Week 12 FanDuel Tournament Picks
The Week 12 DFS slate is more challenging than usual. With 3 games on Thanksgiving, the main slate has been downsized to just 10 games and many of the top QB options aren’t available. With Dak Prescott and Josh Allen playing Thursday, Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray on bye, and Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson playing primetime games, we may have to dig deep at QB.
On FanDuel, mobile QBs do not come at a discount with Jalen Hurts ($8,400), Cam Newton ($8,000) & Tyrod Taylor ($7,400) all priced within the top 8 QBs in salary. Navigating the QB position on FanDuel is tricky this week.
Tom Brady ($8,200)
Brady profiles as the best option and a solid mix of a high floor and ceiling. The Buccaneers currently have the highest implied point total on the main slate at 28.The Colts rank 20th in pass defense DVOA vs. 2nd against the run. Tom Brady has been great against pass funnel defenses this season, averaging over 40 attempts per game.
Kirk Cousins ($7,500)
Cousins is priced right below the top tier of QBs, which makes him an intriguing play. Kirk has thrown 2+ TDs on 35+ pass attempts in 4 of his last 5 games, despite some difficult matchups against CAR, DAL & LAC. Additionally, Justin Jefferson has the highest PFF matchup advantage of any WR on the main slate.
Zach Wilson ($6,200)
This is only for large-field tournaments, but Wilson has flashed big-play upside so far in his NFL career. He faces the 9th easiest defense in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and is currently priced below QBs like Dwayne Haskins and Jacoby Brissett. Stacking him with Elijah Moore allows you to pay up at other positions.
Other options: Justin Herbert ($7,800) & Jalen Hurts ($8,400)
Najee Harris ($8,800)
The Bengals are allowing the 7th most adjusted fantasy points to RBs this season and 4th most over the last 4 games. They are also allowing the most targets to RBs this season at nearly 10 per game, due in large part to Najee himself posting 19 targets against them in Week 4. He also projects to garner the least ownership among the elite RBs this week (McCaffrey/Taylor/Ekeler).
Joe Mixon ($8,000)
The Bengals have prioritized the run in recent weeks and it’s resulted in 6 rushing TDs in the last 4 games for Mixon. The Bengals are 3.5-point home favorites in this game and the Steelers' run defense has been exploitable in recent weeks. D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler combined for nearly 60 FanDuel points over the last 2 games against Pittsburgh.
James Robinson ($6,200)
Robinson has been able to perform despite two top 3 rush defenses in DVOA the last two games (Colts/49ers). This matchup profiles much better for Robinson with Jacksonville only being 2-point underdogs to a struggling Falcons team and facing a defense that ranks 5th worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Our projections have Robinson’s ceiling 4th highest among RBs.
Miles Sanders ($6,100)
Sanders only played 46% of the snaps and ran 39% of routes in his first game back in Week 11. However, before Sanders was hurt he saw 75% and 83% of the snaps in Weeks 5 and 6. From Weeks 1-6, the Eagles ran at a 42% rate (11th lowest), but since Week 7 they are running at a 47% rate (5th highest). The role Sanders returns to is much more valuable now and the Giants rank 30th in rush defense DVOA.
Cheaper options: Ty Johnson ($5,200) & Javonte Williams ($5,700)
Deebo Samuel ($8,000)
Samuel has seen a 32.6% target share this season and has 13 carries over the past 2 games. He’s created so much on his own that Kyle Shanahan manufactures touches for him more than any other WR in the NFL. This makes his weekly volume extremely safe.He has 0 games with fewer than 9 opportunities this season. The Vikings' defense currently ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Keenan Allen ($7,000)
Allen has received double-digit targets in 4 straight games.The Broncos are allowing the 10th most fantasy points per game to slot WRs over their last 5. Denver’s slot corner Kyle Fuller has allowed a 107.9 passer rating in his coverage and has a PFF coverage grade of 42.3 this season.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,600)
Jonathan Taylor stole the show last week for the Colts, leaving Pittman as the forgotten man. The Buffalo/Colts game had poor weather conditions (trust me, I was there), so it makes sense that the Colts leaned on the run. This week presents a pass funnel Buccaneers defense that ranks 11th most difficult for RBs with star NT Vita Vea returning but 9th easiest for WRs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Teams are also averaging a 67% pass rate when facing the Buccaneers this season, which ranks 1st in the NFL.
Elijah Moore ($6,400)
DFS players are no longer getting a heavy discount on Moore. He’s the WR3 in fantasy PPG since Week 8, but many will hesitate to play him due to Zach Wilson’s return. Moore finally saw over 80% of the routes last week, supplanting Jamison Crowder. The Texans are giving up the 13th most points to fantasy WRs.
Dart throws: Laviska Shenault ($5,600), Jakobi Meyers ($5,700) & Van Jefferson ($5,400)
Pat Freiermuth ($5,300)
Freiermuth saw his route participation decrease with Eric Ebron’s return from injury in recent weeks. However, Ebron is out for this game. Without Ebron on the field in Weeks 8 and 9, Freiermuth ran 68% and 73% of the teams' routes, respectively, and scored 3 TDs.
Tyler Higbee ($5,400)
Higbee has run a route on 84% of Matt Stafford’s drop backs this season and 95% in each of the past 2 games before the Rams bye week. Usage drives ceiling for fantasy TEs and Higbee running a high percentage of routes for a top 3 offense in total DVOA is bound to produce a big game eventually.
Other options: Rob Gronkowski ($6,500) & Dallas Goedert ($5,900)
Teddy Bridgewater has struggled against tough pass defenses this season. He threw 3 INTs against Vegas in Week 6, was sacked 4 times against Dallas in Week 9, and only managed 13 points against Philly before the bye. The Chargers rank 9th in pass defense DVOA and the Broncos are giving up the 5th most adjusted fantasy points to defenses.
Also consider: Atlanta ($3,800)