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Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTua Tagovailoa's Basic Stats

Tua Tagovailoa
ADP: 9.8
Bye: 6
Experience: 4
Age: 26.3
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 227
40 Time: 4.79

Tua Tagovailoa's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
277.7 1.82 0.8 5 17.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
279.9 1.9 0.7 7.4 19.3

Tua Tagovailoa's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Quarterback

265.9 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
9.8 349.5/514.5 4165.5 27.3 12 28.5 75 4.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTua Tagovailoa's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Credit Tua for rebounding from an injury-filled 2021-2022.

Now, in year three with Mike McDaniel, there should be complete comfort in an offense that also returns target hogs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Tua’s lack of rushing cuts into his ceiling. But as we’ve seen in the past, he’s capable of high-end outcomes in the right matchup. Continue to treat him as a fantasy spot starter.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Tagovailoa pushed aside concussion concerns to stay healthy across 17 games.
    • He set career highs across the board: 560 attempts, 69.3% completion rate, 4,624 yards, and 29 TDs.
    • As for the improved durability: Tua did well to get the ball out quickly (2.26- second average). That was the quickest time among qualifiers.
    • He took a sack on only 4.9% of his dropbacks, a mark only three qualifying QBs beat (Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen).
  • He posted one of the league’s lowest scramble rates (2.7%).
    • He’s managed only 14.4 total fantasy points via rushing from 2022-2023.
  • As colleague Jared Smola noted in this article, Tua’s been boom or bust in 29 healthy games with HC Mike McDaniel.
    • He’s posted seven top-five QB weeks (24%)
    • And 14 weeks (48%) outside the top-15.
    • Essentially, he’s performed better in best ball formats.
  • Tua benefited from another dynamic season from Tyreek Hill. He and Jaylen Waddle combined to miss only four games.
  • That duo combined to see a 50% target share and account for 60.8% of Tua’s yardage.
  • Miami wasn’t a pass-heavy offense. They ranked 12th in pass rate over expected; 22nd in raw pass rate.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Dolphins have stated their desire to extend Tua’s contract this offseason.
  • He dropped 10-15 pounds since season’s end.
    • Here’s HC Mike McDaniel on the reasoning. "We were not on an off-season weight program last year, it was strength... He felt like he could have the same amount of strength and kind of reshape his body and be a little lighter on his feet."
  • The Dolphins return top WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. There’s no reason to expect a role change with that duo.
    • Miami added Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (rookie), Tahj Washington (rookie), and Jonnu Smith.
    • Beckham was fine in 14 games with Baltimore last year. But he turns 32 in November and remains a clear injury risk.
    • Malik looks best suited to contribute among the rookies. He adds an explosive slot element.
    • Smith faded down the stretch in ‘23 but adds a playmaking upgrade on TE Durham Smythe.
  • Miami’s O-line will be one to watch closely. OTs Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson return, but G Robert Hunt departed in free agency.
    • Miami added C Aaron Brewer, but overall, this unit has a lot to prove.
    • Armstead, 33, is also a red flag injury risk.
  • Note: Miami ranked 31st in pass block win rate last season.

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Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA

6 hours ago

Tua Tagovailoa Gets Big Four-Year Extension

The Dolphins and QB Tua Tagovailoa have agreed to a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension, according to NFL Network. Tagovailoa had been in the final year of his rookie deal but is now signed with Miami through the 2028 season. The extension lands Tagovailoa third league-wide in average annual salary, behind only QBs Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

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The Dolphins are set to sign WR Odell Beckham, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The Miami Herald's Barry Jackson reports that Beckham is getting a $3 million base salary with another $5 million available in incentives. The 31-year-old was a part-time player for the Ravens last year, catching just 35 balls across 14 regular season games. But Beckham still flashed big-play pop, averaging a career-high 16.1 yards per catch on a 13.9-yard average target depth. He ranked 27th among 93 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' receiving grades. Beckham will sit behind WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Miami and is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy play if those guys are healthy. But an injury to either could turn Beckham into a potential fantasy spot starter.

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The Dolphins selected Virginia WR Malik Washington in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. A three-star recruit out of Georgia, Washington spent his first four years with an underwhelming Northwestern offense. He finished second on the team in catches and yards in 2021, then jumped to the team lead in both categories in 2022. The primary slot still tallied just 65-701-1 as a senior – but his underlying metrics at least supplied some promise. Washington posted a tiny 1.5% drop rate on 101 targets. He also forced 24 missed tackles, per Pro Football Focus. Last fall, we saw Washington’s best upon transferring to Virginia. The 5’8, 191-pounder crushed previous career highs with 111 catches, 1,384 yards, and 9 TDs. In fact, the yardage ranked fifth in the country. He excelled in contested situations and again proved slippery after the catch. Perhaps most impressive: Washington’s 3.15 yards per route run, which slotted 11th in a sample of 200 WRs. While undersized, Washington has the explosive ability to attract targets out of the slot. Note his 42.5-inch vertical and 10’6” broad jump from the Combine. WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will continue to dominate targets in Miami. But Washington has a real shot to win the No. 3 WR job at some point this season. His competition: Braxton Berrios, River Cracraft, and Erik Ezukanma.

View all Malik Washington Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder, quad) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice. It's confirmation that he'll be ready to go for Sunday night's showdown vs. the Bills.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
Dynasty MVP 247.0
Position Rank #33 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
770
1,256
2,336
Dynasty Write-up
HC Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill really elevated Tua’s game in 2022. The young QB overcame concussion scares to post a nice breakout season (3,548-25-8 in 13 games). Tua stayed healthy (and similarly productive) in 2023 and signed a long-term extension in July.
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