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Week 15 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 10:23pm EST 12/17/22

Stacks

Justin Herbert ($7,200) + Mike Williams ($6,300) + Gerald Everett ($4,300)

There’s no mystery about how the Chargers will attack the Titans defense this weekend. Los Angeles ranks 4th in Pass Rate Over Expected; Tennessee ranks 1st in Pass Rate Over Expected Against. Herbert ranks 2nd league-wide with 43.2 pass attempts per game this season and is a solid bet to top that number on Sunday.

And he should be efficient. The Titans rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA on the season, 30th over the last 5 weeks and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

The matchup looks particularly good for Williams. The Titans sit 32nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs in general and 31st against outside receivers. Plus, Football Outsiders ranks Tennessee dead last defending deep passes. Williams has played 86% of his snaps on the outside this season and leads the Chargers with a 12.0-yard average depth of target.

WRs Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer are fine stacking options – but I prefer Everett. We just saw the Jaguars prioritize TE Evan Engram in the game plan vs. Tennessee, resulting in a huge 11-162-2 line. It’s possible the Chargers follow suit. Everett has already tallied 4-5 catches in 6 straight healthy games.

RB Derrick Henry ($8,000) is a high-end runback vs. the Chargers’ run-funnel defense. If you wanna go cheaper, consider TE Chig Okonkwo ($3,100).

Dak Prescott ($6,200) + CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) + Michael Gallup ($4,500) or Dalton Schultz ($4,400)

Prescott has been more floor than ceiling play lately. He hasn’t topped 21.2 DK points in any of his last 5 games.

He’s playing well, though, completing 67% of his passes and averaging 7.4 yards per attempt over that span. It’s mostly been a volume problem, with Prescott failing to top 30 passes in 3 of those last 5.

I like his chances for elevated volume this weekend. The Jaguars haven’t been stopping anything lately, but they’ve been particularly bad against the pass. Over their last 4 games, they’ve coughed up an average of 295 passing yards and 2.3 TDs on 8.1 yards per attempt. Jacksonville ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA over that span.

So Dallas could decide to attack via the air in this one. There’s also some shootout potential with QB Trevor Lawrence playing so well lately.

Lamb remains the top dog and highest upside play among the pass catchers. He’s totaled 29 targets on a 23% share over the past 4 weeks. He’s topped 20 DK points in 2 of those 4 outings and 5 times total this season. Jacksonville has been particularly bad against slot receivers, ranking 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Lamb has played 48% of his snaps in the slot this season.

Gallup and Schultz are both solid standalone values, so I like double stacking Prescott. The Jags rank 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

RBs

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($6,800)

I’m frankly disappointed to see Kamara projected for 18.0% ownership. I thought he’d fly under the radar – because he hasn’t been productive lately, failing to 12.9 DK points in any of his last 5.

It’s not enough to get me off him, though, in a prime bounce-back spot.

The matchup is favorable vs. the Falcons, who rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

RB Mark Ingram is out, which matters. Per 4for4’s John Daigle, Kamara has handled 85% of Saints backfield touches in 4 games with Ingram inactive or injured this season vs. 71% in his other 7 games.

The Saints are also getting starting C Erik McCoy back from a 4-game absence.

Miles Sanders, Eagles ($6,500)

Sanders has been in plus matchups in 2 of his last 3 games. He’s come away from those matchups with 34.0 and 31.5 DK points.

He gets another blowup spot on Sunday vs. the Bears, who rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

The Eagles are 8.5-point favorites with a 28.5-point implied total.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($5,900)

Jerick McKinnon had the big game last week, but Pacheco tallied another 13 carries (and even saw 3 targets). He’s averaging 16.0 carries over his last 5 games.

Pacheco has a good shot to top that number on Sunday with his Chiefs massive 14.5-point favorites vs. the Texans. The last non-competitive game the Chiefs were in, Pacheco racked up 22 carries against the Rams.

And he’s clearly a good TD bet, with Kansas City sporting a 32.0-point implied total. Pacheco has carried 10 times inside the opponent’s 10-yard line over the last 5 weeks.

Also consider: Derrick Henry ($8,000), Tony Pollard ($7,100), James Conner ($6,900), Travis Etienne ($6,000), D’Andre Swift ($5,700)

WRs

Mike Evans, Bucs ($6,200)

Evans has been snake-bitten all season. He’s dropped some crucial passes and also had big plays called back by penalty. In fact, Evans has lost a league-high 43.6 fantasy points to penalties this season, per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett.

Don’t be surprised if all that swings back in his favor in 1 of these final few games. And, although it’s been a while, Evans has still showcased big upside this season. He dropped 33.3 DK points on the Chiefs back in Week 4.

Evans gets a Bengals pass defense on Sunday that’s slumped since losing top CB Chidobe Awuzie in Week 8.

I like the idea of mini-stacking Evans with Ja’Marr Chase.

Jakobi Meyers, Patriots ($4,700)

This was gonna be Tyquan Thornton, who replaced Meyers as New England’s primary slot receiver last week. But we learned on Saturday afternoon that Meyers is expected back from his concussion.

He’s not as strong a play as minimum-priced Thornton would have been. Although Meyers, of course, is more proven than the rookie.

Regardless, we want to attack the Raiders defense in the slot, where they rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Meyers has played 60% of his snaps in the slot this season.

Also consider: Davante Adams ($9,000), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300), CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), Mike Williams ($6,300), Garrett Wilson ($6,000), Michael Gallup ($4,500), Elijah Moore ($3,600), Nelson Agholor ($3,400)

TEs

Greg Dulcich, Broncos ($3,600)

Dulcich disappointed as chalk last week. Now he’s coming in at about half the projected ownership (11%), despite being in a better spot.

Denver will again be without WR Courtland Sutton on Sunday. And they’ll also be without WR Kendall Hinton. So Dulcich, who’s seen 8 targets in back-to-back games, is a strong volume bet.

He draws a Cardinals defense that sits 30th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($3,100)

Okonkwo delivered for us last week, and we’re going right back to the well.

The rookie has now tallied 5, 5 and 6 targets in his last 3 outings. He should again be a significant part of the passing game with WR Treylon Burks still out with his concussion.

Okonkwo gets a Chargers defense on Sunday that sits 24th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rakings and will be without stud S Derwin James.

Remember, too, that Okonwko is rockin’ a 15.2 yards-per-catch average on an 8.3-yard average depth of target, so he brings more big-play potential than most TEs.

Also consider: Travis Kelce ($7,800), Dalton Schultz ($4,400), Gerald Everett ($4,300)

DSTs

Panthers ($3,300)
Steelers ($3,100)
Lions ($3,000)
Patriots ($2,800)
Broncos ($2,700)
Bucs ($2,600)
Titans ($2,200)

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