Week 10 FanDuel Tournament Picks
Last week we were robbed of some of the most popular games with Aaron Rodgers out with COVID and Kyler Murray dealing with an injury. This week presents the other side of the coin.There are plenty of superstar fantasy talents in great spots and several excellent game environments with high over/unders to target.
The ceiling of the top-end QBs this week is too good to pass up.I will be paying up at QB and looking to save salary elsewhere.
Josh Allen ($8,700)
Projected Ownership: 14.8%
The burn of Josh Allen and the Bills offense is going to scare some people from going back to the well. But in DFS, we value process over results. The result was the Bills offense laying an egg in a smash matchup with Jacksonville. However, sticking to the process leads us to another favorable matchup this week.
The Bills have a 30.25-point implied team total facing a Jets defense that ranks 30th in passing DVOA, 28th in PFF coverage grade, and allows the 5th most adjusted fantasy points to the QB position. Another great spot for Josh Allen and the Bills, who may be without RB Zack Moss as well.
Tom Brady ($8,300)
Projected Ownership: 7.3%
The passing floor that Brady presents is so high that he projects as well as rushing QBs like Lamar Jackson. Brady has 4 or more passing TDs in 5 of 8 games this season and 35+ pass attempts in every game. The Washington defense ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, 31st in pass defense DVOA and 30th in PFF coverage grade.
Dak Prescott ($8,100)
Projected Ownership: 11.5%
Similar theme to Josh Allen: The process was sound on Dak last week, but the results weren’t. Dak is in another great spot this week with the highest implied team point total on the main slate at 31.75 and the highest over/under as well at 55 points. The Falcons defense has only played one elite offense all season, allowing 48 points to the Bucs.
Also consider: Justin Herbert ($8,000) & Carson Wentz ($7,500)
Every decision point this week in DFS stems from the RB position, whether or not to play chalky backup options D’Ernest Johnson ($5,400), Mark Ingram ($5,300), Devin Singletary ($6,000), or Brandon Bolden ($5,100).
We’ll also need to decide which of the superstar RBs to play between Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor and Ezekiel Elliott.
Najee Harris ($9,400)
Projected Ownership: 18.4%
Harris presents the best combination of floor and ceiling among these high-end RBs. He’s the engine of his offense, currently leading the NFL in weighted opportunities with 21.5 per game. Additionally, he sees a Lions defense that allows the 2nd most adjusted fantasy points to RBs, including 16 total TDs to the position, which is tied for the most with the Jets.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000)
Projected Ownership: 16.1%
The Falcons rank 5th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the RB position. Before last week when Elliott was dealing with injuries, he had topped 20+ opportunities in 5 straight games.He’s increased his targets, as well, posting 18 over the last 3 games. The Cowboys are 10-point favorites with nearly 32 implied points.
Melvin Gordon ($6,300)
Projected Ownership: 5.6%
This slate is set up to be one of the most condensed ownership slates in a few weeks. With plenty of people honing in on either the high-end RBs or the cheap backups, mid-range guys like Gordon can provide a lot of leverage.
The Eagles defense is currently allowing the 8th most adjusted fantasy points to RBs as well as the 2nd most rushing attempts overall this season.
D’Ernest Johnson ($5,400) & Devin Singletary ($6,000)
Projected Ownership: 27.3% & 5.2%
Between these two, Brandon Bolden and Mark Ingram, Johnson and Singletary are the ones I am opting for if I need salary relief. Nick Chubb has already been ruled out, but Singletary still awaits the status of Zack Moss, who is still in concussion protocol.
Johnson played 70% of the snaps and received 24 opportunities when Chubb was out in Week 7.He faces a defense allowing top 12 adjusted fantasy points to RBs as well as the second most PPR receiving points to RBs.
Singletary faces a Jets defense that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed, 31st in rush defense DVOA, and is the only team allowing more receiving production to RBs than the Patriots.
Diontae Johnson ($7,400)
Projected Ownership: 16.3%
Johnson was already a player who routinely commanded double-digit targets per game (5 of 7 games this season).JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool’s absences make him a lock for a high target share. The Lions have allowed big performances to opposing #1 WRs all season, including 100-yard games from Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson.
Mike Evans ($7,400) & Tyler Johnson ($5,100)
Projected Ownership: 10.4% & 25.4%
Antonio Brown & Rob Gronkowski have already been ruled out for this matchup vs. Washington, who is the single easiest matchup in the NFL for WRs. We also have Chris Godwin listed as a game-time decision with a foot injury. Johnson provides much-needed salary relief this week and Evans presents a massive ceiling.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,200)
Projected Ownership: 16.3%
Pittman has performed in great matchups in the past, most recently his 10-86-2 performance against the Titans 2 weeks ago. A 25% target share against the Jaguars' 32nd ranked pass defense in DVOA is a worthy investment. The Colts are also expected to put up points in this game, currently with the 4th highest implied total of 28.75 points.
Mike Williams ($6,900)
Projected Ownership: 5.3%
Williams has seen his role change over the last few weeks. After posting an average depth of target between 8-10 yards working as a true X receiver in Weeks 1-3, his ADOT has spiked to 14-16. Nonetheless, Williams faces a Vikings defense that is allowing the 4th highest deep pass rate in the NFL at 14.3% and is missing a bunch of key players.
Dalton Schultz ($6,000)
Projected Ownership: 4.7%
Schultz finds himself towards the top of the TE price range, but on FanDuel we have a bit more salary flexibility. Playing Schultz leverages away from CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott. If Schultz can get into the end zone this week, it’ll differentiate your Cowboys stacks in large tournaments.
Cameron Brate ($4,500)
Projected Ownership: 7.0%
For some reason, O.J. Howard is the more expensive of the 2 Buccaneers TEs, despite Brate running 65% of the routes in 3 straight games without Rob Gronkowski. In a game where the Buccaneers are implied for the 2nd most points in at 30.5, Brate offers cheap exposure and a solid chance at a TD. His 7 red-zone targets rank top 12 at the position — despite not being the starting TE when Gronk was healthy.
Also consider: Kyle Pitts ($6,900)
Dallas Cowboys ($4,200)
Projected Ownership: 3.5%
Due to the emergence of these backup RBs, it frees us up to pay up in other areas. One way to differentiate your lineup is to play expensive defenses. The Cowboys are 10-point home favorites and have plenty of playmakers like Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons that can create turnovers.
Also consider: Carolina ($3,600)