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Fantasy Draft Recaps

FFPC Double Draft Recap

By Matt Schauf 10:08am EDT 8/8/16

What the heck was I thinking?

That tends to come to me once a summer when I look back on a player I picked in the 1st week of May as part of some magazine mock draft. But it can also occur when I compare a couple of teams drafted months apart in the same format.

Back in late May, I did a draft-only FFPC satellite league, where the top prize will be an entry into next season’s main event. Then at the end of July, I got another shot at the same format as part of the annual Pros vs. Joes event.

In both cases, the draft goes 28 rounds, with 1.5 PPR for TEs and 1.0 PPR for all others. The lineup goes:

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
TE
FLEX
FLEX
K
D

Although the format differs from MFL10s on MyFantasyLeague.com, you’ll find that I drew from our Jason Phelps-powered strategy in building both teams. There's also plenty worth looking at even if you're not drafting in the FFPC format.

Would hindsight lead me to regret any picks, though? Let’s see ...


Late May -- 1.06: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
Late July -- 1.02: Odell Beckham, WR, Giants

In addition to the well-known TE-friendly scoring in the FFPC, the fact that you only need to start 2 WRs adds some value to the top RBs. Johnson actually comes up 2nd overall on the MVP Board for the FFPC format.

When I picked him, Bengals WR A.J. Green was also on the board. If I had that choice to make again today, I’d probably go Green. I believe he’s close to that lead trio at WR -- especially if we’re talkin’ ceiling.

At any point this year, though, a top-3 pick for me means whomever’s on the board among Antonio Brown, Beckham and Julio Jones. Beckham’s higher TD ceiling pushes him ahead of Jones on my board, but they’re virtually tied. So I’ll opt for Jones at times.


2.07: Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
2.11: Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

I’ve cooled a bit on Jeffery since spring, especially now that we’ve already seen him deal with hamstring trouble again in camp. If I had a do-over on this pick today, I’d easily lean Ezekiel Elliott or Lamar Miller instead, both of whom remained on the board at that point.

Neither guy appears likely to last until 2.07 at this point, though. Jeffery would remain in the WR mix for me in this range, along with Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall. I also wouldn’t be afraid to take a 2nd RB.

Another reason to feel comfy with the elite WRs at the top of Round 1 is that players such as Mark Ingram and my next pick will consistently make it to your next turn.


3.06: Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers
3.02: Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

At any point this offseason, I have been quite happy to draft Lacy in Round 3 -- and to finish the 1st 3 rounds with a WR and a pair of RBs. In the May draft, I selected Lacy over Ingram, Jamaal Charles and Doug Martin. He and Ingram remain a toss-up for me, given Ingram’s injury history.


4.07: Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
4.11: Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

You could review nearly any of my drafts this year and find Floyd in Round 4. In May, I selected him over C.J. Anderson and Carlos Hyde. Today in this format, I’d probably opt for 1 of those RBs. But I’d lean Floyd where I need to start 3 wideouts.


5.06: Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers
5.02: Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars

I did the May draft without the benefit of my MVP Board, which hadn’t yet gone live for the season. The 2nd time around, it was nice to see the Board corroborate my thinking that a TE looked like good value at this point.

Gates came of the board 9th among TEs in that 1st draft. I grabbed Thomas 7th among TEs in Draft #2 -- and then 4 more TEs went before my next turn. If you’re drafting in an FFPC league, then getting your TE starter by this turn looks like a good idea.


6.07: John Brown, WR, Cardinals
6.11: Frank Gore, RB, Colts

Team 1 finished 6 rounds with 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 TE. Team 2 started its draft with 3 RBs, 2 WRs and 1 TE. I’d lean toward the latter in terms of strategy approaching a draft, though certainly always with flexibility depending on how the board aligns.

In terms of the players, I have no problem stacking Floyd and Brown on the same team, whether best-ball or otherwise. There’s handcuff value in case either gets hurt or disappoints, and the offense is good enough to support multiple players in plenty of weeks.

Gore remains a sort of default value this year, with his near-certain volume raising the floor -- almost regardless of how efficient he proves.


7.06: Duke Johnson, RB, Browns
7.02: Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

You know Gates is undervalued when he stays on the board until Round 7 of the most TE-friendly format in the industry.

In this case, I got him 12th among TEs. Don’t count on him lasting quite so long (round wise) in a typical FFPC draft, which will likely be populated by veterans of the format.

Johnson remains a high-ceiling PPR option at ADP and a terrific RB3, especially on a team that drafted 3 WRs 1st.


8.07: Eric Ebron, TE, Lions
8.11: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

Anticipating position runs and getting on the right side of them can be a key in any draft. I managed to time the Ebron pick well, getting him as the 14th TE off the board ... until he hurt his freakin' Achilles. Five more followed before my next turn.

Wilson, meanwhile, was the 5th QB off the board. I’ll rarely take a QB before the double-digit rounds in a best-ball draft, but drafting a steady option at nice value here allows me to wait longer before taking my 2nd. Would I wait too long in this case? We’ll see ...


9.06: Charles Clay, TE, Bills
9.02: Josh Gordon, WR, Browns

I know I want 3 TEs on any best-ball roster, and that number goes up (to at least 4) when we’re talking FFPC setup and 28 rounds. Clay basically finishes up the range of sure starters for their teams and thus steady reception producers.

While the 1st draft came well before Gordon’s reinstatement, the 2nd followed it. I think he’s a nice upside bet at this point as the 3rd WR on a best-ball roster in a league where many others started WR-heavy.


10.07: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns
10.11: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns

It’s interesting that Coleman landed on my team in the same round each time. The 1st draft came well before Gordon re-entered the mix, so I just liked the standalone value of Coleman as the team’s potential #1.


11.06: LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots
11.02: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Buccaneers

In the May draft, I passed on QB again despite having none and seeing 12 leave the board. My league mates selected 5 more passers before my next turn. Let’s see if that choice proved to be a mistake.

Blount carries some risk in a crowded New England backfield that could still sort out in a number of ways. But there’s also more than enough upside to make him a solid bet as the 45th RB off the board. He scored 54.5% of the Pats’ RB rushing TDs last year despite playing only 11.5 games.

Similarly, ASJ now carries even more risk than we might have thought back in the spring. Cameron Brate currently leads him in the starting race. But as the 22nd TE off the board and the 3rd on my Pros vs. Joes roster, his TD upside makes the chance worth taking.


12.07: Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills
12.11: Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens

Taylor as the 18th QB off the board? Gimme. He finished his 1st starting season 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game and ranked among the top 12 in 7 of his 14 weeks. Only 8 QBs beat that 50% rate of starter weeks.

Baltimore’s crowd hurts Dixon’s chances of producing, which took a further knock when he opened training camp on the sideline with hamstring trouble. But he’s worth a shot anywhere in the double-digit rounds regardless of format. We’ll see how this situation sorts out.


13.06: Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens
13.02: Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

If you’re going to wait so long to draft your 1st QB, I would recommend going after your 2nd quickly thereafter. In this case, another 6 left the board between my Round 12 Taylor selection and my Round 13 turn. Still Flacco as the 25th QB will work just fine for me. He heads into Year 2 under pass-friendly OC Marc Trestman and was on pace for a career-high in pass attempts before suffering an ACL tear in 2015.

Jackson looks like 1 of the best overall values on the 2016 board. Here I got him 4 rounds later than he went in the May draft, as WR55. Even while losing 6 full games to knee injuries last year, Jackson didn’t finish that low in total points. Jackson did garner 24.2% of the team targets over his 7 full contests -- even with Mike Evans around.


14.07: DeAndre Washington, RB, Raiders
14.11: C.J. Spiller, RB, Saints

Latavius Murray’s reportedly enjoying a strong camp so far. But even if he continues to hold down the starting job for 2016, Washington appears headed for at least a decent passing-game/change of pace role -- with a path to more work in an intriguing offense if Murray falters or gets hurt. That’s a player to target toward the middle of your fantasy draft.

Spiller might continue to let us all down. Or he might start to see more of the work that New Orleans had him pegged for when it signed him last offseason. There’s a lot less risk in taking a chance on him this time around, 10 rounds or so after when you had to draft him in 2015.


15.06: Virgil Green, TE, Broncos
15.02: Robert Griffin, QB, Browns

Honestly, Green was an autopick from my player queue when I got stuck with an overnight pick and let the clock run out. He wouldn’t have been my top choice, but he was in my queue because of his path to the starting job in a TE-friendly Denver offense. I certainly haven’t given up on a guy who looked like a potential fantasy sleeper last year.

The Pros vs. Joes draft again found me taking the 25th QB off the board as my #2 at the position, but I might have waited a little too long in this case. Drafting Wilson this time around made me feel comfy in pushing off the 2nd spot, and only 16 had gone by the time my 12.11-13.02 turn arrived. But a run took 7 more away before my 14.11 turn.

Griffin carries upside, though, and stacking him with the Browns WRs I drafted earlier matches up nicely with Jason Phelps’ research into stacking for your best-ball roster.


16.07: Mason Crosby, K, Packers
16.11: Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys

Just like with defenses in MFL10s, I want 3 kickers in this best-ball format. My plan remains, though, to let someone else start the position and then grab a guy in the middle. Crosby was the 2nd off the board.

As for Williams in the July draft … that’s ridiculously late for him to remain on the board in his ideal format.


17.06: Chris Boswell, K, Steelers
17.02: Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers

If I’m set on 3 kickers, I don’t want to wait too long for that 2nd -- especially with how easily NFL teams replace them. Boswell was 14th off the board in May.

The Pros vs. Joes league took longer to get around to kickers … which might have led me to wait a little too long. Here, I chose Henry over another TE because of his handcuff/stack value with Gates (my 7th-round choice). Even without Gates, he’d be fine as TE31 off the board.


18.07: Eagles D/ST
18.11: Stevie Johnson, WR, Chargers

Like with kickers, I want 3 defenses and will start taking them after some other owner gets it going. Philly came to me 9th among D/STs in the May draft.

Johnson? Hey, he was healthy when I drafted him.


19.06: Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys
19.02: Virgil Green, TE, Broncos

If Round 16 was ridiculously late for Williams in the July draft, I don’t even know the adjective to describe him lasting until Round 19 in May.

Green was that TE I mentioned 2 rounds ago that I weighed vs. Henry. I was happy to still get him 2 turns later, and I certainly have no problem carrying 5 TEs on a 28-man roster with TE-friendly scoring and 2 flex spots to fill every week. He came off the board 34th at the position.


20.07: Packers D/ST
20.11: Geno Smith, QB, Jets

Defense #2 in the Packers. And Smith was the Jets’ starter when I drafted him … though even then he went a bunch of rounds later than Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s OK as a 3rd QB late in a deep-roster league. I’d go in a different direction today, though.


21.06: Chargers D/ST
21.02: Eagles D/ST

The Chargers were my 3rd defense in March, interestingly arriving in the same round as my 1st D in the Pros vs. Joes draft. In the latter, I drafted Philly 13th among defenses.


22.07: Ryan Succop, K, Titans
22.11: Giants D/ST

Succop = solid kicker #3 as he heads into Year 3 with Tennessee. When I waited for the Eagles as my 1st D, I knew I wanted another the next time. Seventeen were gone by the time I took the Giants.


23.06: Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
23.02: Brandon McManus, K, Broncos

Kaepernick as a 3rd QB? I’ll take it. Regardless of who wins the San Francisco job, would you bet on either guy starting all 16 games this year?

Getting the 14th kicker off the board as my 1st at a 3-player position left me nervous and scrambling a bit. In hindsight, I’d have started the defenses and kickers earlier in the PvJ draft.


24.07: Tyler Ervin, RB, Texans
24.11: Cody Parkey, K, Eagles

I think Ervin’s underrated as a late handcuff/stash, especially in deeper-bench leagues. Here, for example, I got him 69th among RBs -- and that was with Alfred Blue still on the board. We’ve seen what Blue can do, and it’s not a whole lot. Ervin’s the upside reserve in Houston. And he’ll play behind a guy who has yet to average 14.0 carries per game through an NFL season.

And just 1 turn after I drafted McManus in the 2nd draft, Parkey landed on my team as the 25th kicker off the board. If he wins the job back from Caleb Sturgis, great. But the uncertainty made him last until 25th.


25.06: J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals
25.02: Nick Folk, K, Jets

Kicker #3 had to follow Parkey. Like Parkey, Folk would have gone earlier without competition in camp. I feel good about him at this stage vs. a rookie, though, assuming the quad injury that ended his 2015 early doesn’t become an issue again.

The previous draft? Nelson’s deep speed and the Cardinals offense makes him a solid late-round addition in a best-ball draft.


26.07: Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots
26.11: Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots

It’s interesting that I drafted Mitchell in the exact same round both times, particularly because it was an accident the 2nd time around. I was trying to secure my 3rd D, but a technical glitch in the draft room left me clicking on a D/ST that had already been drafted. Oh well. Mitchell arrived because I had him sitting in my queue. An intriguing WR talent in the wide-open Patriots’ corps seems like an attractive late scratch-off ticket to me.


27.06: Jaelen Strong, WR, Texans
27.02: Chargers D/ST

The positive buzz on Strong in the spring has continued and makes him worth stashing late on at least a few best-ball teams.

Tech glitch fixed, I took San Diego 30th among defenses as my 3rd.


28.07: Josh Hill, TE, Saints
28.11: Cody Latimer, WR, Broncos

Hail mary time! If Hill starts a game or 2 as my 5th TE in this TE-loving format, he has repaid my investment. Latimer, I haven’t heard anything -- positive or negative -- about him this summer. We’ll see if he’s ready to do anything.

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