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Mike Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMike Williams's Basic Stats

Mike Williams
ADP: 6.1
Bye: 5
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 28.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.59
Speed Score: 102.30
Burst Score (Rank): 115.80 (22%)

Mike Williams's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.3 71.6 0.5 10.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.8 71.7 0.5 10.2

Mike Williams's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#16 Wide Receiver

149.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
6.1 71.4 1076.2 7 2.7 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMike Williams's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Williams missed or was limited by injury in six games last year. But his scoring averages in the other 11 landed him 15th among WRs in PPR points and 16th in non-PPR. That followed a top-14 finish across scoring formats in 2021.

The Chargers offense under new OC Kellen Moore should remain pass heavy – and feature more downfield shots, which would be good news for Williams.

The arrival of WR Quentin Johnston adds some risk to Williams’ volume. But we’re ultimately expecting the rookie to steal a bunch of WR Josh Palmer’s targets and have minimal effect on Williams.

Consider Williams a solid WR2 for your fantasy squad, albeit one with plenty of weekly volatility.


What We Learned Last Year
  • A Week 7 right high-ankle sprain and Week 11 aggravation cost Williams four full games and most of a fifth last year. He was also knocked out of the regular-season finale with back spasms.
  • In his other 11 games, Williams averaged:
    • 7.9 targets
    • 5.3 catches
    • 77.1 yards
    • 0.36 TDs
  • His scoring averages in those 11 games ranked 15th among WRs in PPR points and 16th in non-PPR.
  • Williams and Keenan Allen were only healthy together for four games last season. In those four games, Allen out-targeted Williams 43 to 28.
  • Williams totaled 21 catches for 353 yards and 1 TD in those four games, ranking 14th in PPR points and 12th in non-PPR.
  • He had his most productive season in 2021, compiling 76 catches, 1,146 yards, and nine TDs in 16 games to finish WR14 in PPR points and WR11 in non-PPR.
  • Williams also set a career high with 1.97 yards per route run in 2021. But his 1.93 yards per route run last year was his second-best mark – and ranked 21st among 80 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Williams improved his Pro Football Focus receiving grade from 2021 to 2022, finishing 19th among those 80 qualifiers this past year.

What to Expect in 2023
  • The Chargers made a change at OC this offseason, replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore.
  • Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards. The Chargers should again be near the top of the league in pass attempts this season.
  • The biggest change to the Chargers’ passing game under Moore figures to be more deep shots. Justin Herbert ranked 32nd among 35 qualifiers last year in average depth of throw (7.0 yards) and 26th in percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield (9.7%). Dak Prescott never sunk below an 8.2-yard average depth of throw or 10.7% rate of 20+ yard passes under Moore.
  • That’s good news for Williams, a strong downfield weapon. Here’s where he has ranked in Pro Football Focus grades on targets of 20+ yards the past three seasons:
    • 2020 - 19th of 70
    • 2021 - 9th of 69
    • 2022 - 17th of 73
  • Williams will face additional target competition with the arrival of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston. Like Williams, Johnston figures to spend most of his time outside the numbers and is a viable deep threat.
  • But Los Angeles’ top 4 WRs last year (Williams, Allen, Josh Palmer, and DeAndre Carter) combined for 354 targets (49.8% share). The Chargers ranked top 7 in total WR catches, yards, and PPR points.
  • We’re expecting Johnston to siphon a bunch of targets from Palmer but have a minimal impact on Williams’ volume.

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Keenan Allen, WR LAC

6:59pm EDT 9/17/23

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams pay off in Week 2

Chargers WR Keenan Allen found the end zone twice in Sunday's OT loss vs. the Titans, totaling 8 receptions on 10 targets for 111 yards. Allen's 31.1 PPR points are a strong contender for this week's No. 1 at the WR position. Teammate Mike Williams also had an effective game, leading Los Angeles with 13 targets and posting 8 catches for 83 yards. We'd anticipated a pass-happy approach for this Chargers' offense under new OC Kellen Moore in 2023, and this week was an example of why fantasy managers should be excited to start this duo in lineups weekly. Week 3's matchup vs. the Vikings should present another excellent spot for solid production for both Allen and Williams.

View all Keenan Allen Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished Week 1 with just 228 passing yards and 1 TD. A short-range toss to TE Donald Parham accounted for his only passing score. Herbert added a second score on a QB sneak, but there wasn’t much to speak of otherwise. Keenan Allen led the way with 6 grabs for 76 yards. Mike Williams — who left briefly for a concussion check — tallied just 45 yards on 4 catches. And Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston mixed in for only 9 yards on 2 receptions. Overall, a slow start isn’t a total surprise given the presence of new OC Kellen Moore (plus a talented Miami defense). Keep expectations high for Sunday’s matchup at Tennessee.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers WR Mike Williams is kicking inside to the slot more often in OC Kellen Moore's offense, according to The Athletic's Daniel Popper. “People are going to have game plans and matchups associated with where he lines up,” Moore said of Williams. “The more you can line him up in different spots, it just makes it more challenging for other teams to focus on him.” Popper writes that, "the results have been impressive thus far." Consider this a reminder that, despite the addition of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston, Williams will remain a big part of this high-scoring Chargers offense. He's a value at his WR26 ADP.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Chargers WR Mike Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 7 last year that cost him four games and most of a fifth. Prior to that injury, though, Williams was sitting ninth among WRs in PPR points. He ranked 11th at his position in targets (59), 11th in catches (37), ninth in yards (495), and 10th in TDs (3) from Week 1 to 7. That followed a healthy 2021 season that saw Williams rack up 76 catches, 1,146 yards, and nine TDs in 16 games to finish WR14 in PPR points. He faces additional target competition this year with the arrival of first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston. But Williams is certainly capable of comfortably beating his recent WR25 ADP. He sits a handful of spots higher in our PPR WR Rankings.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Chargers WR Keenan Allen suggested the team will attempt more deep passes under new OC Kellen Moore. “Obviously, Justin [Herbert] has a cannon,” Allen said. “Mike [Williams] goes deep. He has a new guy named Quentin Johnston. He can go deep. We’re probably going to be going deep.” Justin Herbert wasn’t particularly aggressive last year. Only 9.7% of his attempts traveled 20+ air yards, while his average depth of target (aDOT) sat at just 7.0 yards. But given the arrival of Johnston and a solid O-line, Herbert should be someone you’re targeting in fantasy drafts.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Mike Williams, WR LAC
Dynasty MVP 101.0
Position Rank #33 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
349
536
792
Dynasty Write-up
High ceiling… low floor… and more injuries. Williams’ 2022 really didn’t show us anything new. He did sign a new contract last March, tying him to the team through the 2024 season.
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