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Draft Strategy

2020 IDP Strategy Guide

By Matt Schauf 6:08am EDT 8/28/20


Want to know where you can still get the biggest edge on your fantasy football competition?

Spoiler alert: You're already reading about it.

There's so much fantasy football info available now: stats, rankings, podcasts, opinions ... It's tough to call anyone a true "sleeper."

Unless you play in an IDP league.

Even with the fantasy-playing community getting smarter by the year, far too many still underserve the defensive side of the ball. And even if you're way into IDPs and have been playing for years, it's much tougher to find defensive info amid camp reports on backup QBs and practice-squad wideouts.

But that's why you're here. We'll run through some different IDP formats, how you should approach your draft and some key players to target at every position.

The goal here: Even before you win your league in December, your league mates will wonder why that big Week 5 performer is already on your roster instead of the waiver wire -- like he is in most leagues.

You can tell those folks: Because I'm prepared ...

1, 2 or 3 IDP Slots

These IDP setups remain way too common. If your league falls into this category, then your crew has not committed to really using defensive players. It’s OK for a trial run -- especially if a significant portion of the league is wary -- but you should try to increase your defensive lineup, even incrementally.

The problem with this level of IDP involvement: Think of playing in a fantasy league where you only need to start 1-3 players from a pool including all RBs, WRs and TEs. Pretty easy to outfit your entire league with at least solid players from that group, right?

Well, the equivalent defensive-player pool would be even larger, because just about every NFL team starts some arrangement of 7 front-seven players and 4 DBs. (Many more accurately start 5 DBs and 2 LBs at this point.) Compare that with most teams sporting 2 usable RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE.

The only real question for this format -- assuming a common scoring setup that doesn't heavily reward big plays over tackles -- is when to draft Darius Leonard.

In the past, I've said to just wait, even let your league mates get the IDPs rolling and then get guys they're undervaluing. But Leonard is the dominant #1 at the lead fantasy position on defense. My projection for him (in our default scoring system) puts Leonard 36 points ahead of #2 Bobby Wagner. Move another 36 points down from Wagner, and you land between #39 Germaine Pratt and #40 Khalil Mack.

Even in this shallow format, Leonard is a difference maker. So go get him in the single-digit rounds. Exactly where will depend on the rest of your league format, and your MVP Board will help you determine the right spot. (Though a lack of trustworthy ADP data for defensive players may push him a little further down your recommended picks.)

And if the spot seems too early to you, then consider where Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are going. Those are the clear leaders at other positions where you likely only need to start 1 a week.

So if you need to start 3 IDPs, then Leonard gets even more valuable.

Beyond Leonard, you can really just fill out your D slots whenever you want in this format. There's far less consensus in defensive-player rankings than on the offensive side. So I can guarantee that you will find prominent players in every position group sliding well beyond where I have them projected.

That certainly doesn't mean you need to wait if you reach, say, a 10th-round turn with nothing else exciting. But you can wait, if you choose.

In most cases, you'll want to focus on non-edge LBs and high-tackle safeties to fill out your spots here. We'll get to some values by position later in this article.

5 IDP Slots with 3 LBs, or 2 Plus Flex

Now you’re getting there. This should be the smallest IDP lineup in any fantasy league, requiring at least 1 lineman, 2-3 LBs and at least 1 DB. This is deep enough to create some room to take advantage if you land top players for your IDP slots, but also still shallow enough that your whole league can find decent options.

I ran through a mock draft in this format, with an offensive lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 1 flex. Leonard led my recommended picks in Round 7 (and easily at that).

That is certainly not too early to draft Leonard. You might even consider him at your previous 2 turns, depending on what else is available.

In case you skipped the last section, just think about how far ahead of the rest of their positions Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are going. ADP has Kelce and Mahomes going 2+ rounds ahead of the 3rd player at their positions.

Leonard leads the #2 LB by 36 points in our site rankings.

Mahomes sits 11 points ahead of Jackson, and 21 ahead of #3 Dak Prescott.

Kelce leads Kittle by 7 points, and 36 ahead of #3 Zach Ertz (in PPR).

In short, Leonard's lead at his position beats even the most dominant other position leaders in our projections. And that's because he has scored that way through 2 seasons. Leonard led all LBs by nearly 3 points per game (depending on your format) as a 2018 rookie and then by nearly 2 points per game last season.

So there really isn't a "too early" for Leonard. If you're playing in a familiar league and have a good sense of when defensive players tend to go, then don't be afraid to grab Leonard a round or 2 ahead of that.

Unfamiliar league? Be aware of the tiers at RB and WR in the Round 5-7 range, and try to determine where you can nab Leonard without a big drop-off in value elsewhere.

Beyond the Leonard question, it'll depend a bit more on the specific positions you need to fill and your league's scoring settings.

Are you just filling 5 IDP flex spots? Do you need to start 1 from each position group with 2 flexes? Something else? Do you get extra points for sacks? Do you get bonus points when a player reaches a certain tackle threshold?

All of that will alter the player values and how you should approach the position(s). Your MVP Board, of course, can help you fit the draft approach to your league's settings.

If you don't need to start any D-linemen and don't get big points for sacks -- i.e. more than a 3-1 fantasy-point ratio in sack to solo-tackle scoring -- then try not to bother with those guys. They won't score as much as LBs and DBs overall. And linemen will generally prove more volatile with their fantasy scoring than LBs and tackle-collecting DBs.

If you need to start at least 1 DB, then shoot for someone from the top 10 in our DB rankings. Every member of that group is a safety that we project for more than 100 total tackles. You can still find quality players beyond that range, of course, but that's the group most likely to deliver reliable weekly scoring. And you should be able to land at least 1 player from that range fairly easily.

Lions S Tracy Walker has lasted longer in my few IDP drafts so far than I would have expected. He was excellent for fantasy owners when healthy last year. Even Derwin James, though, is looking like a value. The expert consensus rankings over at Fantasy Pros have him just 4th among DBs. Even though the points sit close, James is pretty easily my top DB. I believe his ceiling reaches higher than #2 Budda Baker's.

Back to LB -- and beyond Leonard -- you'll want to focus on non-edge LBs in most cases. If you get bigger sack points or points for QB hits and hurries, then check out some edge targets later in this article.

As you can see by the numbers on the LB rankings page, though, there's not a whole lot of separation behind Leonard. This frees you up to fit the rest of your LBs in at comfy spots for your draft plan. We'll get to some specific value targets that can free you up even more.


Multiple DL Slots

In most previous years, I've advocated targeting a D-lineman early among your IDPs if you need to fill multiple slots. My plan is not quite the same this year.

Vikings DE Danielle Hunter opened training camp with a sizable lead over #2 Joey Bosa and could have qualified as that "go get him" target. But Hunter has been out since the 1st day of camp with what HC Mike Zimmer will only call a "tweak." That doesn't sound like a big deal. But we really have no idea just how big a deal it is.

Hunter's situation undeniably adds risk. And beyond his "tweak," the Vikings defense has moved on this offseason from fellow DE starter Everson Griffen and DT Linval Joseph. That doesn't necessarily mean downgrades at those positions. But it does mean Hunter will be dealing with altered surroundings when he takes the field.

Now, we're still talking about a 25-year-old who already has 5 NFL seasons behind him and 3 years of 12.5+ sacks. He's a stud who might still be ascending. And Hunter remains #1 on our DL board. Just know that there's more potential risk than we might have thought in the spring.

Behind Hunter, you'll see the projected fantasy points steadily decline rather than dropping drastically. And you'll find plenty of attractive candidates. Some -- such as Nick Bosa -- feature higher sack ceilings. Sam Hubbard, on the other hand, presents an attractive tackle floor.

You should feel good about basically any 2 players among the top 17 in our DL rankings -- with some variations, of course, for scoring systems. Frank Clark, for example, will be less attractive in more tackle-heavy formats but carries enviable upside in sack/pressure-friendly leagues.

Just beyond the top 17, you'll find Dante Fowler. He's coming off what looked like a breakthrough season with the Rams and arrived in Atlanta on a big free-agent contract. Perhaps the former top-5 NFL Draft pick is ready to put it all together. If you can draft him late enough, Fowler could become a wonderful value. But he still comes with some "if."

DE Maxx Crosby shocked even the Raiders with his 10-sack debut. Beware some regression -- and you can read his profile for why -- but I still expect him to be good.

Lions DE Trey Flowers (#20) will give you tackles but doesn't look like he'll be morphing into a double-digit sacker. (Maybe an outlier season in that category 1 of these years.) Colts DE Justin Houston delivered 11 sacks in his first Indy season. But he's 31. So it's fair to wonder whether he'll decline.

Beyond that group sit some other question marks and volatile scorers. Players in this range will fit better as upside DL3+ options or in platoons.

DT-Specific Leagues

If you need to start a DT, then don't wait too long into your defensive picks to target someone. At the same time, though, it doesn't look like there's as big an advantage as in previous seasons to snatching the 1st off the board.

For one thing, Aaron Donald remains a DE as the Rams continue with a 3-4 front. DeForest Buckner leads the DTs in our 2020 rankings, but he sits just 2 spots ahead of Chiefs DT Chris Jones. A year after setting the NFL record with sacks in 11 straight games, Jones returned from an early-season groin injury to deliver 7 sacks over the final 8 games. He's the position's best bet for 10+ sacks. And there's upside beyond them.

Jonathan Allen moves from DE to DT, thanks to Washington's shift to a 4-3 front under new DC Jack Del Rio. Expect him and Matt Ioannidis to both get enough snaps in their 3-man rotation to be DT options in fantasy.

And close behind Allen in the ranks sit Falcons DT Grady Jarrett, Titans DT Jeffery Simmons and Packers DT Kenny Clark. Jarrett and Clark have proved their worth. Simmons flashed briefly as a rookie coming off an ACL tear at the end of his college career. The 2019 first-round pick carries intriguing upside into his 2nd season after his 1st healthy offseason.

I'd like to get 1 of those 6 where required to start a DT. But even beyond that, Ioannidis and Panthers DT Kawann Short look good. Browns DT Sheldon Richardson brings a higher tackle floor than most at the position. Ditto Dolphins DT Davon Godchaux. And there's sack upside in Seahawks DT Jarran Reed and Bills DT Ed Oliver.


CB-Specific Slots

I was surprised at how high some corners came out in the DB rankings after I finished loading my projections. From that point, I even adjusted some numbers down, knowing you wouldn't need to draft the players anywhere near their ranking spot. Still, some names stand out and will remain available long into your draft.

Mike Hughes pops up first among all corners and 14th overall among DBs. And he's 1 guy I adjusted down from his original projection. Might my numbers and ranking for him still look crazy high by the end of the season? Maybe. We've never seen the 3rd-year guy operate as a top-2 corner for the Vikings. But he played more than 50% of the defensive snaps when on the field in each of his first 2 seasons. And Minnesota clearly believes in the former 1st-round pick. That's at least part of why the team felt fine with letting it's top 3 CBs from 2019 -- Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander -- walk in the offseason.

I based my Hughes projections on his numbers (in limited duty), the overall Minnesota defensive stats/opportunities in recent seasons and the tackles accrued by the CBs he'll be replacing. Multiple reports have since indicated Hughes will spend time both inside (slot) and outside this season, perhaps even shadowing opponent #1 WRs at times.

The opportunity is clear. Yet I was recently able to take him with the final pick of a 30-round, 12-team draft, in a league with experienced drafters and where we need to start 2 corners. Hughes came off the board 19th among CBs.

I'm not interested in forcing him further down our DB rankings. I feel pretty good about betting on a Mike Zimmer DB. The takeaway here is that you should treat Hughes like a coupon for a free CB starter. You can choose when to spend it.

Even if you mess around and wait too long, the next 2 CBs in our rankings -- the Colts' Kenny Moore and the Rams' Troy Hill -- currently sit 45th and unranked (on a list of 138 players) in the Fantasy Pros consensus. (Hughes, by the way, checks in 89th.)

In short: Wait on your CB(s) until you're comfy filling the spot(s). You'll have options available.

In big-play leagues, pay more attention to the projections for passes defensed and INTs. I'd highlight Ravens CB Marcus Peters, who brings week-winning upside and might find himself this season in the league's best defense.


Safeties

I mentioned in the 5-IDP section above that I'd like to land 1 among the top 10 safeties for a typical scoring system that at least balances tackles with big plays. That would be even more true in leagues that lean further toward tackles.

The group could really stretch through at least Taylor Rapp at #13 -- even Malcolm Jenkins at 15. But questions creep in a bit more after Jeremy Chinn at 10.

Panthers HC Matt Rhule said this week that Chinn -- the 2nd-round rookie -- would start if the season began "today." Rhule just wasn't sure whether Chinn would start at safety or OLB. If that uncertainty sounds like a problem -- it's not.

That means they know they want Chinn on the field, they're just not sure exactly where he'll help the team most. Is there a chance Chinn starts at LB and loses some snaps in sub packages? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. If anything, this scenario challenges the outlook for LB Tahir Whitehead. Who seems more likely to come off the field in passing situations: the impressive young athlete who starred at safety in college, or the 30-year-old journeyman who saw the Raiders slice his playing time last season and then release him in March. That's the same Raiders team that then threw a bunch of money at LBs Nick Kwiatkoski and Cory Littleton in free agency.

Behind Chinn in the rankings sits Vikings S Harrison Smith. There's no real question with him, he just doesn't match the other highly ranked safeties in tackle floor. So he brings a bit more volatility.

Duron Harmon steps into an upside spot with the Lions and his first opportunity at full-time snaps after spending most of the past 5 years as New England's 3rd safety. His 3 seasons of 3+ INTs in that span points to some big-play upside. We're guessing a bit on his tackle outlook, but Detroit has been a good spot for safety tackles. And Harmon will play amid an iffy-looking front 7 and lackluster CBs.

Jenkins has been a reliable performer. He just steps into new digs with his return to New Orleans. There's upside beyond his #15 ranking, though, in a role that helped Vonn Bell to top-6 production among fantasy DBs last year.

Of course, there's also nothing wrong with Denver's Justin Simmons and others a little further down the list. Falcons S Keanu Neal likely sits much lower in our DB rankings than he'll go in your league. I'm wary of relying on him coming off an ACL tear and Achilles' tendon rupture in consecutive seasons. But this is a position where you can more comfortably take the risky bet. There will be options both later in the draft and on the in-season waiver wire in nearly all IDP formats.

If you've been checking out the IDP rankings since then first dropped, then you might have noticed Cowboys S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix among the early top 10 before dropping down to his current DB30 spot. The SS in DC Mike Nolan's defenses has tended to score well. That group has included William Moore with the Falcons, Michael Lewis with the 49ers and even a season of Brian Dawkins with the Broncos. But multiple Cowboys reporters have mentioned Darian Thompson outperforming Clinton-Dix in camp thus far.

We'll see who opens the season as the season as the starter. Clinton-Dix signed a mere 1-year, $3.75 million contract in free agency. I'm sure they signed him hoping to have the starter next to FS Xavier Woods, but that's far from guaranteed-starter money.

Down the list sleeper types include:

Raiders S Johnathan Abram
49ers S Jimmie Ward
Buccaneers S Jordan Whitehead


Edge LBs

If you play in a league that awards points for tackles for loss, QB hits and/or pressures, then I salute you. Those are good ways to appropriately reward edge guys and even off-ball LBs who are making plays that don't always show up in the traditional stat categories. Unfortunately, there just aren't enough such leagues -- or at least enough clamor so far -- to make it worth adding those categories to our system.

If you do include any of those categories, I'd recommend trying to account for them in your MVP Board setup by altering the sack scoring. If your league gives 4 points per sack and 1 per TFL, for example, enter 5 points per sack in your board setup.

Is that perfect? Of course not. Not every sack also counts as a tackle for loss -- or even as a QB hit -- but you're not likely to find players finishing the year with TFL or QBH totals lower than their sack totals.

The studs will stand out to you here. And T.J. Watt is absolutely worth chasing -- even more so than Danielle Hunter vs. the other DEs.


More Values/Sleepers vs. Consensus

It's tough to find worthwhile ADP for IDP drafting, so I like to compare my rankings with the Fantasy Pros consensus this time or year. Here are some names that sit a lot higher in my rankings (beyond those already mentioned) ...

Buccaneers DE Jason Pierre-Paul (DS: 8, FP: 27)
Falcons DE Dante Fowler (DS: 18, FP: 29)
Dolphins DE Shaq Lawson (DS: 24, FP: 65)
Patriots DE Chase Winovich (DS: 25, FP: 63)
Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch (DS: 8, FP: 17)
Cardinals LB Isaiah Simmons (DS: 15, FP: 34)
Broncos LB Alexander "A.J." Johnson (DS: 18, FP: 42)
Rams LB Micah Kiser (DS: 21, FP: 66)
Raiders LB Nick Kwiatkoski (DS: 22, FP: 47)
Jets S Marcus Maye (DS: 23, FP: 52)

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