Show Navigation
Show Menu

Fantasy Draft Recaps

FFPC Draft Experts Pick-by-Pick Analysis

By Jared Smola 12:07pm EDT 7/7/17


Giddy up, y’all — it’s draft season!

I just entered my 1st real-money league of the year: an FFPC Draft Experts. This is a best-ball league, so no lineup-setting, no waivers and no trades. Draft and you’re done.

If you’re not familiar with FFPC rules, here’s a quick rundown …

  • Standard PPR scoring, except TEs receive 1.5 points per catch
  • Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF

You better believe I’ll be using our rankings and the MVP Board as the backbone of my strategy. I’ll also be leaning on our prior best-ball research to help with draft decisions.

Join me for running pick-by-pick analysis throughout this 28-round draft.

1.06 - Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

Jones’ durability problems — he’s missed 17 games through 6 NFL seasons and is coming off relatively minor offseason foot surgery — are less worrisome in this best-ball format with super deep rosters. When on the field, he’s produced as a top 6 WR in PPR points per game each of the last 4 years.

2.07 - Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

The MVP Board was screaming at me to take Gurley here -- a bit surprising with Dez Bryant on the board.

Based on our projections, though, only 8.3 points separate Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, who's ranked 4 spots below him and has a good chance to be available in the 3rd round. Gurley, meanwhile, is projected for 11.4 more points than the next best available RB.

The Rams workhorse brings a comfy floor. Even in last year's uber-disappointing season, he finished 15th among RBs in this scoring format. And we've seen the upside when he ranked 2nd at his position over the final 13 weeks of the 2015 fantasy season.

I got him here as the 10th RB off the board.

3.06 - Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns

Crow ranked 14th among RBs in this scoring system last year -- despite playing on a 1-15 Browns squad that finished dead last in rushing attempts.

Cleveland should take a step forward in 2017 (it'd be tough to be worse). And they upgraded the offensive line by adding G Kevin Zeitler and C J.C. Tretter.

4.07 - Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks

Woke up this morning to see I'd missed Ty Montgomery, my top target here, by 1 pick. Happy Friday!

I'll settle for an upper-echelon TE instead. Graham finished 4th among TEs in this format last year. And with the 1.5 PPR, he out-scored all but 16 WRs. He could be even better in 2017 as he puts that 2015 torn patellar tendon further behind him.

5.06 - Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

Did Allen lose a limb or something?!?

There are obviously durability concerns here. And his volume figures to drop from previous levels in a loaded Chargers pass-catching corps. But I got him 19 spots after ADP and as the WR27.

Allen appears 100% recovered from last year's torn ACL and remains the odds-on favorite to be the target leader for an offense that's ranked top 10 in passing yards in 4 straight seasons.

6.07 - Bilal Powell, RB, Jets

I'm carrying the Powell flag around DS headquarters. The guy ranked 2nd in yards per carry (5.5) among 42 RBs who toted it 100+ times last year. He also ranked 3rd in yards after contact per carry and 9th in missed tackles forced per carry, according to Pro Football Focus.

AND he caught 58 balls.

Sure, the Jets will be bad this year. But they were bad last year, and Powell finished 17th among RBs in FFPC points. That came on just 189 total touches. He should zoom by 200 this season -- and has a shot to reach 250 depending on how little is left in Matt Forte's tank.

7.06 - Eric Ebron, TE, Lions

It feels like we've been waiting for an Ebron breakout forever. He's entering just his 4th season, though -- and is still only 24.

Ebron has upped his catches, catch rate, yards and yards per catch each of the past 2 seasons. He ranked 11th among TEs in FFPC points per game last year, despite scoring just 1 TD. Anquan Boldin's departure leaves behind 95 targets from a year ago, including 22 in the red zone.

That breakout might be coming this season.

8.07 - DeSean Jackson, WR, Bucs

I took D-Jax over 5 higher-ranked WRs -- partly because of ADPs but partly because he just excites me more.

Jackson has long been 1 of the most efficient WRs, ranking among the top 5 at his position in fantasy points per target in 4 straight seasons. Now he joins a Bucs offense with a young, ascending QB and an elite WR on the other side of the field to draw coverage away.

A top-25 finish is within Jackson's range of outcomes. And he should provide some spiked weeks that will play well in this best-ball format.

9.06 - C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks

Durability is a concern after Prosise sustained hip, hamstring, hand and scapula injuries as a rookie. But he also flashed big upside when he was on the field, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 12.2 yards per catch.

A healthy Prosise should dominate passing-down work in Seattle. And there's a chance he assumes a large ball-carrying role if Eddie Lacy falters again. I love the weekly and season-long ceilings I'm getting here in the 9th round.

10.07 - Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

I got swept up in a QB run, with 5 straight going before my pick here. I'm cool with Dalton as my QB1, though -- even if I was hoping to land him a round or 2 later.

Dalton sits 11th in our FFPC QB rankings, which is exactly where he finished last year. That was despite A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard missing extensive time. With better injury luck in 2017 -- plus the additions of rookies John Ross and Joe Mixon -- Dalton should once again return low-end QB1 numbers.

11.06 - Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles

Four more QBs came off the board between my 10th and 11th rounders, bringing the total to 19 QBs drafted. I want to make to secure at least 1 more locked-in starter, so gimme Wentz.

The floor is low after an inefficient rookie year, but the ceiling is intriguing thanks to a revamped WR corps and plus athleticism.

12.07 - Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens

Expect to see this guy on a lot of my teams this year -- especially if he continues lasting into the 12th round.

All Wallace has done since entering the league is turn in top-35 PPR finishes. (OK, he failed to reach that territory once -- in 2015 -- among his 8 NFL seasons.) That includes a WR24 finish in his Ravens debut last year.

The 2017 Ravens are missing a whopping 331 targets from last year’s squad (Dennis Pitta, Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken and Kyle Juszczyk). New arrivals Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead will soak up a bunch of those. But, at bare minimum, Wallace is a strong bet to match last year's 117 targets.

13.06 - Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens

Dixon is flying under the radar -- probably because of the 4-game suspension he was hit with to open the season. After that, though, this guy has a good shot to emerge as Baltimore's lead back.

Dixon actually ranked 19th among RBs in PPR points from Week 9 on last year, despite sharing the backfield with Terrance West. Dixon ran circles around his backfield mate over that stretch, averaging 4.5 yards per carry vs. West's 3.6. If that trend continues when Dixon debuts this year, he deserves a bigger workload.

14.07 - Josh Doctson, WR, Redskins

14th round. Time to take a shot on a former 1st-round pick with a 6'2 frame and 86th percentile SPARQ score.

Doctson will head to camp as Washington's #3 WR but has the ability to climb the depth chart. The departures of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson leave behind 214 targets from a year ago.

15.06 - Tavon Austin, WR, Rams

Owning Austin in a standard lineup-setting league is never fun. But he brings a nice weekly ceiling for best-ball formats. Austin has topped 20 PPR points 6 times over the past 2 seasons and gone over 15 points in 9 games.

16.07 - Zay Jones, WR, Bills

While I didn't love what I saw on Jones' East Carolina tape, he certainly checks boxes for college production () and athleticism (). And he landed in a nice spot for immediate production. Jones has to beat out only the rag-tag group of Andre Holmes, Philly Brown and Rod Streater for the #2 WR job. That spot fed Robert Woods about 6 targets per game over the last 4 years.

17.06 - Giants DST

18.07 - Chargers DST

19.06 - Adam Vinatieri, K, Colts

20.07 - Brandon McManus, K, Broncos

21.06 - Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders

22.07 - Ryan Succop, K, Titans

23.06 - Bengals DST

I've spent the past few days stockpiling DSTs and Ks.

Our MFL10 study a couple of years back found that drafting 3 defenses consistently improves your team's expected point output. It makes sense: A 3rd DST is more likely to start for your best-ball team than, say, a 7th RB or an 8th WR. Same logic applies at K. And it's even easier to execute in these 28-round FFPC Draft Experts leagues (vs. 20-round MFL10s).

I also sprinkled in Richard, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry and posted a 29-194-2 line as a rookie last year. He could take on a bigger role this season if the 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch falters.

24.07 - Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings

Treadwell is coming off a strong spring. He'll head to training camp as Minnesota's #3 WR -- but don't be surprised if the 2016 first-rounder passes former undrafted free agent Adam Thielen at some point this season.

25.06 - Trevor Siemian, QB, Broncos

Siemian has at least a 50% shot to open the season under center for a Broncos team that might throw it more this year. His competitor, Paxton Lynch, went 3 rounds earlier.

26.07 - A.J. Derby, TE, Broncos

Denver shipped a 5th-round pick to New England to acquire Derby last October. He totaled 16 catches on 20 targets for 160 yards in 6 appearances for the Broncos, including 9 grabs in the final 2 games. The TE room is crowded with Virgil Green, Jeff Heuerman and rookie Jake Butt also in the mix, but Derby is my bet to lead the group in fantasy points.

27.06 - Seth DeValve, TE, Browns

Rookie TEs rarely put up big fantasy numbers. If David Njoku struggles adjusting to the pro game, DeValve could surprise. He caught just 10 balls as a 4th-round rookie last year but goes 6'2, 244 pounds with a 96th percentile SPARQ score.

28.07 - Paul Richardson, WR, Seahawks

He'll duke it out with Jermaine Kearse for the #3 WR job this summer. Even if he wins it, Richardson will likely need an injury to Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett (or Jimmy Graham) to be a fantasy factor. But what more can you expect from a 28th-round pick?

Richardson racked up 15 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs over the final 4 games of last season (including playoffs)


Related Fantasy Football

Podcast: Week 13 FanDuel 12-3-21

Podcast: Week 13 FanDuel 12-3-21

1:35pm EST 12/3/21

If you want Jonathan Taylor this week, you'll have to pay. What are the top alternatives ... or some price savers elsewhere who can help you fit him?

Read More »
Podcast: Week 12 FanDuel 11-26-21

Podcast: Week 12 FanDuel 11-26-21

12:40pm EST 11/26/21

Broncos-Chargers presents some intrigue for FanDuel lineups this week, as do the $6K and $7K ranges at WR.

Read More »
Podcast: Week 12 DraftKings 11-26-21

Podcast: Week 12 DraftKings 11-26-21

12:20pm EST 11/26/21

Has Cam Newton taken the Panthers offense from can't-look to can't-miss in just 1 start?

Read More »
Podcast: Thanksgiving DFS 11-24-21

Podcast: Thanksgiving DFS 11-24-21

3:00pm EST 11/24/21

Thanksgiving Day brings us a 3-game DFS slate, featuring some potentially UGLY options at WR.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentDFS Showdown Tips: Steelers-Chargers

DFS Showdown Tips: Steelers-Chargers

5:05pm EST 11/21/21

Ben Roethlisberger's back, but some key defenders are missing for the Steelers in their Sunday Night Football showdown ...

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentDFS Showdown Tips: Chiefs-Raiders

DFS Showdown Tips: Chiefs-Raiders

4:40pm EST 11/14/21

Who is the QB to start your lineup build with in tonight's fantasy football showdown?

Read More »
Podcast: Week 9 FanDuel 11-5-21

Podcast: Week 9 FanDuel 11-5-21

8:10am EDT 11/6/21

High-end QBs look attractive on FanDuel this week, with $6K saviors at RB to help.

Read More »
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy

Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2021 Draft Package Now - Sept 15th

$39

Get Instant Access
2021 In-Season Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$39

Get Access Sept. 5th
2021 DFS Package Sept 5th - Mar 7th

$49

Get Access Sept. 5th
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual auto-renew
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Live-Draft Sync Included Live-Draft Sync
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Mock Draft Tool Included Mock Draft Tool
Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Round-by-Round Draft Strategies Included Round-by-Round Draft Strategies
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “My Team” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Partner Navigator Trade Partner Navigator Included Trade Partner Navigator Trade Partner Navigator Included Trade Partner Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly GPP Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Included Weekly Cash Game Picks
(DraftKings & FanDuel)
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice Included Daily Fantasy Advice
Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice Included Personalized Email Advice
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access
Draft Sharks App
All–Access Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Included All-Access
Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept. 5th Get Access Sept. 5th Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play