Week 13 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) + Travis Kelce ($7,900) + JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,700) and/or Skyy Moore ($3,100)
Mahomes has been regularly turning in tournament-winning outings all season. He’s topped 30 DK points 6 times, including in 5 of his last 7 games.
There’s a good chance that Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense is actually pushed on Sunday, which hasn’t been the case in plenty of games this season. Kansas City is favored by just 2.5 points against a Bengals team that will get WR Ja’Marr Chase back this weekend. This game has a juicy 53-point over/under.
Cincinnati’s pass defense was strong early on this season but has struggled without top CB Chidobe Awuzie. The Bengals rank 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks.
Mahomes is projected for just 7% ownership – because he’s expensive and because there are lots of other attractive QB options this week.
Kelce has topped 20 DK points in 5 of Mahomes’ 6 games with 30+. That includes monster outings of 29.1, 33.5 and 38.5 points. If an $8,300 Mahomes is a tournament winner, there’s a good chance that he brings Kelce with him.
There’s also a good chance that at least 1 of Kansas City’s WRs also has a big game, so I’ll be double or triple stacking Mahomes.
Smith-Schuster’s snaps were surprisingly limited in his return from a concussion last week. That’s seemingly lowered his projected ownership, which sits at 6%. Expect JuJu back in a full-time role on Sunday. And remember that he scored 25, 28 and 19 DK points in his last 3 full games.
Moore hasn’t yet earned a full-time role in this offense. But that hasn’t stopped him from catching 5 balls on 6 targets in 2 straight. If we can get that – and tack on a TD – Moore will deliver enough to win a tournament.
Justin Herbert ($7,200) + Keenan Allen ($6,500) + Josh Palmer ($5,600) and/or DeAndre Carter ($3,900)
We’ve been attacking this Raiders pass defense for a while now. No reason to stop with Herbert, who’s coming off a season-high 28.8 DK points.
It’s not a coincidence that Herbert’s production has spiked as the Chargers’ offense has gotten healthier. WR Mike Williams remains out, but Allen was back to full playing time last week, alongside RB Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett and Palmer.
That aforementioned Raiders pass defense ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA for the season and 31st over the last 5 weeks. Vegas sits 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 24th vs. WRs.
RB Josh Jacobs ($7,900) and WR Davante Adams ($8,700) are both awesome runbacks on Herbert teams. Jacobs has 4 games of 30+ DK points this season, including last week’s 51.3-point monster. Adams has topped 30 points 5 times.
Also consider: Trevor Lawrence ($5,900) + Christian Kirk ($6,300) + Evan Engram ($3,000), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700) + Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100) + George Kittle ($5,000)
Nick Chubb, Browns ($8,000)
The Texans’ run defense has been getting shredded all season. They’ve allowed 145 RB rushing yards per game – 12 more than any other team – on 5.2 yards per carry. Five different RBs have topped 30 DK points vs. Houston.
Chubb obviously has the talent to be the 6th. And his price tag – plus the return of QB Deshaun Watson – has Chubb flying under the radar. He’s projected for just 9% ownership.
Aaron Jones, Packers ($6,900)
I highlighted Jones in the cash-game article. He gets a Bears run defense that challenges Houston’s for worst in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per carry to RBs on the season and 5.2 over the past 5 weeks.
Jones has shown tournament-winning upside throughout his career and has 3 outings of 26+ DK points this season.
He’s projected for a very reasonable 13% ownership rate.
Zonovan Knight, Jets ($4,600)
Finding cheap plays figures to be important on this slate, which has tons of high-priced guys capable of massive outings. Knight is 1 of my favorites.
The rookie was clearly a part of New York’s game plan last week, mixing in alongside Michael Carter even before Carter went down. With Carter out for Sunday’s game vs. the Vikings, I expect Knight to operate as New York’s lead back, ahead of change-of-pace Ty Johnson and James Robinson, who was a healthy scratch last week.
Knight averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 14 totes last week and also caught all 3 of his targets for 34 yards. He was a capable pass-catcher at North Carolina State, totaling 48 receptions across 3 seasons and 41 over his final 2.
Also consider: Josh Jacobs ($7,900), Dalvin Cook ($7,200), Ken Walker ($7,000), A.J. Dillon ($5,600), Kareem Hunt ($4,800)
A.J. Brown, Eagles ($7,800)
I typically don’t buy into the “revenge game” narrative – but there might be something to it here. Brown clearly wasn’t happy with the Titans on his way out of town. And BFF Jalen Hurts might just be willing to feed him against his former employer.
Beyond the narrative, the matchup looks excellent for Brown. Tennessee is a pass-funnel defense, ranking 1st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA but just 17th against the pass. Offenses tend to lean pass against the Titans – which we’ve seen the Eagles do at times this season.
The Titans rank 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. And they particularly struggle defending deep balls, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders DVOA against deep passes. Brown leads the Eagles with 12 deep targets this season.
Christian Watson, Packers ($5,200)
I’m surprised Watson is coming in at just 8% projected ownership this week considering he has *double checks notes* 6 freakin’ TD over his last 3 games.
Yes, I expect a run-heavy game plan from Green Bay on Sunday. And yes, Watson’s QB will be playing through thumb and rib injuries.
But the rookie clearly has the ability to produce a tournament-winning score on just a handful of targets. And Chicago’s defense is just as bad against the pass as the run. The Bears rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over the last 5 weeks, coughing up 9.4 yards per pass attempt during that stretch.
Also consider: Davante Adams ($8,700), D.K. Metcalf ($6,700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,700), Josh Palmer ($5,600), Nico Collins ($4,200), DeAndre Carter ($3,900), Skyy Moore ($3,100)
This is the 1st main slate in a while with Travis Kelce ($7,900), Mark Andrews ($6,600) and George Kittle ($5,000). What are the odds none of those guys produce the score you need to have to win GPPs? I think it’s slim, so I’ll be working to get 1 of those elites onto every tournament team I make.
Kittle is my favorite. At $5,000, he’s the cheapest he’s been all year. And he’s projected for just 4% ownership.
I guess that’s because he’s dudded in 2 of his last 3. But Kittle has been a volatile producer throughout his career. And it’s not like we haven’t seen a ceiling from him this season. He’s topped 21 DK points in 2 of his last 5 games.
Sunday’s matchup vs. Miami is one that should find Kittle featured. The Dolphins are tougher against WRs than TEs both by Football Outsiders DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Fins rank 29th vs. TEs in both of those metrics.
Also consider: Pat Freiermuth ($4,300), Hayden Hurst ($3,500), Evan Engram ($3,000)