Is Trevor Lawrence Ready for a Year 2 Breakout?

By Kevin English 1:44pm EDT 5/25/22

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Trevor Lawrence

What You Need to Know:

-Playing under failed HC Urban Meyer, Lawrence posted just 3,641-12-17 as a rookie.

-He finished as a top-10 fantasy QB only once (QB10, Week 5).

-Lawrence was a factor with his legs, posting 73-334-2 on the ground. He hit 20+ yards in 9 separate games.

-His rag-tag supporting cast saw Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and Laquon Treadwell lead the way in targets.

-Travis Etienne missed the entire season with a foot injury. D.J. Chark lasted only 4 games.

-Lawrence faced pressure on an unhealthy 33% of his dropbacks. He posted an ugly 4.4 YPA under pressure.

-Per Pro Football Reference, only 71.3% of Lawrence’s throws were charted as on-target (2nd worst among 33 qualifiers).

-The Jags hired HC Doug Pederson this offseason. His background as a QB developer bodes well for Lawrence.

-Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram were the main free agent adds. While underwhelming individually, collectively, they provide a clear upgrade on the ’21 cast.

-Etienne is on track to be a full go for the season, giving Lawrence a dynamic mismatch weapon out of the backfield. Of course, the duo played together at Clemson.

-Up front, Jacksonville landed the premier guard in free agency, Brandon Scherff. LT Cam Robinson was retained on the franchise tag.

-Lawrence spoke this spring about how smooth the transition has been alongside Doug Pederson. Lawrence indicated that he’ll have greater influence on the direction of the passing game.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

The top pick in the ’21 draft, Lawrence stunk as a rookie and completely fell off the fantasy map.

We still saw some flashes from the former Clemson star, whose arm talent certainly hasn’t disappeared. Simply swapping out Urban Meyer for Doug Pederson supplies a ton of optimism. But Jacksonville also upgraded the pass catching corps with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram.

While the overall talent on offense isn’t great, we see it as enough to get Lawrence much closer -- and possibly into -- QB1 range. He’s a breakout candidate we're targeting at cost (QB19).