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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 15

By Shane Hallam 3:11pm EST 12/13/23

Is it ... Zach Wilson Time?

Week 14 delivered results hitting .750 on the picks, the best week to date.

The misses were mostly game script-oriented, specifically in Cowboys-Eagles.

Dak Prescott fell 20.5 yards short of his 291.5-yard mark due to the Cowboys being up early and the game never being in danger. If the Eagles score a bit more, he likely hits.

This also was tied to CeeDee Lamb not hitting 91.5 yards in that game. An additional 21-yard pass from Prescott to Lamb in the game puts them both over their totals. 

Jared Goff was an outlier.

He did not come close to 247.5 yards despite throwing it 35 times. The Bears’ defense has been steadily improving and showcased that against the Lions. 

Let’s hope this week keeps the momentum rolling.

 

Season-to-Date Results

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Week 7: 4-8
  • Week 8: 7-8
  • Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
  • Week 10: 8-4
  • Week 11: 10-4
  • Week 12: 17-6 (two injured)
  • Week 13: 12-9 (one injured)
  • Week 14: 9-3 (two injured)
  • Overall: 158-140

 

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 15 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

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Passing Yards

Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
Draft Sharks projection: 221.2 
Underdog: 198.4 
Difference: 22.7 

Not Recommended: Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns
DS projection: 236.2 
Underdog: 213.5 
Difference: 22.7 

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
DS projection: 234.8 
Underdog: 215.5
Difference: 19.3 

Bailey Zappe, QB, New England Patriots
DS projection: 187.3 
Underdog: 176.5 
Difference: 10.8 

Not Recommended: Easton Stick, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
DS projection: 209 
Underdog: 198.5 
Difference: 10.5 

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 249.2
Underdog: 259.5
Difference: -10.3 

Desmond Ridder, QB, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 181.7 
Underdog: 193.5 
Difference: -11.8 

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
DS projection: 236.2
Underdog: 249.5
Difference: -13.3 

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
DS projection: 248.8
Underdog: 262.6
Difference: -13.7 

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 172.3 
Underdog: 189.5
Difference: -17.2

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
DS projection: 278.2
Underdog: 295.5
Difference: -17.3

Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
DS projection: 218.8
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: -20.7 

Why Not?

Joe Flacco has been a great story but is going up against an underrated Bears pass defense. Over their last three games, the Bears rank top 5 in pass-defense DVOA (-41.5%). They held four of the last five opponents under the 213.5 passing line set for Flacco.

Easton Stick draws a tougher matchup than it might seem for his first NFL start. The Raiders held Justin Herbert to only 167 yards in their first matchup. Vegas limits explosive plays, allowing the fewest 20+ yard plays in the NFL. 

Receiving Yards

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
DS projection: 72.6
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 13.1

Not Recommended: Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
DS projection: 61.2
Underdog: 49.5
Difference: 11.7

Why Not?

Amari Cooper will be hampered by an improved Bears pass defense. Chicago held their opponents’ WR1 to less than 49.5 yards in four of the last five games. It is a much more difficult matchup than the Browns have faced since Flacco became the starter.

Rushing Yards

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
DS projection: 63.9
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 15.4

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DS projection: 75.4
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 13.9

Ezekiel  Elliott, RB, New England Patriots
DS projection: 65.3
Underdog: 52.5
Difference: 12.8

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 72
Underdog: 60.5
Difference: 11.5 

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
DS projection: 73.8
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: 10.3 

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
DS projection: 48.7
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: -10.8 

‘Not Recommended’ Results

In this category, a bad record is good. These are the guys who qualify by the projections but are suggested you don’t use in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

  • Week 9: 2-4
  • Week 10: 1-2
  • Week 11: 2-1
  • Week 12: 3-2
  • Week 13: 3-3
  • Week 14: 2-1
  • Total: 13-13

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