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Week 17 FanDuel Tournament Picks

By Kevin English 10:46am EST 12/30/23

NFL DFS Picks for Tournament and GPP Play

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($8,000) vs. Bengals

Ownership projection: 7%

You can assign blame to Mahomes, HC Andy Reid, and/or a lackluster supporting cast for the Chiefs’ recent struggles. But I don’t think you can deny the upside that remains here, particularly against the Bengals’ pass D.

Over the past two weeks, they’ve surrendered 290-2 to Mason Rudolph (on 27 attempts) and 303-2 to Nick Mullens (33 attempts).

If I'm picking a stack here, it's with Rashee Rice. He's projected for only 13% ownership at $7.4K.

Also consider: Baker Mayfield

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,000) at Texans

Ownership projection: 2%

Houston limited Henry to just 9 yards on 16 carries in Week 15. So I get any hesitation you might feel...

This time, though, the Texans defense will juggle some key injuries along the defensive front.

Projected for low ownership, Henry remains a decent TD bet with 11 for the season. That includes seven over his past five games.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($7,600) vs. Cardinals

Ownership projection: 15%

Swift has encountered some bad TD luck. He’s been stopped at the 1-yard line six times this season, leading him to underperform his expected rushing TDs by 3.1 (per Pro Football Focus).

TD upside will remain against an Arizona unit slotted 31st in rush-defense DVOA. Philly’s implied point total (30) also ranks second on the main slate.

Also consider: Bijan Robinson, Devin Singletary, Gus Edwards, Zamir White

Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,500) at Washington

Ownership projection: 11%

At least one of Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle is a virtual lock to outperform his FD salary.

Given the weakness of Washington’s pass D, it’s quite possible that all three guys deliver.

If I’m zeroing in on one, though, it’s Aiyuk. He’s $1,300 cheaper than Samuel and ranks as the WR5 in ceiling projection. Mix in the reasonable ownership projection, and Aiyuk looks like one of the best plays on this slate.

Chris Olave, Saints ($7,400) at Buccaneers

Ownership projection: 9%

The Bucs sit 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They’ll be without CB Carlton Davis (concussion) for Sunday’s game.

Olave remained limited in practice this week with an ankle issue, but he doesn’t have an official injury designation ahead of Sunday.

The Saints' No. 1 WR has hit 8 targets in eight of his past nine games.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($6,200) vs. Chargers

Ownership projection: 7%

It’s impossible to feel confident in Jeudy, who hasn’t cracked 12 FD points all year.

But I think there’s enough different about the Week 17 environment to forecast a higher ceiling for the disappointing WR.

For starters, Courtland Sutton has been ruled out (concussion). He leaves roughly 6 targets per game.

Marvin Mims also looks questionable to play after going limited Thursday and then not practicing Friday. 

Then, there’s the benching of Russell Wilson.

No statistical argument says that new QB Jarrett Stidham supplies an upgrade. But between the matchup (Chargers sit 29th in pass-defense DVOA) and the available targets, I think there’s a scenario in which Stidham does enough to revive Jeudy’s value.

Brandon Johnson -- only $4,700 -- is another Bronco to keep in mind, especially if Marvin Mims sits.

(Note: Jeudy missed practice on Friday with an illness. He’s officially listed as questionable, but we expect him to suit up.)

Also consider: Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Rashod Bateman (if Zay Flowers sits)

Tight End 

Isaiah Likely, Ravens ($6,000) vs. Dolphins

Ownership projection: 5%

In four games without Mark Andrews, Likely has posted route rates of 93.8%, 98%, 100%, and 91.9%. That’s allowed him to hit 55+ yards in three of those games and score in two. 

Sunday’s setup looks favorable for the second-year pro. Zay Flowers, while expected to play, is officially questionable after missing two practices (calf). 

A road Dolphins squad down Jaylen Waddle might not deliver a back-and-forth shootout. But note that Baltimore’s implied for 25.25 points, tied for fourth-highest on the main slate. 

Also consider: Trey McBride

Defense 

Colts ($4,000) vs. Raiders

Ownership projection: 5%

Also consider: Panthers

 

More DFS Intel for Week 17

Join Matt Schauf and Jared Smola for a rundown of the Week 17 slate on FanDuel and DraftKings.

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