Bottom Line

No one should expect big things from Woods in his age-31 season, in a Texans offense that’s likely to rank among the league’s bottom half both overall and for passing. But no one is.

His ADP for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC drafts, and others find Woods outside the top 80 at WR. From that range, anything he can offer your team is a bonus.

The range of outcomes here includes leading Houston in targets and supplying top-45 PPR production at the position. That’s not the kind of player you need to include in your draft plans. But there’s no downside to getting some late Woods shares.

What We Learned Last Year

• Woods endured easily his worst NFL season by pretty much any measure.
  • His 3.1 receptions per game were his lowest since his 2013 rookie campaign.
  • Woods’ 31.0 yards per game fell 8.4 yards short of his previous low.
  • He posted career lows in yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route.
  • Woods earned his lowest Pro Football Focus receiving grade since 2015 and the third-lowest of his career
• How much of that should we attribute to the then-30-year-old coming off a November ACL tear? That factor certainly didn’t help.
• Woods also was in his first – and only – year with the Titans, who ranked just 20th in pass-offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
  • His 3.1 catches per game led the team. But Woods ranked 10th among Titans in yards per catch.
  • He also trailed rookie WR Treylon Burks (and others) in catch rate, despite ranking just seventh among Tennessee WRs in average target depth.

What to Expect in 2023

• Woods signed a two-year deal with Houston that includes $10 million. That makes him look like a near-lock for starter duty in an offense that returns no players who reached 40 catches for last year’s Texans.
• Woods has finished among the top 40 WRs in target share every year since leaving Buffalo. That included top-30 rankings across his Rams campaigns, with multiple top-15 years.
• He heads into his age-31 season. Since Woods entered the league, we’ve seen:
  • 53 WR seasons of 50+ catches at 31 or older
  • 35 seasons of 60+
  • 22 seasons of 70+
  • 13 seasons of 80+
• Woods faces primary target competition from:
  • Third-year WR Nico Collins
  • Second-year WR John Metchie (who missed his rookie season)
  • TE Dalton Schultz, who arrived on a one-year free-agent deal
  • Third-round rookie WR Tank Dell
• That group doesn’t present any locks for specific roles or production, especially under a new coaching staff and with a rookie QB.
• Woods has been a shorter-range operator in recent seasons, even before his ACL tear. According to PFF, he posted an average depth of target 9.6 or higher in each of his first six seasons. His past four, however, have all come in at 8.7 or shorter.
• That should allow Woods and Collins (a downfield worker) to complement each other. Metchie is a wild card after missing his rookie season.
• Metchie’s built more like a slot WR than outside NFL WR (5’11, 189 pounds). But he also spent just 28.9% his college pass snaps in the slot, according to PFF. Woods spent 72.1% of his pass snaps outside last year, but that was his highest rate since 2013.
• For his career, Woods has run 58.5% outside. Don’t be surprised if he and Metchie – and Tank Dell and/or anyone else who mixes in significantly – move between those areas in 3+ WR sets.