2023's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas
Did you profit off the Jaguars and Giants offenses in fantasy football last year?
There’s a good chance you did if you read the 2022 version of this article.
Implied totals highlighted the Jaguars and Giants as the two offenses set to make the biggest leaps from the previous season.
(The Dolphins were projected to take the fifth biggest jump in points scored — and also delivered big fantasy returns.)
Who are the undervalued and overvalued offenses in 2023?
Let’s dive into this year's numbers.
As a quick refresher, we’re using point spreads and over/unders from SuperBook to deduce how many points the oddsmakers are projecting each team to score each week this season.
The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least.
No surprises at the top, with the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles leading the way. Those were the top 3 teams in points scored last year.
It's worth noting, though, that Kansas City is projected to score 2.2 more points per game than any other team.
The oddsmakers – like us – are all in on a Chargers breakout under new OC Kellen Moore.
See just how high Justin Herbert and his weapons sit in our fantasy football rankings.
The implied totals also suggest that we shouldn't expect a dip from the Lions, who quietly ranked fifth in points scored last year.
At the bottom, the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Texans sit well below the rest of the pack. We probably shouldn’t be expecting many ceiling outcomes from fantasy players on those squads (although that doesn’t mean that we can’t find values).
Now let’s get to something more useful ...
Which offenses are expected to improve or regress the most this season?
The table below shows each team’s difference between 2023 implied points per game vs. their 2022 actual points per game.
Who are this year’s Jaguars and Giants?
These numbers suggest it’s the Jets and Broncos.
The Jets, of course, got a massive QB upgrade with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers. The boost in projected points scored makes WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall more exciting early-round fantasy picks. And later-round guys like Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, and Rodgers himself could turn out to be nice values.
"Pursue Value Above All Else" is the first pillar of our fantasy football draft strategy.
Denver’s upgrade, meanwhile, came in the coaching department, with offensive guru Sean Payton replacing clown-car captain Nathaniel Hackett.
QB Russell Wilson and Co. reportedly got off to a slow start in the new system in training camp. But the offense has been more productive in recent days.
Wilson, RBs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine, WRs Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims, and TE Greg Dulcich could all be fantasy money makers if the implied totals are right.
Ravens and Bears in for better seasons
The Ravens are also projected for a significant increase in points per game. The offense should be faster-paced and pass-heavier under new OC Todd Monken. And we'll hope QB Lamar Jackson enjoys a healthier season after missing five games and most of a sixth last year.
Don't sleep on the Bears, who the oddsmakers project for the fourth-biggest jump in points per game. Chicago still checks in just 16th in implied points per game, but that'd be a significant leap from their 23rd-place finish last year.
Careful with the 49ers
On the flip side, the oddsmakers clearly aren’t sold on QB Brock Purdy. The 49ers are expected to dip nearly 3.5 points per game from last year – most league wide. A little scary for early-round fantasy picks like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
What's it mean for YOUR fantasy football draft?
Implied totals are just one of the many factors we consider when building the player projections that fuel our rankings.
Our process has led to the MOST ACCURATE fantasy football rankings over the past three seasons.
But we go a step further to help you crush your draft.
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