Top Plays for Week 7 Underdog Pick Ems

By Matt Schauf 10:45am EDT 10/19/22

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Oh boy. We’ve got some BIG projections gaps to play with this week. Will we be printing money or looking silly by this time next week?

Of course, if you’ve played on these sports markets at all, then you know there tends to be a mix of each. Too much to one side or the other, and there’s no more market.

So before we get to the Week 7 numbers, let’s look back on Week 6.

Things went rougher than usual for our passing projections. Our clear top position through the first 5 weeks went just 2-7 among the 9 passing lines I shared in this space. I, personally, felt waaay too sure that Carson Wentz would hit clear a seemingly low bar against the Bears.

We did make up for some of that by hitting all 3 unders listed for QB total yards, and you’ll find more guys in that category this week. All told, we still landed in plus territory: 13-12 on 25 listed yardage lines.

That’s probably the way an efficient market should work out, right?

Of course, we’re not looking for market efficiency here. We’re trying to take advantage of discrepancies. We’ve still done that for the season to date in this space. And we’ll try to do it again with 26 more options available for Week 7.

Here’s the weekly tally and season performance to date …

Week 1: 16-8
Week 2: 16-8
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-9
Week 5: 10-8
Week 6: 13-12
Overall: 74-50

(Note: Remember to check the rankings pages at any point during the week to help reveal more good plays.)

Passing

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers
Draft Sharks projection: 260.1 yards
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: 20.6

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
DS: 292.2
Underdog: 275.5
Difference: 16.7

Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers
DS: 276.1
Underdog: 287.5
Difference -11.4

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
DS: 278.1
Underdog: 290.5
Difference: -12.4

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans
DS: 205.9
Underdog: 222.5
Difference: -16.6

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders
DS: 254.6
Underdog: 273.5
Difference: -18.9

Zach Wilson, QB, Jets
DS: 163.4
Underdog: 203.5
Difference: -40.1

The 49ers head toward the weekend as 3-point home underdogs in a game tied for the 2nd highest over/under (as of this writing). We saw just last week what’s possible for Garoppolo’s passing total (296 yards) when his team falls behind. He actually exceeded his current Underdog number in a victory the week before – and fell just a half-yard short on a mere 27 pass attempts in the Week 4 victory.

On the other end of this list sit Carr – who is averaging just 255.8 yards per game through 5 contests – and Wilson vs. the league’s #1 defense in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA.

QB Total Yards

Marcus Mariota, Falcons
Draft Sharks projection: 211.4 yards
Underdog: 230.5
Difference: -19.1

Daniel Jones, Giants
DS: 224
Underdog: 241.5
Difference: -17.5

Kyler Murray, Cardinals
DS: 271.6
Underdog: 284.5
Difference: -12.9

Lamar Jackson, Ravens
DS: 276.6
Underdog: 287.5
Difference: -10.9

Mariota won NFC offensive player of the week for Sunday’s win over the 49ers, and even then he totaled just 179 yards.

Receiving

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
Draft Sharks projection: 83.5 yards
Underdog: 67.5
Difference: 16

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
DS: 77.8
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 13.3

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
DS: 71.6
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 13.1

Allen Lazard, WR, Packers
DS: 59.2
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 11.7

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
DS: 77.1
Underdog: 66.5
Difference: 10.6

David Njoku, TE, Browns
DS: 53.4
Underdog: 42.5
Difference: 10.9

George Kittle, TE, 49ers
DS: 56
Underdog: 46.5
Difference: 9.5

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
DS: 60.7
Underdog: 51.5
Difference: 9.2

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
DS: 69
Underdog: 76.5
Difference: -7.5

Lamb went over 67.5 receiving yards 4 of the past 5 weeks with Cooper Rush as his starter. He’s expected to get Dak Prescott back this week to face a generous Lions defense.

The Underdog numbers in this category and below suggest a lack of belief in the Seattle offense. Or perhaps it’s too much faith in the Chargers’ D. That unit does still rank a solid 11th in pass-defense DVOA but has allowed the 11th most passing yards. The Chargers are also tied for 10th most WR receptions allowed and have yielded the 15th most yards to the position.

Although it’s not directly tied to yardage, L.A.’s ranking of 4th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs might paint the best picture of this particular matchup. HC Brandon Staley benched big-money CB J.C. Jackson for the 2nd half of Monday night’s game because of poor play.

Rushing

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks
Draft Sharks projection: 79.3 yards
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 13.8

Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders
DS: 68.4
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 12.9

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
DS: 76.2
Underdog: 64.5
Difference: 11.7

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
DS: 73.5
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: 10

RB Total Yards

Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Draft Sharks projection: 122.9 yards
Underdog: 91.5
Difference: 31.4

Breece Hall, Jets
DS: 100.6
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: 21.1

If you still don’t feel like betting on the Seattle passing game here – or even just want to hedge your bets – Walker stands out for Week 7 Pick Ems. The current 6-point line in L.A.’s favor might not point to favorable conditions for the visiting RB. But we’ve already seen 5 RBs top 65.5 rushing yards against the Chargers. That included Latavius Murray on Monday night and Clyde Edwards-Helaire on just 8 carries in Week 2. It probably would have been 6-for-6, but the Raiders gave Josh Jacobs only 10 rushing attempts (for 57 yards) in the opener.

Speaking of Jacobs: You can expect his prop to rise through the week. He has gone over that 91.5 total yards in 3 straight games – way over it the last 2 times out. And 2 of those overs came in Raiders losses. They’re 7-point home favorites over the Texans as of this writing. And Jacobs has topped 5.0 yards per carry in 4 of 5 games.