Ty Chandler - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Chandler flashed in the second half of last season and has garnered praise from his coach. But the Vikings also imported a far more accomplished RB this offseason. Chandler will remain involved but will have a hard time being fantasy relevant while Aaron Jones is healthy. He’s a decent handcuff-level stash.

What We Learned Last Year

• HC Kevin O’Connell clearly didn’t like Chandler as much at the beginning of the season as he did by the end.
• The 2022 fifth-round pick totaled just eight carries and six targets through the first nine games. That doesn’t happen with a RB you’re excited about, especially when your starter is Alexander Mattison. The Vikings also acquired Cam Akers and played him ahead of Chandler during that span.
• But Akers tore an Achilles’ tendon in Week 9. And then Mattison left Week 10 with a concussion. Chandler led that game with 15 carries but then worked as the RB2 over the next three contests with Mattison back.
• Then Mattison left Week 14 with an ankle injury. Chandler filled in there, and then broke out with a 23-132-1 rushing line and 3-25 receiving as the Week 15 feature back.
• Vikings coaches kept Chandler working ahead of Mattison the rest of the way, but he averaged just 10 carries, 42 rushing yards, 1.7 receptions, and 14.7 receiving yards over the final three contests.
• For the season, Chandler ranked a solid 31st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade among 78 RBs with 40+ carries.
• He ranked 44th in yards after contact per carry and 56th in elusive rating.

What to Expect in 2024

• O’Connell has spoken highly of Chandler this offseason, enough to indicate that he’ll have a solid role even with Aaron Jones entering the fold.
• That’s easier to believe given that Jones has averaged 12.1 carries per game for his career. Jones increased his carries per game each of the past two years but is coming off the most time lost to injury of his career.
  • Jones missed six whole games and parts of several others while dealing with multiple lower-body injuries.
  • He also closed 2023 with five straight games of 18+ carries and more than 100 yards rushing.
• O’Connell has specifically praised Jones’ ability in the passing game this offseason and stated that Chandler needs further development in that area.
• That’s significant for a team that ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate over the past two years (O’Connell’s stint).