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Week 4 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 11:15am EDT 10/1/21


QBs

Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,700)

Patrick Mahomes ($8,100) actually checks in as the top dollars-per-point value at QB. But with no standout cheap plays at RB or WR, it makes sense to save the $1,400 on Prescott.

The Cowboys have notably gone run-heavy the past 2 games, ranking 27th in situation-neutral pass rate in Week 2 and 31st last week. I’m not ready to call that a trend yet, though. And Prescott scored 21.1 DK points last week, despite low passing volume. He’s playing excellent ball.

This matchup will be a challenge vs. a Panthers squad sitting 1st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings and 4th in DK points allowed to QBs. But Carolina just lost 1st-round rookie CB Jaycee Horn. And Dallas’ 27.75-point implied total is 4th highest on the main slate.


RBs

Derrick Henry, Titans ($8,800)

Henry leads the league with 80 carries through 3 games. Now his Titans are 6.5-point favorites vs. a struggling Jets squad. And Tennessee will likely be missing its top 2 WRs.

Translation: Expect a TON of work for Henry.

That even includes passing-game work. Henry is already up to 13 targets and 12 catches -- both top 16 marks among RBs.

D’Andre Swift, Lions ($6,200)

Swift remains too cheap for the sweet, sweet PPR usage he’s getting. Swift ranks 2nd among RBs in both targets (23) and catches (19). He sits 4th at the position in both expected fantasy points and actual PPR points.

Swift is priced as the RB13 on DraftKings this week.

The Bears aren’t a matchup to fear. Football Outsiders ranks them 17th in run defense and 23rd in RB coverage.

David Montgomery, Bears ($5,800)

It hasn’t translated to big fantasy numbers, but Montgomery has gotten awesome usage the past 2 weeks. He’s played 81% of Chicago’s offensive snaps, run a route on 68% of pass plays, handled 30 of 32 RB carries (94%) and tallied 8 targets (18% share).

Montgomery obviously needs the Bears offense to be better than the catastrophe that was Week 3. But a home game vs. a leaky Lions defense will definitely help. Detroit ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, 26th in run defense DVOA and 24th in DK points allowed to RBs.


WRs

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($6,700)

Lamb is coming off a 3-target Week 3 in a game in which QB Dak Prescott threw it just 26 times.

Remember, though, that Lamb racked up 24 targets over the first 2 weeks of the season. He still ranks 12th among WRs in expected fantasy points and 16th in actual fantasy points.

The Panthers sit 8th in DK points allowed to WRs so far but just lost 1st-round rookie CB Jaycee Horn.

D.J. Moore, Panthers ($6,600)

Moore has emerged as the alpha in Carolina’s passing game. His 31 targets are a big 29% share and rank 6th among all WRs. Moore sits 13th at the position in air yards, 11th in expected fantasy points and 9th in actual fantasy points.

He figures to see a bunch of Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, who is emerging as 1 of the game’s best cover guys. But Moore should win his fair share of that battle. And he’s simply too cheap for the usage he’s been getting.

Odell Beckham, Browns ($5,800)

Risky to play a guy in just his 2nd game back from a torn ACL? I don’t think so -- especially at this price.

In Beckham’s return last week, he ran a route on 85% of pass plays and hogged 29% of Cleveland’s targets. He turned those 9 looks into a 5-77 line. OBJ even added 10 rushing yards.

He should see a huge share of targets again this weekend with WR Jarvis Landry still out. And the matchup is excellent vs. a struggling Vikings pass defense. Only 3 teams have allowed more DK points to WRs.


TEs

Evan Engram, Giants ($3,000)

This is the spot to save money this week.

Engram ran a route on 67% of pass plays and saw a 17% target share in his 2021 debut last week. He’s not even listed on the Week 4 injury report.

Meanwhile, WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton look likely to miss Sunday’s game vs. the Saints with their hamstring injuries. That leaves Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson and C.J. Board behind Kenny Golladay on the WR depth chart.

That makes Engram a nice target bet, especially at this price tag.

If you’d rather pay up at TE, Noah Fant ($4,300) and Tyler Higbee ($4,600) are solid values.


DST

Colts ($2,700)

This defense has disappointed in real life so far but has been decent in fantasy, compiling 5 sacks, 6 takeaways and 1 TD through 3 games. The Colts rank 9th among main-slate DSTs in DK points.

They get Dolphins backup QB Jacoby Brissett on Sunday. Brissett has turned it over just once over the past 2 weeks but taken 6 sacks. Miami ranks dead last in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 24th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate.

If you wanna go even cheaper, upside matchups put the Falcons ($2,300) and Lions ($2,200) in play.


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