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Week 13 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola | Updated on Sat, 02 Dec 2023 . 11:12 PM EST

Stacks

Dolphins at Commanders

I’ll be stacking this game – through both Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) and Sam Howell ($6,200) – on most, if not all, of my tournament teams this week.

Dream matchup for Dolphins

The Dolphins side doesn’t need much explaining. We get the league’s most explosive passing game against a Washington defense that ranks:

  • 32nd in pass yards allowed
  • 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed
  • 32nd in pass TDs allowed
  • 32nd in pass defense DVOA

Tagovailoa has faced two other bottom-6 teams in pass defense DVOA this season. He scored 32.1 and 31.3 DraftKings points in those games.

It’s a particularly good matchup for Miami’s speedy WRs because the Commanders have allowed the most completions of 15+ yards.

It’s the salaries on Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill ($9,600), and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) that make this stack tricky. But there are enough viable cheap plays this week (including on the Commanders) to make it work.

In fact, it’s even doable to play Tua with both of his WRs.

How to play the Commanders stack

The Commanders stack is about volume and value.

Howell has attempted 53 more passes than anyone else this season and should be busy again on Sunday with his Commanders 9.5-point underdogs.

That volume has helped Howell average 20.6 DraftKings points per game – fourth most among main-slate QBs.

And he’s displayed a ceiling with outings of 29.4, 35.0, and 28.2 DK points.

All of Howell’s primary pass catchers are relatively cheap. The tricky part is figuring out who to use between Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas.

I looked at how many times those guys returned tournament-viable production at their salaries among those three big Howell games.

  • McLaurin 0 of 3
  • Dotson 1 of 3
  • Samuel 1 of 2 (left the other game with an injury)
  • Thomas 2 of 3

I’ll be focusing on Samuel and Thomas on my Howell teams.

On top of their production in Howell’s big games, Samuel and Thomas match up well against a Dolphins pass defense that’s weaker over the middle of the field than on the outside.

Also consider:

  • Brock Purdy ($6,100) + Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200)

 

Running Backs

Devin Singletary, Texans ($5,900)

This is a bit further off the board than I usually go at RB. But on a slate where it’s challenging to get contrarian, 3% owned Singletary is a nice option.

He got stealth workhorse usage last week. The box score shows that Singletary out-carried RB Dameon Pierce just six to five. But Singletary played a whopping 82% of Houston’s offensive snaps. He also set season highs with a 74% route rate and 19% target share.

If Singletary gets similar playing time this weekend, 15+ carries are well within reach. Especially in this matchup.

The Broncos are much-improved against the pass vs. early in the season. But they’ve remained leaky against the run. Denver has coughed up 6.0 yards per carry to RBs over the past five weeks.

Don’t be surprised if the Texans skew toward the run game in this spot, with Singletary a focal point.

He posted games of 26.1 and 22.8 DraftKings points in his two games prior to last week.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers ($5,400)

Najee Harris, Steelers ($5,200)

We were on these guys last week and are going right back to the well.

Warren is coming off one of his worst games of the season, losing a fumble and scoring just 8.2 DK points. But he tallied 22.0 and 26.5 points in his previous two outings and brings upside thanks to his pass-catching role and big-play ability.

Harris delivered 15.9 DK points at $4,900 last week – despite missing the 100-yard bonus by a yard. He’s dominating goal-line work for Pittsburgh and has scored in three of his last four games.

The Steelers RBs are in just as good a spot this week as last. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite for an Arizona defense that just got oblierated by Kyren Williams. On the season, the Cardinals rank 30th in run defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,700)
  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,700)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($6,000)
  • Zack Moss, Colts ($4,600)

 

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,200)

It’s not comfortable spending $7,200 for a WR who’s topped six targets just once in his last five games.

But we should get elevated passing volume from the 49ers on Sunday against a pass-funnel Eagles squad that ranks fourth in run defense DVOA but 21st in pass defense.

And Aiyuk should continue winning on efficiency, as he’s done all season with a 69% catch rate and 19.6 yards per catch. 

The Eagles rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have been especially flammable vs. outside WRs, allowing the most fantasy points per game. Aiyuk has played 83% of his snaps on the outside this year.

Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($3,700)

A popular Dortch underwhelmed with 11.7 DraftKings points last week.

But he got the usage we were looking for, running a route on 78% of Cardinals pass plays and drawing nine targets for a 20% share.

Yet Dortch is projected for just 5% ownership this week.

Dortch has now registered a 75+% snap rate in seven career games. His averages in those games:

  • 9.6 targets
  • 6.9 catches
  • 66.0 yards

That’s 13.5 DK points – before we even talk about TDs.

Dortch is a strong bet to play 75+% of Arizona’s snaps in Pittsburgh this weekend with WR Michael Wilson out and WR Marquise Brown questionable with a heel injury.

Also consider:

  • Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,600)
  • Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($7,600)
  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($7,100)
  • Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,200)
  • Josh Downs, Colts ($5,100)
  • Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($4,100)
  • Jalen Guyton, Chargers ($3,300)

 

Tight End

Taysom Hill, Saints ($5,200)

Michael Thomas is on IR.

Rashid Shaheed is out this week with his thigh injury.

Chris Olave is questionable with his concussion.

It’d sure make sense for the Saints to make Hill a big part of the offense on Sunday – in both the run and pass games – against a struggling Lions defense that’s allowed 26+ points in four of the last five games.

Hill, who has games of 22.5 and 20.6 DraftKings points this season, stands with George Kittle as the highest-upside TEs on the main slate. And Hill is $1,000 cheaper than Kittle.

Brevin Jordan, Texans ($2,500)

TE Dalton Schultz’s absence leaves Houston with Jordan and Eric Saubert at TE.

Jordan ran 19 routes to Saubert’s two last week and is the clear favorite to replace Schultz as the lead pass-catching TE.

Jordan tallied 1,358 receiving yards on a strong 12.9 yards per catch across three seasons at Miami. He’s yet to carve out a consistent role as a pro but at least has theoretical pass-catching upside.

Mostly, though, we’re playing “C.J. Stroud’s TE” against the Broncos 27th-ranked TE defense at $2,500.

Also consider: 

  • Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,600)
  • Juwan Johnson, Saints ($3,400)
  • Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,100)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Dolphins ($3,900)

Steelers ($3,800)

Falcons ($3,400)

Browns ($3,100)

49ers ($3,000)

Titans ($2,800)

 

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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