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Robert Woods - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsRobert Woods's Basic Stats

Robert Woods
ADP: 22.2
Bye: 7
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 31.4
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.51
Speed Score: 95.80
SPARQx (Rank): 96.80 (28%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.50 (21%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.62 (13%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.81 (14%)

Robert Woods's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 48.5 0.3 6.7
Weekly Writeup
Woods has quietly paced his teammate Nico Collins with a 22.4% target share through two games of the 2023 season. We like Woods as a deeper league flex option this week, though last week's emergence of rookie wideout Nathaniel 'Tank' Dell (7-72-1) makes it difficult to determine which player is the second WR in Houston to trust moving forward.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4 44 0.2 5.6

Robert Woods's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#63 Wide Receiver

91.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
22.2 64.3 684.3 3.9 1.7 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsRobert Woods's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

No one should expect big things from Woods in his age-31 season, in a Texans offense that’s likely to rank among the league’s bottom half both overall and for passing. But no one is.

His ADP for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC drafts, and others find Woods outside the top 80 at WR. From that range, anything he can offer your team is a bonus.

The range of outcomes here includes leading Houston in targets and supplying top-45 PPR production at the position. That’s not the kind of player you need to include in your draft plans. But there’s no downside to getting some late Woods shares.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Woods endured easily his worst NFL season by pretty much any measure.
    • His 3.1 receptions per game were his lowest since his 2013 rookie campaign.
    • Woods’ 31.0 yards per game fell 8.4 yards short of his previous low.
    • He posted career lows in yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route.
    • Woods earned his lowest Pro Football Focus receiving grade since 2015 and the third-lowest of his career
  • How much of that should we attribute to the then-30-year-old coming off a November ACL tear? That factor certainly didn’t help.
  • Woods also was in his first – and only – year with the Titans, who ranked just 20th in pass-offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
    • His 3.1 catches per game led the team. But Woods ranked 10th among Titans in yards per catch.
    • He also trailed rookie WR Treylon Burks (and others) in catch rate, despite ranking just seventh among Tennessee WRs in average target depth.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Woods signed a two-year deal with Houston that includes $10 million. That makes him look like a near-lock for starter duty in an offense that returns no players who reached 40 catches for last year’s Texans.
  • Woods has finished among the top 40 WRs in target share every year since leaving Buffalo. That included top-30 rankings across his Rams campaigns, with multiple top-15 years.
  • He heads into his age-31 season. Since Woods entered the league, we’ve seen:
    • 53 WR seasons of 50+ catches at 31 or older
    • 35 seasons of 60+
    • 22 seasons of 70+
    • 13 seasons of 80+
  • Woods faces primary target competition from:
    • Third-year WR Nico Collins
    • Second-year WR John Metchie (who missed his rookie season)
    • TE Dalton Schultz, who arrived on a one-year free-agent deal
    • Third-round rookie WR Tank Dell
  • That group doesn’t present any locks for specific roles or production, especially under a new coaching staff and with a rookie QB.
  • Woods has been a shorter-range operator in recent seasons, even before his ACL tear. According to PFF, he posted an average depth of target 9.6 or higher in each of his first six seasons. His past four, however, have all come in at 8.7 or shorter.
  • That should allow Woods and Collins (a downfield worker) to complement each other. Metchie is a wild card after missing his rookie season.
  • Metchie’s built more like a slot WR than outside NFL WR (5’11, 189 pounds). But he also spent just 28.9% his college pass snaps in the slot, according to PFF. Woods spent 72.1% of his pass snaps outside last year, but that was his highest rate since 2013.
  • For his career, Woods has run 58.5% outside. Don’t be surprised if he and Metchie – and Tank Dell and/or anyone else who mixes in significantly – move between those areas in 3+ WR sets.

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Nico Collins, WR HOU

6:27pm EDT 9/17/23

Nico Collins goes berserk in Week 2

Texans WR Nico Collins led the team in receiving with 7 catches, a monstrous 146 receiving yards, and a TD in Week 2 vs. the Colts. Rookie Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell saw the most targets (10) and racked up 7 catches for 72 yards and a TD in the contest. Robert Woods was heavily involved again, logging 6 catches for 74 yards. As long as Houston continues to play from behind on a weekly basis, there’ll be plenty of fantasy scoring opportunities for these pass-catchers. Week 3 vs. the Jaguars projects to be another game in which the Texans will have to throw a lot to keep up.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (shoulder) is expected to play vs. the Colts today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Stroud was added to the injury report and limited in practice on Friday with a sore right shoulder. He's no better than a low-end QB2 in Week 2 fantasy lineups, but his availability is good news for Houston's offense.

View all C.J. Stroud Shark Bites »

Texans QB C.J. Stroud (shoulder) was added to the injury report and limited in Friday's practice. He's listed as questionable for this weekend's game vs. the Colts. Per insider Aaron Wilson, Stroud "didn't do much" on Friday to "rest sore right, throwing shoulder, but is expected to try to play against Colts." That doesn't sound great. Hopefully Stroud wasn't in your Week 2 fantasy plans. QB Davis Mills will start on Sunday if Stroud can't. The situation adds downside to Houston's pass-catchers.

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Texans WRs Nico Collins and Robert Woods combined to draw nearly half of QB C.J. Stroud's 44 pass attempts in Sunday's loss to the Ravens. Collins led the team with 11 looks, catching 6 passes for 80 yards. Woods drew 10 targets and caught 6 for 57 yards. No other Texan drew more than 4 looks. WR Tank Dell, WR Noah Brown, and RB Mike Boone tied for third with 4 apiece. Target shares in the 22%+ range would make Collins and Woods decent-to-good PPR options going forward. Each is a fine reserve option in leagues of 12+ teams.

View all Nico Collins Shark Bites »

ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime says in his final roster projection that WR Noah Brown has been running as a starter alongside Robert Woods and Nico Collins "throughout camp." He adds that "there's a chance midway through the season [Tank Dell] becomes a starter." As for second-year WR John Metchie, Bien-Aime calls him only one of the "remaining receivers." The article even mentions sixth-round rookie WR Xavier Hutchinson "sometimes" running with the starters. Metchie's comeback from leukemia is a great story no matter what. But he looks like a fantasy afterthought. Brown's name will be worth keeping in mind for DFS and the final rounds of best ball tournament drafts. But we're not expecting this offense to support multiple fantasy-starter pass catchers. Collins remains the top Texans WR in our fantasy football rankings. Woods has been a PPR value throughout draft season because he stays on the board until the very end (and often beyond). Dell is intriguing as a late-draft stash in deeper leagues.

View all Noah Brown Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Robert Woods, WR HOU
Dynasty MVP 39.2
Position Rank #97 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
141
210
285
Dynasty Write-up
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