we’d expect most weeks. A tough Bills pass D comes to town for Week 2, but at least Tua will get Fuller back.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Dolphins selected Tua 5th overall last year. He was eased into training camp as a result of a dislocated right hip suffered at Alabama in November of ’19.
  • Tua also exited college with a pair of high-ankle sprains — one to each ankle. Both required surgery.
  • Tua made 9 starts as a rookie, with the 1st coming in Week 8. Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced an ineffective Tua in the 2nd half of games at Denver and at Vegas.
  • In 2020, Miami had a low-volume offense (987 plays) with a 56.6% pass rate. The Fins ranked 21st in total plays and 18th in pass rate.
  • A conservative Tagovailoa lacked a strong supporting cast and underwhelmed as a fantasy producer with 200.5 passing yards per game, 1.2 passing TDs per game and 12.1 rushing yards per game.
  • 74.1% of Tua’s passes were charted as on-target, per Pro Football Reference. That ranked 35th among 44 QBs with 100+ attempts.
  • Miami pass catchers combined for a poor 8.8% drop rate alongside Tua.
  • The O-line ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus’ pass block grades. Tua frequently got the ball out quickly, with 58% of his attempts coming out in 2.5 seconds or less. That ranked 7th most among 37 QBs with 150+ dropbacks.
  • Miami’s supporting cast looks much improved. Speed was added with Round 1 pick Jaylen Waddle and free agent Will Fuller. Note: Fuller will miss Week 1 on suspension for PEDs.
  • At Alabama, Tua and Waddle combined for a 74% completion rate and nearly 17 yards per completion.
  • The new WRs join DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to form one of the league’s top groups of pass catchers.
  • Miami added to the O-line on draft day with Notre Dame OT/OG Liam Eichenberg. With high picks like Austin Jackson (LT) and Robert Hunt (OG) under contract, there’s high upside youth all along this unit.
  • Miami moved on from 2020 OC Chan Gailey. They replaced him from within co-OCs Eric Studesville and George Godsey. It’s unknown who will call plays, but in May, RB Myles Gaskin said the playbook will be “much different.”
  • In a May interview, Tua admitted the following: “Last year, for me, I wasn’t as comfortable calling plays … I just didn’t have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays….I just rode with the play even if I knew it wasn’t going to work, I was going to try to make it work ... I didn’t actually know the playbook necessarily really really good, and that's my fault."
  • Tua also claimed that he feels more comfortable in the offense and will have the freedom to do more at the line of scrimmage entering year 2.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tua failed to meet expectations in a season that saw high-end play from fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The Alabama product never tallied more than 2 passing TDs in a game. He finished as a QB1 in just 1 of 9 starts.

The Dolphins didn’t surround Tua with the environment to succeed, though. That’s clearly changed entering year 2.

Now a full season removed from hip surgery, Tua heads into the summer with the starting job to himself and names like Jaylen Waddle, Will Fuller, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki filling the depth chart. While this offense doesn’t project for high pass volume, a loaded supporting cast puts Tua in a breakout spot. His low-end QB2 ADP only makes him an easier late-round selection.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Dolphins fired HC Brian Flores. This one was not expected. Flores lasted 3 seasons in Miami, compiling a 24-25 record. He won 19 games over the past 2 years, though, and seemed to have the Fins heading in the right direction. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Miami is retaining GM Chris Grier. "A power struggle in Miami," Rapoport tweeted. We'll see where the Dolphins go at HC.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) is not listed on the final injury report. He was a full-go in practice on both Thursday and Friday. That finger should be close to 100% this week, making Tua a viable fantasy spot starter in a plus matchup vs. the Jets.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) was upgraded to full participation in Thursday's practice. That makes him easier to trust in this weekend's plus matchup vs. the Jets.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (finger) was limited in Wednesday's practice. He's on track to start vs. the Jets this weekend after playing well in relief of QB Jacoby Brissett Thursday night. But it'd be nice to see Tua get in a full practice or 2 this week.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins HC Brian Flores named QB Tua Tagovailoa his Week 11 starter on Monday. Tagovailoa replaced QB Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd quarter of Thursday night's game and didn't seem bothered by that small fracture in his right middle finger, completing 8 of 13 passes for 158 yards. We'll keep an eye on his practice participation level this week, but Tua gets a nice matchup on Sunday vs. the Jets' bottom-5 pass defense.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

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