Week 7 Matchups That Matter: Jaylen Warren Ready To Roll Again

Welcome to Week 7’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 7 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 7!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Packers at Lions (55.5)
t-2. Patriots at Bears (50.5)
t-2. 49ers at Falcons (50.5)
4. Rams at Raiders (48.5)
5. Bengals at Ravens (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-10. Giants at Texans (42.5)
t-10. Chiefs at Seahawks (42.5)
12. Colts at Vikings (41.5)
13. Dolphins at Jets (39.5)
14. Browns at Titans (37.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Lions (29.5)
2. Bears (26.75)
t-3. Texans (26.5)
t-3. 49ers (26.5)
t-5. Rams (26.0)
t-5. Packers (26.0)

Lowest Projected Points

24. Cardinals (19.5)
t-25. Titans (17.75)
t-25. Dolphins (17.75)
27. Colts (17.5)
28. Giants (16.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Lions (64.6)
2. Bears (64.1)
3. Rams (63.8)
4. Panthers (63.5)
5. Packers (63.4)

Fewest Projected Plays

23. Eagles (61.0)
24. Jets (60.8)
25. Colts (60.4)
26. Giants (60.2)
27. Dolphins (59.5)
28. Titans (58.6)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Cowboys at Eagles (27.25 seconds)
2. Packers at Lions (27.5 seconds)
3. Steelers vs. Saints (27.6 seconds)
4. Rams at Raiders (27.85 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

t-11. Bengals at Ravens (30.25 seconds)
t-11. 49ers at Falcons (30.25 seconds)
13. Dolphins at Jets (30.5 seconds)
14. Colts at Vikings (31.0 seconds)

Weather Concerns

No weather issues this week!

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 6 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 7 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Jordan Love at Lions (+53.8%)
2. Bo Nix at Cardinals (+27.7%)
3. Tanner McKee vs. Cowboys (+22.8%)
4. C.J. Stroud vs. Giants (+21.8%)
5. Matthew Stafford at Raiders (+20.7%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

24. Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers (-17.1%)
25. Tyler Shough vs. Steelers (-20.7%)
26. Caleb Williams vs. Patriots (-27.8%)
27. Patrick Mahomes at Seahawks (-37.3%)
28. Daniel Jones at Vikings (-50.7%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 6 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 7 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Eagles vs. Cowboys (+28.6%)
2. Steelers vs. Saints (+26.3%)
3. Jets vs. Dolphins (+21.9%)
4. Lions vs. Packers (+19.0%)
5. Falcons vs. 49ers (+18.4%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

24. Bengals at Ravens (-12.8%)
25. Patriots at Bears (-14.4%)
26. Broncos at Cardinals (-18.5%)
27. Titans vs. Browns (-27.6%)
28. Colts at Vikings (-34.3%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Packers at Lions (+33.5%)
2. Giants at Texans (+21.8%)
3. Rams at Raiders (+16.8%)
4. Browns at Titans (+16.4%)
5. Steelers at Saints (+10.7%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

24. Cardinals vs. Broncos (-15.0%)
25. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (-16.1%)
26. Colts at Vikings (-19.7%)
27. Chiefs at Seahawks (-24.1%)
28. Jets vs. Dolphins (-26.4%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary

Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Keionte Scott

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper, and Adonai Mitchell vs. Dolphins CBs Julius Brents, Jason Marshall, and Chris Johnson

Patriots WR A.J. Brown vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson and Malik Muhammad

Steelers WRs D.K. Metcalf and Germie Bernard vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Broncos WRs Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton vs. Cardinals CBs Max Melton, Denzel Burke, and Garrett Williams

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen

Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett

Colts WRs Josh Downs and Keenan Allen vs. Vikings CBs Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Packers at Lions (+116.5%)
2. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (+70.1%)
3. Rams at Raiders (+49.2%)
4. Ravens vs. Bengals (+45.7%)
5. Buccaneers at Panthers (+42.1%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

24. Colts at Vikings (-33.7%)
25. Browns at Titans (-34.5%)
26. Chiefs at Seahawks (-37.1%)
27. Bears vs. Patriots (-37.7%)
28. Raiders vs. Rams (-51.2%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Texans vs. Giants (+133.4%)
2. Browns at Titans (+66.7%)
3. Chiefs at Seahawks (+64.5%)
4. 49ers at Falcons (+61.6%)
5. Panthers vs. Buccaneers (+50.6%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

24. Eagles vs. Cowboys (-41.7%)
25. Buccaneers at Panthers (-47.0%)
26. Seahawks vs. Chiefs (-56.5%)
27. Falcons vs. 49ers (-73.8%)
28. Packers at Lions (-80.1%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 7 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Ryan Fitzgerald vs. Buccaneers (+48.0%)
2. Daniel Carlson vs. Steelers (+43.5%)
3. Will Reichard vs. Colts (+38.0%)
4. Matt Gay vs. Rams (+33.9%)
5. Nick Folk vs. 49ers (+30.6%)

5 Worst K Matchups

24. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Giants (-18.6%)
25. Cairo Santos vs. Patriots (-26.1%)
26. Trey Smack at Lions (-45.2%)
27. Andres Borregales at Bears (-47.3%)
28. Jake Bates vs. Packers (-57.7%)