Show Navigation
Show Menu

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 16

By Shane Hallam 12:58pm EST 12/20/23

Let's Keep the Streak Going

Week 15 was another positive week with 62.5% successes.

The misses were mostly related to passing duels that were unexpected.

Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, and Jake Browning all overcame solid pass defenses to go over their projected total.   

Ineffective Offenses

Najee Harris and Ezekiel Elliott couldn’t hit their “over” numbers as both offenses struggled to move the ball. Similarly, Garrett Wilson put up a dud with two different QBs seeing time. 

Moving into the last few weeks of the regular season, some of the defensive predictions can go awry based on injury, motivation, and more as teams are knocked out of the NFL playoff picture.

We’ll keep that in mind as we try to turn seven straight winning weeks into eight!

 

Season-to-Date Results

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Week 7: 4-8
  • Week 8: 7-8
  • Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
  • Week 10: 8-4
  • Week 11: 10-4
  • Week 12: 17-6 (two injured)
  • Week 13: 12-9 (one injured)
  • Week 14: 9-3 (two injured)
  • Week 15: 10-6 (one injured)
  • Overall: 168-146

 

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 16 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

TIP

If you haven't played before, use this Underdog Fantasy promo code to get your first deposit matched up to $100.

 

Passing Yards

Tommy DeVito, QB, New York Giants
Draft Sharks projection: 219 
Underdog: 179.5
Difference: 39.5

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 225.7
Underdog: 194.5
Difference: 31.2

Joe Flacco, QB, Cleveland Browns
DS projection: 270.9
Underdog: 242.5
Difference: 28.4

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 261.2 
Underdog: 242.5
Difference: 18.7

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DS projection: 250.2 
Underdog: 231.5
Difference: 18.7

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
DS projection: 243.1
Underdog: 229.5
Difference: 13.6

Not Recommended: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
DS projection: 220.8
Underdog: 233.5
Difference: -12.7

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
DS projection: 206.9 
Underdog: 223.5
Difference: -16.6

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 246.9 
Underdog: 263.5
Difference: -16.6

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
DS projection: 268.4
Underdog: 285.5
Difference: -17.1

Why Not?

Jordan Love has gone above his 233.5 passing yards total in five of the last six games. With the potential of getting Christian Watson back, the ceiling for Love is higher than he has shown on the Packers’ losing streak. The Panthers’ pass defense is a middling 17th in DVOA for the season as well and can be exploited.  

Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
DS projection: 84
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 15.5

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 80.2
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 11.7

Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
DS projection: 40.7
Underdog: 30.5
Difference: 10.2

Rushing Yards

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 82.7 
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 14.2

Not Recommended: Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
DS projection: 59.5
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 12

Not Recommended: Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
DS projection: 70.2 
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 10.7

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
DS projection: 50.1 
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: -13.4

Why Not?

Derrick Henry was only able to muster 10 yards on 20 carries last week. Over the past three weeks, Henry has been outsnapped by Tyjae Spears 57.3% to 42.6%. With the Titans now eliminated from playoff contention, Mike Vrabel will want to get an even bigger look at Spears due to Henry’s impending free-agent status.

Henry also has fallen short of his 59.5 rushing total in four of the last six games. Even in a good matchup, there are no guarantees Henry gets enough touches.

Najee Harris played his lowest snap count of the season last week, 33.3%. He continues to play through a knee injury and has not looked effective. Add in a third-quarter fumble, and the Steelers may be losing trust in Harris.

With Mason Rudolph starting, the focus of the Bengals’ defense will be on stopping the run. The floor for Harris is too low to trust. 

‘Not Recommended’ Results

In this category, a bad record is good. These are the guys who qualify by the projections but are suggested you don’t use in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

  • Week 9: 2-4
  • Week 10: 1-2
  • Week 11: 2-1
  • Week 12: 3-2
  • Week 13: 3-3
  • Week 14: 2-1
  • Week 15: 3-0
  • Total: 16-13

The Browns comeback against the Bears ruined the “not recommended” outputs of Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper. Being forced to throw the ball led to both going way over their totals. 

Easton Stick ended up with a similar issue. The Raiders had him shut down early, but being down 42-0 at halftime means plenty of throwing the ball. 

Let’s hope the game scripts prove more favorable this week.

Related Fantasy Football

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

3:13pm EST 1/11/24

Six games ... and a lot of difficult decisions. Let's run through an exciting DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings ahead of Wild Card Weekend.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

12:33pm EST 1/7/24

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 18 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:01pm EST 1/6/24

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 18 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

9:22am EST 1/6/24

Week 18 is always tough to predict, but there are still edges to be found. See where to turn in Week 18 FanDuel tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

5:04pm EST 1/5/24

With many key players resting, Week 18 FanDuel cash games figure to be the wild west. Let's see who's set to deliver DFS value.

Read More »
Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

10:45pm EST 12/30/23

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 17 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:41pm EST 12/30/23

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 17 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play