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Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTua Tagovailoa's Basic Stats

Tua Tagovailoa
ADP: 8.6
Bye: 10
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.5
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 217
40 Time: 4.79

Tua Tagovailoa's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
297.4 2.1 0.7 6.1 19.8
Weekly Writeup
Tua faces a tough Bills D that's allowed only 6.6 yards per attempt. He'll at least have Jaylen Waddle (concussion) back in the lineup.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
274.9 2.2 0.7 8.8 21

Tua Tagovailoa's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#5 Quarterback

335.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
8.6 345.2/527 4398.7 35.3 10.4 37 141 1.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTua Tagovailoa's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

With help from HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill, Tua enjoyed a breakthrough 2022.

If he can avoid further head injuries, a repeat is well within reach.

Tagovailoa is a risk/reward pick, especially in best ball leagues. Elsewhere, he profiles as a matchup-dependent QB1.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Tua finished 15th among QBs in total fantasy points; 8th in points per game.
  • He ranked as a top-12 fantasy QB five times; a top-6 QB four times.
  • Tua sat 5th in Pro Football Focus passing grade and 3rd in average depth of target (aDOT). He added a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt.
  • Rushing production wasn’t a strong suit, as Tua rushed for only 70 yards on 24 attempts. He posted ten scrambles.
  • New HC Mike McDaniel supplied an excellent match for Tua.
    • A well-schemed offense helped the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle absorb a massive 51% target share.
    • Tua ranked 5th league-wide in RPO pass attempts; 3rd in play-action attempts.
  • Tua suffered two – maybe three – concussions in 2022. He admitted that retirement was an offseason consideration.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Going back to 2017 at Alabama, Tua's never had the same OC in consecutive seasons. That'll change this year with the return of Frank Smith -- plus HC Mike McDaniel and QB coach/pass-game coordinator Darrell Bevell.
  • Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill played all 17 games in 2022 – good injury luck for Tua. But it’s reasonable to expect some missed time from that duo in ‘23.
  • Miami’s pass-catching depth remains thin.
    • Offseason adds Chosen (Robbie) Anderson and Braxton Berrios don’t move the needle much.
    • They let Mike Gesicki walk in free agency.
    • Rookie speedster Devon Achane looks like the most significant offseason addition. He’s already turned heads at OTAs.
  • The Dolphins’ O-line profiles similarly for 2023. The health of 32-year-old LT Terron Armstead remains critical for a unit that ranked top-12 in adjusted sack rate.
  • Concussions will remain at the forefront of Tua’s fantasy prospects. Another head injury could force a significant absence.
  • Tua’s at least tried to address the durability concerns. He showed up to OTAs with added muscle mass.
  • Tua also spent part of the offseason learning judo, with a goal of learning how to brace himself when falling.

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Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

5:20pm EDT 9/24/23

Tua Tagovailoa nearly perfect

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was surgical in Week 3, completing 23 of 26 passes for 309 yards and 4 TDs. The Broncos missed a couple of key defenders, but they were simply dominated in this one. And that was with Tua missing Jaylen Waddle (concussion). His scores went to Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and Devon Achane. A top-3 fantasy QB on the year, Tua travels to Buffalo for Week 4.

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Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 21 of 30 passes for 249 yards with 1 TD and INT apiece in Sunday night’s win vs. the Patriots. His Week 2 stats aren’t as eye-popping as last week’s 466-yard aerial assault, though Miami had significant contributions from RB Raheem Mostert on the ground in this divisional contest. Fantasy managers can confidently start Tagovailoa again next week vs. the Broncos.

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Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill started hot, snagging 11 balls for 215 yards and 2 TDs in a win over Los Angeles. His yardage marked the third-most in a season-opener in league history, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Hill scored from deep and in close, showcasing his extraordinary burst throughout the game. On the day, Hill saw a 33.3% target share and accounted for 46.1% of Tua Tagovailoa’s 466(!) passing yards. If Tua continues to cook, Hill will retain an overall WR1 upside for the road ahead. The upcoming schedule just isn’t a cakewalk: at New England, vs. Denver, and at Buffalo.

View all Tyreek Hill Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa enters Year 4 looking to build off a breakout 2022. He tallied four top-six fantasy finishes, a number that might have been higher if not for several concussions. Overall, Tua benefited from the dynamic pairing of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – plus the scheme of new HC Mike McDaniel. Credit McDaniel for truly emphasizing a Hill–Waddle duo that combined for a 51.2% target share. Tua also ranked 5th in RPO pass attempts; 3rd in play-action throws. 2023 turns up even more speed following the arrival of RB Devon Achane. While we’d still like to see O-line improvement, Tua’s ultimately positioned for a top-12 fantasy season. See exactly where he sits in the QB rankings.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa admitted that he considered retiring after sustaining multiple concussions last season. “Yeah, I think I considered it, you know, for a time, having sat down with my family, having sat down with my wife and having those kind of conversations,” he said. Tua ultimately opted to keep playing, citing his love for the game and his desire for his son to grow up watching his dad play. He's spent part of this offseason doing jiu-jitsu to "learn how to fall." Tagovailoa explained, "Learned some grappling techniques. Learned some other things too that I don’t think I should disclose. But for the most part, learned how to fall. You think it’s easy. Just don’t fall and hit your head. But a lot more to it.” The head injuries add risk to Tua' short- and long-term fantasy outlooks. But he was excellent last year in his first season under HC Mike McDaniel, ranking 8th among QBs in fantasy points per game.

View all Tua Tagovailoa Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
Dynasty MVP 311.4
Position Rank #6 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
970
1,584
2,944
Dynasty Write-up
HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill really elevated Tua’s game in 2022. The young QB managed to overcome concussion scares to post a nice breakout season (3,548-25-8 in 13 games). Only 25, Tua is positioned for multi-year QB1 success...if his health cooperates. The Dolphins picked up his 5th-year option over the winter.
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