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Week 18 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 8:49pm EST 1/7/23


Stacks

Joe Burrow ($7,300) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400) or Tee Higgins ($7,600) + Hayden Hurst ($3,100)

Burrow has scored 28.5+ DK points in 5 games this season, with 3 of those coming in his last 6 outings. He struggled in his Week 5 meeting with the Ravens but roasted them for 416-3-1 and 525-4-0 passing lines last year.

Baltimore rolls into this one sitting 7th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings over the last 5 weeks but 27th against the pass. So expect a pass-heavy attack from Cincinnati.

Stack Burrow with 1 of his stud WRs plus Hurst – a strong standalone value at TE who went for 17.3 DK points vs. the Ravens back in Week 5.

Brock Purdy ($5,700) + George Kittle ($6,000)

Purdy has tossed 2 TDs in each of the last 5 games. He’s topped out at 21.7 DK points – but he at least has 25-point upside in Sunday’s plus matchup against a banged-up Cardinals defense with nothing to play for. San Francisco’s 27.0-point implied total is 2nd highest on the main slate.

25 DK points from a $5,700 QB might be enough this week, with Jalen Hurts coming off injury, Josh Allen facing a capable Patriots defense and Patrick Mahomes off the main slate.

With TE Travis Kelce also off the main slate, Kittle has the highest ceiling at the position – especially in this matchup. The Cardinals rank 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and 29th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings. Kittle smoked them for 84 yards and 2 scores back in Week 11.

Also consider: Josh Allen ($8,400) + Stefon Diggs ($7,900) + Dawson Knox ($4,200), Dak Prescott ($6,600) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,200) + Dalton Schultz ($4,500)


RBs

Ken Walker, Seahawks ($6,400)

The Seahawks have fed Walker 26 and 23 carries the past 2 weeks. With their season on the line, expect another big workload for the rookie on Sunday.

Walker gets a Rams defense that’ll again be without stud DL Aaron Donald. With Donald out the past 5 weeks, the Rams rank 26th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have coughed up 4.7 yards per carry to RBs.

Walker hasn’t had a big game in a while but does have 2 outings of 30+ DK points this season.

Miles Sanders, Eagles ($5,900)

Sanders has scored 7.1 or fewer DK points in 3 straight – which is great. It’ll keep his ownership down in this week’s pristine spot.

Sanders gets a Giants defense that sits 31st in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings over the last 5 weeks, surrendering 5.4 yards per carry to RBs. Even better: the Giants will be without DL Leonard Williams and might rest other starters in a game that means nothing to them.

Sanders ran for 144 yards and 2 TDs against the Giants back in Week 14 – 1 of his 3 games this season with 31+ DK points.

Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), Cam Akers ($6,200), Najee Harris ($6,100), Tyler Allgeier ($5,600), Jonathan Williams ($4,300)


WRs

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,700)

Metcalf is coming off a 1.3-point dud vs. a tough Jets secondary, which should keep his ownership in check this week (projected at 10%).

He’d averaged 17.6 points on 9.5 targets over his previous 8 games, though – a stretch that included a big 29.7-pointer vs. the Rams

Metcalf is a strong target bet in Sunday’s rematch, especially with WR Tyler Lockett dealing with shin and finger injuries.

Garrett Wilson, Seahawks ($5,800)

Wilson dudded with a 3-11 line against a tough Seahawks WR defense last week. But he saw another 11 targets, giving him 10.2 per game over his last 5.

Joe Flacco will be back under center for the Jets this weekend – which should at least be an upgrade over the banged-up version of Mike White we saw last week.

Wilson posted the following lines in Flacco's 3 starts to open the season:

4-52-0 (8 targets)

8-102-2 (14 targets)

6-60-0 (11 targets)

Wilson drew 21% of Jets targets across those 3 games, despite running a route on just 64% of pass plays. He’s been at 90+% of the routes in each of his last 9 games.

Chris Olave ($6,200) and Rashid Shaheed ($4,200), WRs, Saints

Our cover boy for this article last week, Mike Evans, exploded for 51.7 DK points vs. the Panthers. Now Olave and Shaheed get their crack at this defense that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and will again be without CB Jaycee Horn.

Shaheed is the better value play among the 2. He’s out-targeted Olave 10 to 9 over their last 2 games together and has 75+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games.

Olave remains the bigger talent, though, with the higher fantasy ceiling. He’s also projected for slightly less ownership than Shaheed (10% vs. 12%).

Also consider: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400), Drake London ($4,900), Courtland Sutton ($4,800)


TEs

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,900)

Goedert has been quiet in the box score in his 2 games back from that shoulder injury. But the usage has been elite: 89% and 97% route rates.

Goedert is sitting on a big game – and it could come on Sunday vs. a Giants defense that ranks 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and dead last in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings.

David Njoku, Browns ($3,900)

There are quite a few viable TEs in the $3Ks this week. None have Njoku’s big-play ability or fantasy upside.

He has games of 18.7 and 23.9 DK points this season. The 18.7-pointer came in his first game with QB Deshaun Watson; the 23.9-pointer came vs. the Steelers, who Njoku gets again on Sunday.

Also consider: George Kittle ($6,000), Tyler Conklin ($3,600), Hunter Henry ($3,300), Jelani Woods ($2,900), Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,900)


DSTs

Vikings ($2,900)
Jets ($2,600)
Falcons ($2,400)
Patriots ($2,200)

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