FF Tips

2019 TE Strength of Schedule

By Matt Schauf 6:07am EDT 7/31/19


Many things broke right in helping Eric Ebron and Jared Cook to surprising fantasy success last year. But it didn’t hurt either top-5 TE to face 5 opponents that finished among the bottom 9 in TE points allowed.

Jimmy Graham, on the other hand, met 5 defenses that ranked among the top 9 in halting TEs. He faced none from the bottom 9. He wound up 20th in PPR points per game.

Who might find some help or hindrance in his 2019 schedule? We’ll get to that below, but let’s dig through some numbers to get there.


Effects on TE Scoring

You might recognize the chart below from other articles in this series, either this year’s edition or last year’s. I started with the median points allowed for each season and then compared each spot in that year’s rankings to that median. The resulting percentage shows how much the defense at each ranking spot added or removed from TD scoring vs. the league median.

Here, I’ve combined all 11 seasons to find the median percentage for each spot in the rankings over the full span. The “Diff” column shows the difference between each pair of ranking spots (by percentage points, rather than true percentages).


Just like the other positions, the top and bottom of the rankings find bigger gaps in scoring impact. Going with median rather than average shaved a few percentage points but didn’t significantly change the results.

We’re still looking at the top 9 defenses taking away 10+% of TE points, while the bottom 9 defenses add about 10+% to TE scoring. So we’ll continue to use those ranges for defenses to target or avoid.


How are the Points Scored?

We tend to think of TDs being particularly important to TE scoring, but that category hasn’t actually stood out beyond the other 3 stats tested here for fantasy TEs.

This graph represents the correlations between each of the 4 categories listed and total PPR points allowed:

As you can probably see, yards and receptions consistently show the strongest connection with PPR scoring. That’s no shock. Yardage builds the base for fantasy output at each of these positions. And receptions obviously factor heavily into “point per reception” scoring.

It’s interesting to note, however, that 3 of the categories correlate more closely with fantasy scoring for TEs than they do for WRs -- while yardage comes out well ahead for wideouts.


TE
Targets: 0.74
Receptions: 0.82
Yards: 0.87
TDs: 0.75

WR
Targets: 0.62
Receptions: 0.80
Yards: 0.93
TDs: 0.73

The gap on yardage makes sense. WRs gain significantly more yards per catch as a group than do TEs. For TEs, though, the closeness between targets and TDs makes it easier for us to chase volume as we’re deciding which TEs to use week to week, whether we’re streaming or playing DFS.

See, TDs will always be important sources of fantasy points, but they’re also difficult to predict. But we should have an easier time projecting an offense that’s likely to throw the ball more in a given week, as well as a TE who’s more likely to be a focal point or draw a better matchup.

As we get into the season, we can seek out defenses yielding the most targets, catches and yards to TEs -- while trying to look past points-allowed totals inflated by TDs.


Looking Ahead

Sorry, the rest of this content is reserved for DS Insiders.

Get instant access to read it all.

Get the insider information

Already a DS Insider? Login now

Share This!

Agree? Disagree? Tell us what you think in the comments:

comments powered by Disqus

Related Fantasy Football

Podcast: Week 7 Preview 10-17-19

Who should you start over Aaron Rodgers this week? Where does Alvin Kamara fit? And how will injuries shape NFL Week 7?

10:10pm EDT 10/17/19 Read More
32 IDP Things to Know for Week 7

Could Seattle's entire D-line be in for a boost thanks to 1 important return?

9:10am EDT 10/17/19 Read More
Premium Content Buy/Sell/Hold Report #3

We've got 10 guys to trade for, trade away or hold -- including big names like Le'Veon Bell, James Conner and DeAndre Hopkins.

3:10pm EDT 10/16/19 Read More
Premium Content Week 7 Streaming Picks

Let's try to recognize recent trends as we pick out matchup winners for NFL Week 7.

12:10pm EDT 10/16/19 Read More
Podcast: You Should Own a Jet 10-15-19

Don't let the frustrating backfield splits from Week 6 overshadow the offense that's swooping in with plenty of helpful options.

12:10pm EDT 10/15/19 Read More
Podcast: Week 6 Preview 10-10-19

Which QBs should you stream this week? And who should NOT get into your RB2 slot?

8:10pm EDT 10/10/19 Read More
32 IDP Things to Know for Week 6

Demarcus Lawrence's slow start is just 1 of 32+ topics we're tackling in this beefy trip around IDP land ...

12:10am EDT 10/10/19 Read More

Read More Articles

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play