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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 17

By Shane Hallam 2:07pm EST 12/27/23

Watch Out for QB Ground Work?

Week 16 was a mixed bag going 6-7 with an injury. 

The hits included QBs Joe Flacco, Derek Carr, and Baker Mayfield going over their totals. 

Rushing QBs

The misses included high-profile QBs such as Josh Allen and Justin Fields relying more on their legs than their arms. 

It is a good note that the rushing upside can limit passing numbers at times – even in great matchups.

Season-to-Date Results

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Week 7: 4-8
  • Week 8: 7-8
  • Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
  • Week 10: 8-4
  • Week 11: 10-4
  • Week 12: 17-6 (two injured)
  • Week 13: 12-9 (one injured)
  • Week 14: 9-3 (two injured)
  • Week 15: 10-6 (one injured)
  • Week 16: 6-7 (one injured)
  • Overall: 174-153

 

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 17 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

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Passing Yards

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Draft Sharks projection: 236.2
Underdog: 223.5
Difference: 12.7

Bailey Zappe, QB, New England Patriots
DS projection: 197.5
Underdog: 185.5
Difference: 12

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
DS projection: 241.3
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: 10.8

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 259.1
Underdog: 269.6
Difference: -10.4

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
DS projection: 249.2
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: -12.3

Receiving Yards

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
DS Projection: 80.7
Underdog: 68.5
Difference: 12.2

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
DS Projection: 58.1
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 10.6

Rushing Yards

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
DS Projection: 48.7
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: -10.8

Not Recommended: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
DS Projection: 44.7
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: -11.8

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
DS Projection: 48.8
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: -16.7

Why ‘Not’?

Alvin Kamara has gone over the 56.5 projection four of the last five weeks. He has also hit over that number every game this season with 15+ rushes in the game. The Buccaneers are a difficult match-up to be certain, but it may be more due to how exploitable their secondary is. With the fear of Kamara’s receiving ability in space, he has a shot to break a long run and work his way to the over, so stay away. 

‘Not Recommended’ Results

In this category, a bad record is good. These are the guys who qualify by the projections but are suggested you don’t use in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

  • Week 9: 2-4
  • Week 10: 1-2
  • Week 11: 2-1
  • Week 12: 3-2
  • Week 13: 3-3
  • Week 14: 2-1
  • Week 15: 3-0
  • Week 16: 3-0
  • Total: 19-13

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