Week 10 Streaming Picks | Draft Sharks

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Week 10 Streaming Picks

By Matt Schauf 1:11pm EST 11/7/18


Which D should you play this week? Whichever one is playing the Bills, of course.

According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed formula, Buffalo's adding 134% to average scoring for opponent team defenses. That's 54 percentage points higher than the next most favorable matchup (Giants) and more than double the boost from the 3rd team on that list (Cardinals).

The problem: We all know about the Buffalo matchup boost at this point. So you can't wait until the Wednesday waiver run (or whenever your league does it) to chase the week's Bills opponent. As of midday this Wednesday, the Jets' D (Week 10 opponent) had already jumped 41.9 percentage points in ESPN ownership -- to 70.6%.

So the Jets went from barely owned as a fantasy defense to barely available before the week's most common waiver day. That means we have to start looking further ahead if we want to keep swimming in the stream.

After their Week 11 bye, the Bills go:

Jacksonville
at Miami
N.Y. Jets
Detroit
At New England
Miami (Week 17)

That Week 13 rematch is a reason to consider keeping the Jets D beyond this week if you managed to pick it up. And go ahead and stash Miami -- especially if your league plays through Week 17.

Of course, we won’t all be able to play [Bills opponent] in a given week, so how about some other look-ahead options? Keep these defenses in mind (or go ahead and add one now):

Week 11: Steelers (at Jaguars), Cardinals (vs. Raiders)
Week 12: Bills (vs. Jaguars), Bengals (vs. Browns), Colts (vs. Dolphins)
Week 13: Packers (vs. Cardinals), Bills (at Dolphins), Titans (vs. Jets), Seahawks (vs. 49ers)

Miss out on the Jets for Week 10 and still need a defense? Read on ...


QB: Baker Mayfield, Browns

If you grabbed Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, then just keep rolling with him until they shut down the ride again (or until he visits the Ravens in Week 15). If you didn’t, then it’s close between Mayfield, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott for this week’s top streamer spot -- and the lowest ESPN owned rate for any QB above them is Alex Smith’s 50%.

All 3 QBs are capable of starter-level numbers this week and can supplement their passing with solid rushing production. But Mayfield draws the most favorable matchup. Atlanta has provided the league’s 3rd most favorable matchup for QB scoring, adding 21% over expected to enemy QBs. Only Nick Foles way back in Week 1 has failed to crack 20 fantasy points against the Falcons. Every other opponent has thrown for more than 300 yards or 3+ TDs -- including 4 who did both.

Mayfield delivered his 1st top-12 fantasy performance last week but has tossed 2 TD passes in 3 straight. He also hasn’t imploded at a lineup-killing level in any of his 6 starts.

Check our full Week 10 rankings here.
Last week’s pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB5 finish)


TE: Ricky Seals-Jones, Cardinals

If you’ve found a streaming-level TE who has worked for you in recent weeks -- such as Chris Herndon or Jeff Heuerman last week -- then you might want to just stick with him. It’s a pretty bare cupboard to pick these days.

If you reach Week 10 in need, however, take a shot on this 2nd-year Cardinal. The 1st mark in Seals-Jones’ favor is this Sunday’s matchup. The Chiefs arrive as the league’s 3rd most friendly TE matchup, adding 40.5% to expected scoring for the position. Also -- in case you haven’t heard -- they feature this wildly high-scoring offense nearly certain to build a big lead against Arizona.

Seals-Jones has accomplished nothing special this year, but he has seen 4+ targets in 7 of 8 games and reached 6 four times. For the year, he ranks 15th among all TEs and 3rd among Cardinals in targets (5 ahead of David Johnson).

Before the bye, Josh Rosen rang up his 2 largest passing-attempt totals to date. This week carries the potential for another 40+. And if RSJ works out this week, he carries the bonus of another nice matchup with Oakland in Week 11.

Check our full Week 10 rankings here.
Last week’s pick: Chris Herndon (TE13 across formats)


D/ST: Bills

The Jets’ early ownership jump makes them ineligible for this spot. Same with the Chiefs, who have jumped from 46.4% owned on ESPN to 76.4% this week. So we’ll look to the other side of that Jets-Bills matchup.

According to Football Outsiders, Buffalo is now up to #2 in the league in overall defensive efficiency: 3rd-best against the run and 10th vs. the pass. Now comes a visit to the Jets, who have provided a top-10 scoring matchup so far for fantasy defenses.

QB Sam Darnold will sit this week with a foot sprain, leaving Josh McCown to step in. Perhaps that actually makes the Jets a tougher matchup for team-D scoring, given Darnold’s league-high 14 INTs. McCown sported just a 2.3% INT rate last year and has thrown picks at just a 2.4% rate over the past 5 years. That would rank just 16th-highest in the league this year (compared with Darnold’s #2 ranking).

But we’re still talking about an offense that has supplied the league’s 3rd most giveaways, including 6 lost fumbles. The Jets have also allowed 3+ sacks in 2 of their past 3 games and scored 17 points or fewer in 6 of 9 contests. Pro Football Focus rates them just 23rd in pass protection; the Bills defense 6th-best in pass-rushing.

Check our full Week 10 rankings here.
Last week’s pick: Dolphins (#2 in ESPN scoring)

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