Bottom Line

Swift doesn’t project well for fantasy, and the reasons aren’t hard to find.

Jalen Hurts and Rashaad Penny – if healthy – impede the former Lions’ path to goal-line carries.

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert stand in the way of a high target ceiling.

So drafting Swift at his current Round 5 ADP (RB21) is a bet on his high-end talent delivering in a strong environment. It’s possible he pays off there. But fantasy’s a game of probabilities, and they’re not in Swift’s favor this fall.

What We Learned Last Year

• Swift’s 2022 season began poorly.
  • He sustained an ankle sprain in Week 1.
  • Two weeks later, he suffered a sprained shoulder.
• In total, Swift sat out three games. He has now missed 10 games through three seasons.
• When active, Swift produced on limited chances for an upstart Detroit offense.
  • Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, Swift ranked:
    • tied for second in yards per carry
    • 16th in yards after contact per attempt
    • fifth in breakaway percentage
    • 10th in elusive rating.
  • In a sample of 19 RBs with 50+ targets, Swift ranked fifth in yards per catch; third in yards per route run.
  • Swift reached 46 catches in each of his first three seasons.
• Swift showed an explosive ceiling with four top-6 PPR finishes last season. But he also ranked RB30 or worse five times.
• Jamaal Williams cost Swift a ton of fantasy points.
  • Williams saw a whopping 45 carries inside the 10-yard line, easily the most league wide.
  • Swift earned only 11 carries in that range.
• He ran behind one of the league’s top O-lines.
• He also benefited from one of QB Jared Goff’s best seasons. Goff ranked top-6 in passing yards, passing TDs, and QBR.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Eagles traded for Swift during the 2023 NFL Draft. All it took was a 2025 fourth-rounder and a swap of 2023 seventh-rounders.
  • "He's got big-play ability as a runner and a receiver," Eagles GM Howie Roseman said at the time. "We saw it firsthand when we were in Detroit the first game of the [2022] season."
• The Eagles let Miles Sanders and his 259 carries walk in free agency.
• Rashaad Penny joined on a cheap one-year deal with only $600K guaranteed.
• Penny’s history suggests he’s the more efficient runner, but he’s also an injury risk.
  • Penny missed 12 games last year with a tibia fracture.
  • The 27-year-old has missed 40 games over five seasons. His single-season high in games played – 14 – came as a rookie.
• Swift’s path to scoring upside has a hurdle beyond the 220-pound Penny. QB Jalen Hurts popped in 11 TDs from inside the 10-yard line in 2022.
• Swift’s target upside doesn’t look great as long as A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert remain healthy.
  • Kenneth Gainwell also returns as a part-time player.
  • The Philly offense produced a 12% target share to RBs last year – second lowest league wide.
• This O-line still projects as one of the best in the league. We’re not too concerned about the loss of veteran G Isaac Seumalo.