Show Navigation
Show Menu

Week 13 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 10:12pm EST 12/2/23

Stacks

Dolphins at Commanders

I’ll be stacking this game – through both Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900) and Sam Howell ($6,200) – on most, if not all, of my tournament teams this week.

Dream matchup for Dolphins

The Dolphins side doesn’t need much explaining. We get the league’s most explosive passing game against a Washington defense that ranks:

  • 32nd in pass yards allowed
  • 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed
  • 32nd in pass TDs allowed
  • 32nd in pass defense DVOA

Tagovailoa has faced two other bottom-6 teams in pass defense DVOA this season. He scored 32.1 and 31.3 DraftKings points in those games.

It’s a particularly good matchup for Miami’s speedy WRs because the Commanders have allowed the most completions of 15+ yards.

It’s the salaries on Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill ($9,600), and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) that make this stack tricky. But there are enough viable cheap plays this week (including on the Commanders) to make it work.

In fact, it’s even doable to play Tua with both of his WRs.

How to play the Commanders stack

The Commanders stack is about volume and value.

Howell has attempted 53 more passes than anyone else this season and should be busy again on Sunday with his Commanders 9.5-point underdogs.

That volume has helped Howell average 20.6 DraftKings points per game – fourth most among main-slate QBs.

And he’s displayed a ceiling with outings of 29.4, 35.0, and 28.2 DK points.

All of Howell’s primary pass catchers are relatively cheap. The tricky part is figuring out who to use between Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas.

I looked at how many times those guys returned tournament-viable production at their salaries among those three big Howell games.

  • McLaurin 0 of 3
  • Dotson 1 of 3
  • Samuel 1 of 2 (left the other game with an injury)
  • Thomas 2 of 3

I’ll be focusing on Samuel and Thomas on my Howell teams.

On top of their production in Howell’s big games, Samuel and Thomas match up well against a Dolphins pass defense that’s weaker over the middle of the field than on the outside.

Also consider:

  • Brock Purdy ($6,100) + Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200)

 

Running Backs

Devin Singletary, Texans ($5,900)

This is a bit further off the board than I usually go at RB. But on a slate where it’s challenging to get contrarian, 3% owned Singletary is a nice option.

He got stealth workhorse usage last week. The box score shows that Singletary out-carried RB Dameon Pierce just six to five. But Singletary played a whopping 82% of Houston’s offensive snaps. He also set season highs with a 74% route rate and 19% target share.

If Singletary gets similar playing time this weekend, 15+ carries are well within reach. Especially in this matchup.

The Broncos are much-improved against the pass vs. early in the season. But they’ve remained leaky against the run. Denver has coughed up 6.0 yards per carry to RBs over the past five weeks.

Don’t be surprised if the Texans skew toward the run game in this spot, with Singletary a focal point.

He posted games of 26.1 and 22.8 DraftKings points in his two games prior to last week.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers ($5,400)

Najee Harris, Steelers ($5,200)

We were on these guys last week and are going right back to the well.

Warren is coming off one of his worst games of the season, losing a fumble and scoring just 8.2 DK points. But he tallied 22.0 and 26.5 points in his previous two outings and brings upside thanks to his pass-catching role and big-play ability.

Harris delivered 15.9 DK points at $4,900 last week – despite missing the 100-yard bonus by a yard. He’s dominating goal-line work for Pittsburgh and has scored in three of his last four games.

The Steelers RBs are in just as good a spot this week as last. Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point home favorite for an Arizona defense that just got oblierated by Kyren Williams. On the season, the Cardinals rank 30th in run defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,700)
  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,700)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($6,000)
  • Zack Moss, Colts ($4,600)

 

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,200)

It’s not comfortable spending $7,200 for a WR who’s topped six targets just once in his last five games.

But we should get elevated passing volume from the 49ers on Sunday against a pass-funnel Eagles squad that ranks fourth in run defense DVOA but 21st in pass defense.

And Aiyuk should continue winning on efficiency, as he’s done all season with a 69% catch rate and 19.6 yards per catch. 

The Eagles rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have been especially flammable vs. outside WRs, allowing the most fantasy points per game. Aiyuk has played 83% of his snaps on the outside this year.

Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($3,700)

A popular Dortch underwhelmed with 11.7 DraftKings points last week.

But he got the usage we were looking for, running a route on 78% of Cardinals pass plays and drawing nine targets for a 20% share.

Yet Dortch is projected for just 5% ownership this week.

Dortch has now registered a 75+% snap rate in seven career games. His averages in those games:

  • 9.6 targets
  • 6.9 catches
  • 66.0 yards

That’s 13.5 DK points – before we even talk about TDs.

Dortch is a strong bet to play 75+% of Arizona’s snaps in Pittsburgh this weekend with WR Michael Wilson out and WR Marquise Brown questionable with a heel injury.

Also consider:

  • Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,600)
  • Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($7,600)
  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($7,100)
  • Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,200)
  • Josh Downs, Colts ($5,100)
  • Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($4,100)
  • Jalen Guyton, Chargers ($3,300)

 

Tight End

Taysom Hill, Saints ($5,200)

Michael Thomas is on IR.

Rashid Shaheed is out this week with his thigh injury.

Chris Olave is questionable with his concussion.

It’d sure make sense for the Saints to make Hill a big part of the offense on Sunday – in both the run and pass games – against a struggling Lions defense that’s allowed 26+ points in four of the last five games.

Hill, who has games of 22.5 and 20.6 DraftKings points this season, stands with George Kittle as the highest-upside TEs on the main slate. And Hill is $1,000 cheaper than Kittle.

Brevin Jordan, Texans ($2,500)

TE Dalton Schultz’s absence leaves Houston with Jordan and Eric Saubert at TE.

Jordan ran 19 routes to Saubert’s two last week and is the clear favorite to replace Schultz as the lead pass-catching TE.

Jordan tallied 1,358 receiving yards on a strong 12.9 yards per catch across three seasons at Miami. He’s yet to carve out a consistent role as a pro but at least has theoretical pass-catching upside.

Mostly, though, we’re playing “C.J. Stroud’s TE” against the Broncos 27th-ranked TE defense at $2,500.

Also consider: 

  • Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,600)
  • Juwan Johnson, Saints ($3,400)
  • Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,100)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Dolphins ($3,900)

Steelers ($3,800)

Falcons ($3,400)

Browns ($3,100)

49ers ($3,000)

Titans ($2,800)

 

Related Fantasy Football

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

NFL DFS: Wildcard Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

3:13pm EST 1/11/24

Six games ... and a lot of difficult decisions. Let's run through an exciting DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings ahead of Wild Card Weekend.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

12:33pm EST 1/7/24

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 18 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:01pm EST 1/6/24

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 18 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Tournament Picks

9:22am EST 1/6/24

Week 18 is always tough to predict, but there are still edges to be found. See where to turn in Week 18 FanDuel tournaments.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

Week 18 FanDuel Cash-Game Picks

5:04pm EST 1/5/24

With many key players resting, Week 18 FanDuel cash games figure to be the wild west. Let's see who's set to deliver DFS value.

Read More »
Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

10:45pm EST 12/30/23

Top DraftKings picks at every position for Week 17 head-to-head and 50/50 contests.

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentWeek 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

10:41pm EST 12/30/23

Top stacks and positional targets for Week 17 DraftKings tournaments.

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?
Check out thisleague-winning info
2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play