DFS Showdown Tips: Patriots-Jets
I said last week that we might need the DFS showdowns to make the Buccaneers-Giants game “palatable” on Monday night. And then the Giants went out and proved me wrong.
But I’ll still try it again …
This week’s Monday night matchup looks awful.
The Patriots are handling their breakup with Tom Brady so poorly that it’s about to turn into a new Adele album. The Jets are so bad that they’re starting Joe Flacco this week … and it doesn’t seem to matter.
Let’s just get to the values ...
We’ve only gotten 1 game so far with both Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims active. We’ve gotten 0 games with those 2 and Jamison Crowder on the field. If Crowder makes it onto the active roster for Monday night, then we’ll finally get that. So how much would Jeff Smith play in that case? Probably not a whole lot. The 1 time this season he has played in a game that included Perriman and Mims -- Week 7 vs. Buffalo -- Smith played just 21% of the snaps and watched his lone target fall incomplete.
In short, you can probably skip over his name here.
Frank Gore, on the other hand, still led La’Mical Perine 10-8 in carries their last time out. The rookie did get 2 catches to match Gore in total touches and play 6 more snaps than Gore. But $3000 difference in showdown salary seems excessive -- if you’re looking for a cheap option.
Joe Flacco started back in weeks 5 and 6. He targeted Crowder 10 times in the first and 13 in the 2nd. Smith led the team with 11 targets in Week 5; Perriman drew 8 in the 2nd. The Patriots will go without lead CB Stephon Gilmore (knee) on Monday night, which helps the outlook for Perriman (and Mims). J.C. Jackson -- the other outside starter -- is questionable. His absence would obviously help Perriman and Mims even further.
That doesn’t make either worth getting excited about, but it’s noteworthy as we decide who to use.
Cam Newton costs $3000 more in salary than anyone else on the FanDuel slate and yet easily leads the group in dollars per point. You can quickly see why in the chart above. We have Newton projected for 50% more fantasy points than opposing QB Joe Flacco and nearly double the production of the next guy (Jamison Crowder). And our projection for Newton sits 0.9 points short of his season scoring average on FD.
The rushing matchup for all Patriots ball-carriers has improved for 2 reasons:
1) The Jets traded ILB Avery Williamson to the Steelers a week ago, removing the top-graded run defender in their LB corps.
2) DL Quinnen Williams is doubtful for tonight. He stands as the Jets’ 3rd-best run defender overall, according to Pro Football Focus grades.