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Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tua Tagovailoa
MIA

QB MIA

#18 Quarterback

336 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.64

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

0

DS Projection

17.3

Consensus

38 other sites
19

High Ceiling

24.6

Rest of
Season

20

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
221 1.6 0.8 6 17.3
Weekly Writeup
Questionable (ribs)

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
252.4 1.5 0.7 15 20
Week 1
Tua’s first start of 2021 turned up some improvement. He pushed the ball downfield more, leading to an average depth of target of 10.1 yards — a top-5 mark on the week. And he did so without Will Fuller (suspension). Still, he showed little in-pocket working through reads. And he ultimately wasn’t very efficient with an adjusted completion rate of 66.7% (2nd worst on the week). He helped his fantasy day with a zone-read rushing score early on. Later, he found Jaylen Waddle on a well-designed goal line play that got him the ball in space. Ultimately, Tua’s QB2 numbers are what we’d expect most weeks. A tough Bills pass D comes to town for Week 2, but at least Tua will get Fuller back.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • The Dolphins selected Tua 5th overall last year. He was eased into training camp as a result of a dislocated right hip suffered at Alabama in November of ’19.
  • Tua also exited college with a pair of high-ankle sprains — one to each ankle. Both required surgery.
  • Tua made 9 starts as a rookie, with the 1st coming in Week 8. Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced an ineffective Tua in the 2nd half of games at Denver and at Vegas.
  • In 2020, Miami had a low-volume offense (987 plays) with a 56.6% pass rate. The Fins ranked 21st in total plays and 18th in pass rate.
  • A conservative Tagovailoa lacked a strong supporting cast and underwhelmed as a fantasy producer with 200.5 passing yards per game, 1.2 passing TDs per game and 12.1 rushing yards per game.
  • 74.1% of Tua’s passes were charted as on-target, per Pro Football Reference. That ranked 35th among 44 QBs with 100+ attempts.
  • Miami pass catchers combined for a poor 8.8% drop rate alongside Tua.
  • The O-line ranked 21st in Pro Football Focus’ pass block grades. Tua frequently got the ball out quickly, with 58% of his attempts coming out in 2.5 seconds or less. That ranked 7th most among 37 QBs with 150+ dropbacks.
  • Miami’s supporting cast looks much improved. Speed was added with Round 1 pick Jaylen Waddle and free agent Will Fuller. Note: Fuller will miss Week 1 on suspension for PEDs.
  • At Alabama, Tua and Waddle combined for a 74% completion rate and nearly 17 yards per completion.
  • The new WRs join DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to form one of the league’s top groups of pass catchers.
  • Miami added to the O-line on draft day with Notre Dame OT/OG Liam Eichenberg. With high picks like Austin Jackson (LT) and Robert Hunt (OG) under contract, there’s high upside youth all along this unit.
  • Miami moved on from 2020 OC Chan Gailey. They replaced him from within co-OCs Eric Studesville and George Godsey. It’s unknown who will call plays, but in May, RB Myles Gaskin said the playbook will be “much different.”
  • In a May interview, Tua admitted the following: “Last year, for me, I wasn’t as comfortable calling plays … I just didn’t have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays….I just rode with the play even if I knew it wasn’t going to work, I was going to try to make it work ... I didn’t actually know the playbook necessarily really really good, and that's my fault."
  • Tua also claimed that he feels more comfortable in the offense and will have the freedom to do more at the line of scrimmage entering year 2.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Tua failed to meet expectations in a season that saw high-end play from fellow rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. The Alabama product never tallied more than 2 passing TDs in a game. He finished as a QB1 in just 1 of 9 starts.

The Dolphins didn’t surround Tua with the environment to succeed, though. That’s clearly changed entering year 2.

Now a full season removed from hip surgery, Tua heads into the summer with the starting job to himself and names like Jaylen Waddle, Will Fuller, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki filling the depth chart. While this offense doesn’t project for high pass volume, a loaded supporting cast puts Tua in a breakout spot. His low-end QB2 ADP only makes him an easier late-round selection.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) has been activated from IR and remains on track to start Sunday morning's game vs. the Jaguars in London, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. That's a plus matchup -- but Tagovailoa will be without WRs Will Fuller (finger) and DeVante Parker (hamstring, shoulder).

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins HC Brian Flores confirmed that QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) is on track to start Sunday's game vs. the Jaguars, barring a setback between now and then. We wouldn't trust Tagovailoa in starting lineups outside of 2-QB leagues, but he should be an upgrade over QB Jacoby Brissett for Miami's offense.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) will practice on Wednesday, HC Brian Flores said. “We’re excited to have him back," Flores added. Tagovailoa seems to be trending toward returning for Sunday's game vs. Jacksonville, but we'll keep you updated on his status.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) has been activated from IR. It makes him eligible to return for Sunday's game against the Jaguars but doesn't necessarily mean that he will. We'll track Tagovailoa's progress over the next few days.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins HC Brian Flores said Monday that he's "hopeful" QB Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) can return to practice this week. Tagovailoa is eligible to come off IR for Sunday's game vs. the Jaguars, but this makes it sound like he's not a lock to be ready for that one. We'll monitor Tua's status throughout the week.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

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