Bottom Line

Williams missed or was limited by injury in six games last year. But his scoring averages in the other 11 landed him 15th among WRs in PPR points and 16th in non-PPR. That followed a top-14 finish across scoring formats in 2021.

The Chargers offense under new OC Kellen Moore should remain pass heavy – and feature more downfield shots, which would be good news for Williams.

The arrival of WR Quentin Johnston adds some risk to Williams’ volume. But we’re ultimately expecting the rookie to steal a bunch of WR Josh Palmer’s targets and have minimal effect on Williams.

Consider Williams a solid WR2 for your fantasy squad, albeit one with plenty of weekly volatility.

What We Learned Last Year

• A Week 7 right high-ankle sprain and Week 11 aggravation cost Williams four full games and most of a fifth last year. He was also knocked out of the regular-season finale with back spasms.
• In his other 11 games, Williams averaged:
  • 7.9 targets
  • 5.3 catches
  • 77.1 yards
  • 0.36 TDs
• His scoring averages in those 11 games ranked 15th among WRs in PPR points and 16th in non-PPR.
• Williams and Keenan Allen were only healthy together for four games last season. In those four games, Allen out-targeted Williams 43 to 28.
• Williams totaled 21 catches for 353 yards and 1 TD in those four games, ranking 14th in PPR points and 12th in non-PPR.
• He had his most productive season in 2021, compiling 76 catches, 1,146 yards, and nine TDs in 16 games to finish WR14 in PPR points and WR11 in non-PPR.
• Williams also set a career high with 1.97 yards per route run in 2021. But his 1.93 yards per route run last year was his second-best mark – and ranked 21st among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
• Williams improved his Pro Football Focus receiving grade from 2021 to 2022, finishing 19th among those 80 qualifiers this past year.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Chargers made a change at OC this offseason, replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore.
• Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards. The Chargers should again be near the top of the league in pass attempts this season.
• The biggest change to the Chargers’ passing game under Moore figures to be more deep shots. Justin Herbert ranked 32nd among 35 qualifiers last year in average depth of throw (7.0 yards) and 26th in percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield (9.7%). Dak Prescott never sunk below an 8.2-yard average depth of throw or 10.7% rate of 20+ yard passes under Moore.
• That’s good news for Williams, a strong downfield weapon. Here’s where he has ranked in Pro Football Focus grades on targets of 20+ yards the past three seasons:
  • 2020 - 19th of 70
  • 2021 - 9th of 69
  • 2022 - 17th of 73
• Williams will face additional target competition with the arrival of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Like Williams, Johnston figures to spend most of his time outside the numbers and is a viable deep threat.
• But Los Angeles’ top 4 WRs last year (Williams, Allen, Josh Palmer, and DeAndre Carter) combined for 354 targets (49.8% share). The Chargers ranked top 7 in total WR catches, yards, and PPR points.
• We’re expecting Johnston to siphon a bunch of targets from Palmer but have a minimal impact on Williams’ volume.