Show Navigation
Show Menu

2023's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas

By Jared Smola 8:14pm EDT 8/10/23

 

Did you profit off the Jaguars and Giants offenses in fantasy football last year?

There’s a good chance you did if you read the 2022 version of this article.

Implied totals highlighted the Jaguars and Giants as the two offenses set to make the biggest leaps from the previous season.

(The Dolphins were projected to take the fifth biggest jump in points scored — and also delivered big fantasy returns.)

Who are the undervalued and overvalued offenses in 2023?

Let’s dive into this year's numbers.

As a quick refresher, we’re using point spreads and over/unders from SuperBook to deduce how many points the oddsmakers are projecting each team to score each week this season.

The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least.

No surprises at the top, with the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles leading the way. Those were the top 3 teams in points scored last year.

It's worth noting, though, that Kansas City is projected to score 2.2 more points per game than any other team.

The oddsmakers – like us – are all in on a Chargers breakout under new OC Kellen Moore.

TIP

See just how high Justin Herbert and his weapons sit in our fantasy football rankings.

The implied totals also suggest that we shouldn't expect a dip from the Lions, who quietly ranked fifth in points scored last year.

At the bottom, the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Texans sit well below the rest of the pack. We probably shouldn’t be expecting many ceiling outcomes from fantasy players on those squads (although that doesn’t mean that we can’t find values).

Now let’s get to something more useful ...

Which offenses are expected to improve or regress the most this season?

The table below shows each team’s difference between 2023 implied points per game vs. their 2022 actual points per game.

Who are this year’s Jaguars and Giants?

These numbers suggest it’s the Jets and Broncos.

The Jets, of course, got a massive QB upgrade with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers. The boost in projected points scored makes WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall more exciting early-round fantasy picks. And later-round guys like Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, and Rodgers himself could turn out to be nice values.

TIP

"Pursue Value Above All Else" is the first pillar of our fantasy football draft strategy.

Denver’s upgrade, meanwhile, came in the coaching department, with offensive guru Sean Payton replacing clown-car captain Nathaniel Hackett.

QB Russell Wilson and Co. reportedly got off to a slow start in the new system in training camp. But the offense has been more productive in recent days.

Wilson, RBs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims, and TE Greg Dulcich could all be fantasy money makers if the implied totals are right.

Ravens and Bears in for better seasons

The Ravens are also projected for a significant increase in points per game. The offense should be faster-paced and pass-heavier under new OC Todd Monken. And we'll hope QB Lamar Jackson enjoys a healthier season after missing five games and most of a sixth last year.

Don't sleep on the Bears, who the oddsmakers project for the fourth-biggest jump in points per game. Chicago still checks in just 16th in implied points per game, but that'd be a significant leap from their 23rd-place finish last year.

Careful with the 49ers

On the flip side, the oddsmakers clearly aren’t sold on QB Brock Purdy. The 49ers are expected to dip nearly 3.5 points per game from last year – most league wide. A little scary for early-round fantasy picks like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

 

What's it mean for YOUR fantasy football draft?

Implied totals are just one of the many factors we consider when building the player projections that fuel our rankings.

Our process has led to the MOST ACCURATE fantasy football rankings over the past three seasons.

But we go a step further to help you crush your draft.

Because rankings are useless unless they're customized to your league.

The Draft War Room combines our player projections with your league rules to create the ultimate fantasy football cheat sheet.

Learn more about the Draft War Room

Related Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Breakouts 2024

Fantasy Football Breakouts 2024

10:47am EST 2/27/24

Is Drake London finally set up to deliver on his immense promise? He leads our initial list of six potential 2024 fantasy football breakouts.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

3:26pm EST 2/23/24

Want to catapult your fantasy team? You need later-round picks with big upside. These six fantasy football sleepers could make your season.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 12-Team PPR Draft Strategy

8:26am EST 2/21/24

This comprehensive fantasy football draft guide takes you pick-by-pick through 12-team PPR draft strategy. We'll help you crush your draft from any spot.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Team Names

Fantasy Football Team Names

12:23pm EST 2/20/24

Sometimes having fun is just as important as winning. Here are some tips for creating excellent fantasy football team names to make your league mates laugh.

Read More »
132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

1:18pm EST 2/13/24

From Lamar Jackson's dwindling rushing volume to Rashee Rice's elite second half, here are 132 things I learned doing 2024 fantasy football projections.

Read More »
Early Fantasy Football Rankings

Way Too Early Fantasy Football Rankings 2024

3:35pm EST 2/12/24

Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes? Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall? Let's answer those questions (and more) with a look at way too early 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Read More »
NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

NFL Playoff Fantasy Rankings

12:48pm EST 1/13/24

Hop inside to see NFL playoff fantasy rankings -- both by position and an overall top 50 -- for all of your postseason contests.

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play