Bottom Line

Allgeier looks like a high-level handcuff behind Bijan Robinson in 2023.

Whether he can be a standalone fantasy contributor will depend primarily on just how high the rushing rate remains in Atlanta.

Don’t start the season expecting Allgeier to be worth setting in your lineup in leagues of 12 teams or fewer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Allgeier didn’t really get going until after the bye.
• He did see a slight bump in work across weeks 5-9, with Cordarrelle Patterson out. But even then, Allgeier topped 41.9% carry share just once in four games.
• Overall, Allgeier garnered just 31.3% of Falcons carries through the 13 games before the team’s bye. He averaged 10.1 rushes per game over that span.
• The fifth-round rookie jumped to 56% carry share and 19.8 carries per game over the final four contests, after the bye.
• He remained a limited passing-game contributor all year, exceeding one target in a game only three times en route to 17 total looks. Allgeier did catch 16 of those for 139 yards and a TD (8.7 yards per reception).
• Among 61 RBs with at least 70 carries (playoffs included) last year, Allgeier ranked:
  • 6th in Pro Football Focus run grade
  • 6th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 6th in elusive rating
  • T-12th in yards per carry
• Allgeier also ranked ninth in the league in rush yards over expected per carry. Cordarrelle Patterson checked in 14th, among 36 RBs with 90+ carries.

What to Expect in 2023

• Allgeier isn’t likely to find more work in Year 2. After limiting their investment into RB over HC Arthur Smith’s first two seasons, the Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson eighth overall. That certainly seems to point to workhorse usage – at least a featured role.
• Smith and GM Terry Fontenot preached “positionless” football after the Robinson selection, primarily in answer to how there might be room for multiple RBs.
• Robinson, in particular, is capable of running WR routes. And early practice videos have already showed him lining up in WR positions at times.
• Allgeier clearly had his opportunity ceiling lowered quite a bit by Robinson’s arrival. But he should also be the No. 2 rusher. And Atlanta’s offense ranked second most run-heavy in the league last year.
• Don’t be surprised if the Falcons move a bit more toward the pass in 2023, however. The team went from 32nd in neutral-situation pass rate over Marcus Mariota’s 13 starts last year to 24th over Desmond Ridder’s four starts. The 2021 offense ranked 14th in neutral pass rate.
• Patterson remains as competition. But he carried just 36 times vs. Allgeier’s 79 over last season’s final four games. That was 56% to 25.5% in Allgeier’s favor in carry share.