Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 7

   

Welcome to Week 7’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The data below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 7 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 7!

 

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Seahawks at Falcons (52.0)
2. Panthers at Commanders (51.5)
3. Lions at Vikings (50.5)
4. Ravens at Buccaneers (49.5)
5. Texans at Packers (48.5)
6. Chiefs at 49ers (47.0)

     

Lowest Game Totals

12. Bengals at Browns (41.5)
13. Titans at Bills (41.0)
14. Jets at Steelers (39.0)
15. Broncos at Saints (37.0)

         

Highest Implied Points

1. Commanders (30.5)
2. Falcons (27.5)
3. Ravens (26.5)
4. Vikings (26.0)
5. Packers (25.75)
6. Bills (25.25)

   

Lowest Implied Points

25. Steelers (18.5)
t-26. Browns (18.0)
t-26. Raiders (18.0)
28. Patriots (17.5)
29. Saints (17.25)
30. Titans (15.75)

  

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected through 6 weeks:

       

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Ravens (65.6)
2. Seahawks (65.5)
3. Lions (65.0)
4. Texans (64.7)
5. Eagles (64.2)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

26. Raiders (59.9)
27. Saints (59.8)
28. Cardinals (59.7)
29. Colts (59.5)
30. Titans (58.6)

     

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Seahawks at Falcons (25.2 seconds)
2. Dolphins at Colts (26.1 seconds)
3. Broncos at Saints (27.4 seconds)
4. Texans at Packers (27.9 seconds)
5. Eagles at Giants (28.0 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

t-11. Chargers at Cardinals (28.8 seconds)
t-11. Titans at Bills (28.8 seconds)
13. Lions at Vikings (28.9 seconds)
14. Bengals at Browns (29.0 seconds)
15. Panthers at Commanders (29.7 seconds)

    

Weather Concerns

Titans at Bills

Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. That's reason enough to shy away from the kickers in this game, but we're not adjusting projections for the QBs or pass catchers.

  

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Commanders vs. Panthers (+72.1%)
2. Ravens at Buccaneers (+57.7%)
3. 49ers vs. Chiefs (+46.6%)
4. Bengals at Browns (+42.5%)
5. Bills vs. Titans (+42.0)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

26. Broncos at Saints (-10.2%)
27. Dolphins at Colts (-15.8%)
28. Lions at Vikings (-16.1%)
29. Titans at Bills (-19.1%)
30. Browns vs. Bengals (-33.2%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Drake Maye vs. Jaguars (+78%)
2. Kirk Cousins vs. Seahawks (+49%)
3. Jayden Daniels vs. Panthers (+35%)
4. Matt Stafford vs. Raiders (+30%)
5. Baker Mayfield vs. Ravens (+28%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Bo Nix at Saints (-17%)
27. Russell Wilson vs. Jets (-21%)
28. Aaron Rodgers at Steelers (-23%)
29. Spencer Rattler vs. Broncos (-34%)
30. Anthony Richardson vs. Dolphins (-42%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Kirk Cousins, Falcons

There's a lot to like about Cousins' Week 7 spot.

His game's 51.5-point over/under is tied for highest of the week. Atlanta's 27.25-point implied total is second-highest. And, as noted above, Falcons-Seahawks is the fastest-paced game of the week. These teams rank third and first in situation-neutral pace. That should mean elevated play volume on both sides.

Cousins gets a struggling Seahawks pass defense that's coughed up 804 yards and seven TDs over the last three games to QBs Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy. Seattle is down to 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold was not good last time out against a tough Jets defense. But now he comes off his bye week for a high-upside spot vs. Detroit.

The Lions have a good pass defense, ranking fifth in DVOA. But they've allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game.

Why? Because they're a pass-funnel defense. Teams aren't trying to run against a stout Lions run defense. They rank second in pass rate over expected against. As a result, they've faced the third fewest rush attempts per game but the third most passes.

Darnold's Vikings have already been a pass-leaning offense, ranking fourth in pass rate over expected. They'll likely lean even further toward the pass against Detroit this weekend, boosting Darnold's fantasy projection.

This Vikings-Lions game sports a big 50.5-point over/under, and Minnesota's 26.25-point implied total is fourth highest on the week.

 

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Commanders vs. Panthers (+19.1%)
2. Ravens at Buccaneers (+10.7%)
3. Colts vs. Dolphins (+9.0%)
4. Rams vs. Raiders (+7.9%)
5. Falcons vs. Seahawks (+5.7%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

26. Dolphins at Colts (-23.9%)
27. Cardinals vs. Chargers (-24.8%)
28. Patriots vs. Jaguars (-27.5%)
29. 49ers vs. Chiefs (-33.5%)
30. Jets at Steelers (-42.2%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders vs. Panthers (+69%)
2. Titans at Bills (+48%)
3. Patriots at Jaguars (+31%)
4. Rams vs. Raiders (+30%)
5. Panthers at Commanders (+25%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Buccaneers vs. Ravens (-24%)
27. Lions at Vikings (-26%)
28. Packers vs. Texans (-28%)
29. Vikings vs. Lions (-30%)
30. 49ers vs. Chiefs (-48%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Austin Ekeler, Commanders

We're projecting Brian Robinson back from his knee injury this week. But there's a chance that he's still limited.

And there could certainly be enough to go around in Washington's backfield to produce two viable fantasy starters. The Commanders are implied for a week-high 29.75 points against a Panthers team that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. In fact, Carolina has allowed two RBs to score 14+ PPR points in three straight games.

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons

There should be lots of fantasy points to be found in Sunday's Seahawks-Falcons game. It has a 51-point over/under, and Atlanta's 27-point implied total is second-highest on the week.

Allgeier is coming off a season-high 19 opportunities (carries + targets) last week and has tallied 9+ in four of his last five games.

Seattle has been getting gashed by the run lately, allowing 6.1 yards per carry to RBs over the last three weeks.

Justice Hill, Ravens

If you're digging deep in a PPR league, consider Hill.

We've already seen him catch six passes in two games this season. This week could be another spot where he pops. The Buccaneers are capable of turning this game into a shootout, which would help Hill's chances. And Tampa Bay is a bit of a pass funnel, ranking fourth in pass rate over expected against.

   

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Patriots vs. Jaguars (+52%)
2. Buccaneers vs. Ravens (+33%)
3. Ravens at Buccaneers (+24%)
4. Browns vs. Bengals (+21%)
5. Vikings vs. Lions (+20%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. 49ers vs. Chiefs (-20%)
27. Colts vs. Dolphins (-20%)
28. Jets at Steelers (-21%)
29. Bills vs. Titans (-34%)
30. Saints vs. Broncos (-40%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Lions CBs Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks and Cordale Flott

Packers WR Jayden Reed vs. Texans CB Jalen Pitre

Seahawks WRs D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell, Clark Phillips, and Dee Alford

Panthers WRs Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Mike Sainristil, and Noah Igbinoghene

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown vs. Panthers CBs Mike Jackson, Jaycee Horn, and Troy Hill

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

49ers WRs Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings vs. Chiefs CBs Jaylen Watson, Nazeeh Johnson, and Trent McDuffie

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams vs. Steelers CBs Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson

Bills WRs Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir vs. Titans CBs L'Jarius Sneed, Jarvis Brownlee, and Roger McCreary

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed

Titans WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley vs. Bills CBs Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas, and Taron Johnson

       

Sneaky Starters

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

Sunday's Seahawks-Falcons game should produce a lot of plays, pass attempts, and fantasy points. Break start/sit decisions in favor of this game.

Smith-Njigba's matchup is strong. Atlanta ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has particularly struggled against slot receivers. JSN has played 83% of his snaps in the slot this season.

Jordan Addison, Vikings

We're expecting a lot of pass attempts from the Vikings this weekend. They already rank fourth in pass rate over expected and now get a Lions defense that ranks second in pass rate over expected against.

Addison has drawn a 19% target share in three games this season and should remain heavily involved with TE T.J. Hockenson still out.

Detroit ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Demario Douglas, Patriots

It's no coincidence that Douglas had his best game of the season in QB Drake Maye's first start. The rookie gives this Patriots passing game some juice.

Assuming Maye's knee issue doesn't keep him out of Sunday morning's game vs. the Jaguars, Douglas will be worth considering as a WR4 or Flex in PPR leagues. He's now seen 9 targets in three of his last four games, and HC Jerod Mayo said he's considering getting Douglas into two-WR sets.

The Jaguars rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

   

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Falcons vs. Seahawks (+109%)
2. Jets at Steelers (+76%)
3. 49ers vs. Chiefs (+64%)
4. Lions at Vikings (+53%)
5. Texans at Packers (+53%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

26. Bengals at Browns (-29%)
27. Colts vs. Dolphins (-32%)
28. Packers vs. Texans (-33%)
29. Giants vs. Eagles (-45%)
30. Bills vs. Titans (-56%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Dalton Schultz, Texans

With WR Nico Collins out last week, Schultz drew a season-high eight targets on a season-high 25% share.

Collins is out again for Sunday's game vs. the Packers, which should be tight with shootout potential. Green Bay ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, coughing up a 7-52-0 line to Colby Parkinson and an 8-96-0 to Trey McBride the past two weeks.

Zach Ertz, Commanders

Washington's 29.75-point implied total is the highest we've seen for any team this season. Everyone in this offense has elevated fantasy upside in this matchup.

The Panthers rank 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals at Browns (+245%)
2. Colts vs. Dolphins (+140%)
3. Broncos at Saints (+100%)
4. Jaguars vs. Patriots (+88%)
5. Rams vs. Raiders (+79%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Dolphins at Colts (-41%)
27. Seahawks at Falcons (-44%)
28. Vikings vs. Lions (-53%)
29. Panthers at Commanders (-67%)
30. Buccaneers vs. Ravens (-72%)

    

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 7 Streaming DSTs.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Joshua Karty vs. Raiders (+72%)
2. Jason Myers at Falcons (+54%)
3. Tyler Bass vs. Titans (+36%)
4. Matt Gay vs. Colts (+32%)
5. Austin Seibert vs. Panthers (+31%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

26. Cameron Dicker at Cardinals (-20%)
27. Ka'imi Fairbairn at Packers (-35%)
28. Greg Zuerlein at Steelers (-44%)
29. Chad Ryland vs. Chargers (-49%)
30. Jake Bates at Vikings (-56%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Austin Seibert, Commanders

Seibert has been nearly perfect this season, making 15 of 16 FG attempts and all 15 of his XPs. He leads all kickers in fantasy points per game.

Week 7 brings an ideal matchup with his Commanders 8-point home favorites with a huge 29.75-point implied total.

Seibert surprisingly remains available in 55% of Sleeper leagues.