Mike Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Chargers selected TCU WR Quentin Johnston with the 21st pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston goes 6’3, 208 pounds but plays smaller. That’s not necessarily a knock. He’s one of the most impressive after-catch receivers we’ve seen come into the league in recent memory. He combines good agility and burst with plenty of physicality with the ball in his hands. Johnston averaged a huge 8.9 yards after the catch at TCU last year. He’s also a weapon on deep balls, leaving school with a career 19.0 yards-per-catch average. But Johnston struggles more than you’d expect in tight coverage. He converted just 42.7% of his contested opportunities over three college seasons, according to PFF, including just eight of 23 (34.8%) last year. His hands are inconsistent (10.7% drop rate last year). And his route running needs work. Johnston certainly isn’t the safest WR prospect – but he might have the highest fantasy ceiling in this year’s class. Landing in a Justin Herbert-led offense only helps. Just keep 2023 expectations in check, as long as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy. Current projections land Johnston in WR4/5 range.

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The Chargers have restructured WR Keenan Allen's contract, shaving $8.9 million off his 2023 salary cap number, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. That's big for two reasons: 1) The team opened the offseason with one of the league's worst cap situations. 2) That plus Allen's contract had driven speculation the Chargers would cut or trade him. You can now bet on that not happening. And that makes Allen a strong value in current best ball drafting. His ADP has sat in WR3 range since 2023 drafting began. Even with big-time injury issues last year, Allen still finished the season 12th among WRs in PPR points per game and 13th in half-PPR. L.A. also restructured WR Mike Williams' contract to save another $5.5 million in cap space.

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The Chargers are set to hire Kellen Moore as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. Although we just learned that Moore was done in Dallas on Sunday, the Chargers had been working on this hire "for a while," per Rapoport. It's a great get for QB Justin Herbert and Co. Moore helped the Cowboys to top-11 finishes in both points and total yards in 3 of his 4 seasons -- with the only exception being 2020, when QB Dak Prescott missed most of the year. That included a 1st-place finish in both points and yards in 2021. Moore's Dallas offenses were balanced to run-leaning in terms of Pass Rate Over Expected, although he certainly seems willing to adjust his play calling to the personnel. Moore also deploys a fast-paced attack, with the Cowboys ranking top 4 in both pace and situation-neutral pace in all 4 of his seasons.

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The Chargers have fired OC Joe Lombardi, according to NFL Network. Lombardi piloted Los Angeles to top 9 finishes in total yards in each of the past 2 seasons, despite dealing with a bunch of injuries to offensive linemen and skill-position players. But his scheme simply didn't accentuate QB Justin Herbert's arm talent, as evidenced by his 7.6 and 6.4 intended air yards per pass attempt marks over the last 2 years. That 6.4-yard mark this past season ranked 31st among 33 qualifiers. We'll see who the Chargers tab to replace Lombardi -- but the change is more likely than not to be good news for Herbert's fantasy value.

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