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Rachaad White - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsRachaad White's Basic Stats

Rachaad White
ADP: 3.6
Bye: 11
Experience: 3
Age: 25.5
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 214
40 Time: 4.48

Burst Score (Rank): 127.10 (86%)

Rachaad White's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
52 0.37 3.3 25.8 0.14 10.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
56.8 0.4 3.3 23.5 0.1 10.8

Rachaad White's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#19 Running Back

210.4 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.6 207.3 787 5.6 0.1 1.5 49.6 388.2 2.11

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsRachaad White's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Our 2023 Breakout Pick, White delivered for the Buccaneers as a receiving RB who was a solid RB1 in PPR leagues.

But the Buccaneers lost OC Dave Canales and are changing offenses once again. Though White will be used heavily in the game plan, it may be difficult for him to repeat last year’s success.

They also added rookie RB Bucky Irving, who brings receiving upside.

White is a high-end RB2 both in ADP and our rankings accounting for his receptions regressing to the mean and the Buccaneers’ offense as a whole taking a step backward.

What We Learned Last Year

  • White’s 1,539 total yards ranked fourth among RBs. His 64 catches also ranked fourth.
  • He did not miss any games due to injury. He has not sustained an injury in his NFL career.
  • White ranked as the PPR RB4 in total fantasy points and RB10 in points per game.
    • He finished RB12 or better nine times. He recorded three games between RB13 and RB24.
  • He ranked 42nd among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 40.8%.
  • White played 78% of the Buccaneer’s offensive snaps last season (the highest snap percentage of any RB in the league).
  • He significantly improved his per-game statistics from his rookie season.
    • 16.0 carries (7.59)
    • 58.2 rushing yards (28.3)
    • 0.35 rushing TDs (0.06)
    • 4.12 targets (3.41)
    • 19.9% Opportunity Share (11.9%)
    • 3.76 catches (2.94))
    • 32.3 receiving yards (17.1)
    • 0.18 receiving TDs (0.12)
  • Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, White ranked:
    • 44th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
    • 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
    • 46th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • His receiving metrics were better. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets, White ranked:
    • 21st in PFF receiving grade
    • 19th in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

  • White enters his third season with the Buccaneers under HC Todd Bowles
  • New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
    • In 2022, the Rams ranked 25th with 411 rushing attempts.
  • The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second best in the division.
  • White enters his third season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with White’s career produces at 98% of his peak value at age-25.
  • The Bucs added RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round of this spring’s draft. He’s undersized and tested poorly at the Combine. But Irving tallied 2,238 rushing yards, 712 receiving yards, and 21 TDs at Oregon over the past two seasons.

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Mar'Keise Irving, RB TB

1:23pm EDT 4/27/24

Buccaneers draft backfield challenger in Bucky Irving

The Buccaneers drafted Oregon RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Irving earned 133 carries as a freshman at Minnesota, but left after that season. He transferred to Oregon in 2022 and immediately earned a 1A backfield role. That year, the 192-pounder showed surprising power with 4.36 yards after contact per attempt. Nearly 22% of his carries went for 10+ yards en route to a career-best 6.8 yards per carry. Irving struggled with drops, but that issue proved less worrisome in 2023. Irving even led the nation in receptions by a RB (55). He showed scheme versatility by lining up out wide on 13.2% of his passing snaps. He played the slot nearly 10% of the time. On the ground, Irving remained productive while running both gap and zone concepts. The junior posted career highs in carries (186), yards (1,192), and TDs (11). By mid-winter, it looked like Irving had a chance to be among the first couple of RBs selected. Then came a horrid NFL Combine that included a 2.25 Relative Athletic Score. Irving posted a 26th-percentile broad jump (9'7) and 4th-percentile vertical (29.5 inches). He came off the board sixth among RBs, though, and lands in a Tampa Bay backfield that presents opportunity. Rachaad White enjoyed a breakout 2023 but did so primarily thanks to touch volume. He ranked sixth-lowest among qualifiers in rush yards over expected per attempt, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Among 63 RBs with at least 60 carries, White ranked just 48th in yards after contact per attempt (according to Pro Football Focus). He even checked in just 27th in PFF receiving grade among 61 RBs with at least 20 targets. Expect Irving to siphon some work from White right away, with a chance to keep earning more. This is a good landing spot for Irving's dynasty outlook. We'll see where he lands in rookie ADP.

View all Mar'Keise Irving Shark Bites »

Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles told reporters at the Scouting Combine that he'd "definitely like to have another back in here to take some of the weight off" RB Rachaad White. That statement shouldn't surprise anyone. White ranked sixth in the league in opportunity share last season and second in carries. He remained inefficient as a runner, though. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and ranked 38th among 44 qualifying RBs in rushing success rate. We're not betting Tampa Bay will replace White as the backfield leader. But the team would clearly like to upgrade on the rest of its 2023 backfield. And that's likely to cut into White's work share some. You might be surprised to see where White sits in our 2024 RB rankings, because we're already factoring in that expectation.

View all Rachaad White Shark Bites »

Liam Coen is expected to be named the Bucs' new OC, according to NFL Network. Coen broke into the NFL coaching ranks as a Rams assistant under HC Sean McVay from 2018 to 2020. He headed to the college ranks in 2021 as Kentucky's OC, re-joined McVay as Rams OC in 2022, and then bounced back to Kentucky's OC job this past year. The most noteworthy aspect of this hire is that Coen spent the second half of that 2022 season with QB Baker Mayfield, who's scheduled to hit free agency next month. A return to Tampa Bay seems to make the most sense for both sides.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Buccaneers RB Rachaad White went quiet in Week 17 vs. the Saints. The second-year back ended Sunday with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries with 4 receptions for 24 yards. Despite the disappointing finish, White has enjoyed a breakout season. Through Week 17, he sits fifth among RBs in total PPR points and ninth in points per game. White has already nearly doubled his carries (253) and rushing yards (915) vs. last year, while averagingof 3.8 receptions per game. This usage is encouraging as we look ahead to his age-25 season. Treat White as a borderline RB1 in dynasty formats.

View all Rachaad White Shark Bites »

Buccaneers RB Rachaad White again shined as the focal point of Tampa Bay's offense, totaling 25 carries for 102 rushing yards in Week 14 vs. the Falcons. The second-year back also roped in 2 catches for 33 yards and a TD in the contest. White has now seen at least 20 carries in three of his last five games and sets up fantasy managers well with a true workhorse role. He'll look to continue his fantasy dominance again in Week 15 vs. the Packers, a defense that's surrendered the third-most rushing yards (1,635) and yards per game (136.3) in the NFL this season. We'll see how they fare on Monday night vs. the Giants, but it's worth noting that Green Bay has allowed four straight games with at least 140 yards to opposing offenses. You're in excellent shape if you're rolling into the fantasy playoffs with White on your roster.

View all Rachaad White Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Rachaad White, RB TB
Dynasty MVP 105.3
Position Rank #31 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
368
548
838
Dynasty Write-up
We were pumped to see White — an athletic back with pass-catching ability — land in Round 3 in 2022. He managed to get on the field early and eventually work in tandem with Leonard Fournette. 2023 turned up workhorse usage, boosted by a thin backfield and a surprisingly effective Baker Mayfield. However, we're baking in some regression for dynasty, as his RB4 finish (PPR) will be tough to repeat. He'll face legit competition from rookie Bucky Irving.
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