Roschon Johnson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Johnson could beat out Khalil Herbert for the No. 2 role. But the upside is limited without a D’Andre Swift injury. Johnson looks more interesting for dynasty formats than redraft at the moment.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Bears liked Johnson’s ability in the passing game right away. He drew 7 targets to tie for the team lead in Week 1, catching a team-high six passes for 35 yards.
• Johnson would finish the season tops among Chicago RBs in targets, catches, and receiving yards. He also ranked fourth on the team in targets and yards; third in receptions.
• Johnson trailed Khalil Herbert, however, in yards per catch (6.7 to 6.1) and receiving success rate (41.9% to 27.5%, according to Pro Football Reference).
• He also checked in just fourth on the team – and third among RBs – in carries, despite playing more games than both Herbert and D’Onta Foreman.
  • Johnson drew 5.4 carries per game vs. 11.0 for Herbert and 12.1 for Foreman.
  • He also trailed Herbert and Foreman in yards after contact per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus – as well as elusive rating and rushing grade.

What to Expect in 2024

• Johnson’s still relatively new to the position. He shifted from QB to RB midway through his freshman season at Texas. And then he had to work behind Bijan Robinson.
• He’s likely still developing, which complicates his competition with Khalil Herbert.
• Of course, the Bears capped the upside for both RBs by paying up for D’Andre Swift in free agency. Chicago paid him clear lead-back money. And Swift’s strength conflicts with Johnson’s.
  • Since he entered the league in 2020, Swift ranks fourth among RBs in receptions. Only Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey have caught more passes at the position in that span.
• Johnson leads the 2024 RB group in size, which could help him garner goal-line opportunities. He led Herbert in that category last year. D’Onta Foreman is gone, and D’Andre Swift has never been a goal-line winner thus far in his NFL career.