Elite QB or Late-Round QB? The Smarter Draft Strategy

When should you draft a QB?

Nailing your QB timing can make or break your fantasy team.

Should you opt for an elite option such as Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels?

Or is a late-round QB strategy better?

What about in a Superflex league?

Let’s dive into QB draft strategy and how to find the perfect upside QB. 

Since 2019, the QB1 Has Run

Finding a Konami Code QB with rushing upside often gives you an edge over other managers.

At the very least, your starting QB needs to be able to scramble for yards and TDs when opportunities arise.

Most drafters are catching up to this line of thinking, but they still aren’t valuing rushing enough.

Since 2019, the overall QB1 has scored at least 4 rushing TDs and run for at least 350 yards every year.

Over the past five seasons, top-12 QBs have averaged 360 rushing yards and 4.2 rushing TDs.

Among the 15 top-3 QBs over the past five seasons, nine hit at least 4 rushing TDs. Eight of them hit at least 350 rushing yards.

Your odds of success improve with a QB who can hit these thresholds.

What Do Our Projections Say?

Our QB Rankings show the following QBs projected to hit at least 350 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs.

We have five other QBs close to those thresholds:

Rushing QBs give you the upside for QB1 games week to week if they can break a big run or score multiple TDs.

They also provide a high-QB2 floor every week due to rushing yards being worth more points than passing yards.

How Many QBs Should I Draft?

It depends on your team structure early in the draft.

If you draft an elite QB such as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, carrying just one into the season makes sense. You will not bench that type of starter, even in bad matchups, so those late picks are better spent on sleeper RBs and WRs.

If you're one of the last teams to take your first QB, it makes sense to take a backup.

Either approach can work, so let’s break them down.

Early QB Can Come With Consequences

Taking a high-end QB early in drafts has benefits.

Having an elite weekly starter means you don't need to draft a backup. That saves a roster spot to spend on a sleeper RB or WR late in the draft.

High-end QBs also give you a shot at QB1-overall weeks. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Drake Maye can all go nuclear.

That said, drafting a QB in the second or third round costs value at other positions.

Opportunity Cost of Top QBs

Here are two possible draft combinations (with our projected fantasy point totals) at the end of the second and seventh rounds of a 12 team PPR draft:

Due to this opportunity cost, we are staying away from most of the early QBs at ADP. 

There is no reason to reach for one above ADP, but if they fall below ADP, we love scooping them up.

QB2 Matchups Can Buy QB1 Weeks

Drafting multiple upside QBs later in your draft can work well.

There are some massive benefits to implementing a late-round QB strategy.

Savvy fantasy players can leverage strong matchups to get QB1 production from a QB2 in a given week. 

We usually get at least one late-round QB breakout, with Jayden Daniels in 2024 as a recent example.

Waiting on QB lets you take two shots at finding a sleeper and getting QB production cheaply. Kyler Murray, for example, is a QB in this range we love to draft as a late-round upside play.

The biggest benefit is what it does for the top of your roster. While league mates spend second- or third-round picks on QBs, you can wait until the 10th or 11th and load up at RB and WR.

Superflex Pushes QBs Up the Board

If you can start two QBs, the strategy shifts entirely.

Superflex and 2-QB leagues make the position far more valuable by doubling your potential QB points weekly.

This pushes the position to the top of the draft, making a later-round QB strategy much more difficult.

Strategies can vary, but usually will involve drafting at least one QB early and scooping up your second when the value presents itself.

QBs going early in superflex make them less of a value, though rushing QBs like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence are worth taking at their current ADP.

2026 QB Targets: QB1 Upside Still Slips in Drafts

QB values can pop up throughout your draft if you plan properly. Other managers may overlook a potential QB1 or overreact to an injury and miss an opportunity.

Check out our fantasy football sleepers if you want even deeper sleeper QBs.

Here are our favorite QBs to target:

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence falls just short of those rushing minimums, missing by only seven yards.

Before the bye, Lawrence ranked just QB18 in points per game across seven contests despite sitting QB6 in expected points per game. The opportunity was there, but the production was not: he managed just two top-12 weeks in that span, with three more finishes outside the top 20.

After the bye, everything clicked.

Over his final 10 games, Lawrence ranked QB1 in both actual and expected fantasy points per game and closed with four straight top-7 finishes.

Liam Coen's offense hit its stride in the middle of the season, helped by the midseason addition of Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington's emergence.

Lawrence offers QB1-overall upside at a midround price. We rank him QB7, which gives him clear value at a QB11 ADP.

Justin Herbert

Herbert also doesn’t fit the rushing minimums we explored before, but he falls just one TD short.

Herbert was good for QB9 in total fantasy points and QB8 in points per game last season, but the week-to-week ride was uneven. He had five top-5 QB performances, but only one other game that landed him in the top-12 of the week.

New OC Mike McDaniel gives Herbert a shot at more week-to-week consistency.

McDaniel's offenses peaked with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 and 2024, when Miami ranked fourth in passing yards and TDs in 2023 before climbing to first in yards and fourth in TDs in 2024. Getting that kind of production from a QB less talented than Herbert strengthens Herbert's 2026 case.

Herbert's setup looks stronger this time around. A deeper group of weapons, an OC who helped a lesser QB reach QB1 territory, and an O-line that should rebound if it stays healthy all make him a solid value in drafts.

We have Herbert at QB8 in our rankings while he sits at a QB9 ADP. 

Kyler Murray

Murray sits in the perfect position to perform better than his ADP. He meets our rushing projection thresholds above and sits in a QB-friendly offense.

The Vikings QB situation was a disaster last year, but QBs have performed under HC Kevin O’Connell in previous seasons.

In his first three years:

• 2022: fifth (34-year old Kirk Cousins)
• 2023: seventh (eight starts by Cousins, three by Nick Mullens, four by Josh Dobbs, two by Jaren Hall)
• 2024: ninth (Sam Darnold)

O’Connell and his staff appear to be QB-friendly, and getting Justin Jefferson as your lead wideout clearly helps.

Murray has not exactly disappointed for fantasy. He finished as a top-12 QB in points per game in each of his first six seasons before slipping to QB20 last year.

We rank him QB11, which makes him a strong value at a QB17 ADP.

Get the ULTIMATE Guide For Your Draft

We're happy to give you tips leading up to your draft. But fantasy football drafts NEVER go as expected.

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And as you draft, it knows who you've taken, what's left, and who's likely to get back to you. Those are just a few of the 17 value indicators measured for EVERY pick recommendation. 

Check out this video to learn more about the industry's most powerful draft tool ...