Week 4 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Josh Allen ($8,400) + Stefon Diggs ($8,400) + Dawson Knox ($3,800)
The first question to answer when building GPP lineups this week is what you’re doing with the Bills-Ravens game. It’s easily the most attractive matchup of the week, sporting a 51-point over/under. But it also figures to carry a bunch of ownership.
I’m gonna take my chances on fading Lamar Jackson because I have a lot of respect for this Bills defense, even with a bunch of injuries.
I can’t say the same for the Ravens defense. Baltimore has coughed up a 67% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt to Joe Flacco, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones over the season’s first 3 weeks. Allen rolls into this one with a 71% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt.
If he puts up 30+ DraftKings points again – like he has in each of his first 3 games – you’ll probably need him to win a tournament, even at high ownership.
One way to differentiate Allen stacks is to use Knox. His usage and production has been disappointing so far. But outside of Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, there’s not another TE on this main slate with a better shot at 2 TDs than Knox.
The Ravens sit 26th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Justin Herbert ($7,100) + Mike Williams ($7,000) + Gerald Everett ($4,000)
The Chargers are coming off a turd last week. And now they’re without stud LT Rashawn Slater. The offense could certainly struggle again this Sunday.
But we don’t care about floor in tournaments. In terms of ceiling, Herbert still rivals the top-end QBs, who are over $1,000 more expensive and will be much higher owned. Herbert had 6 games of 300+ yards and 2+ TDs last year.
Herbert put in full practices on Thursday and Friday this week and isn’t listed on the final injury report. So it looks like that rib cartilage injury will be much less of an issue this weekend than last.
Herbert won’t have WR Keenan Allen on Sunday, but that just means a more condensed target tree.
Williams has been his usual volatile self this year, with 2 games of single-digit DK points but 1 of 28.3. He topped 20 DK points in 3 of Herbert’s 6 games with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs last season.
Everett disappointed in the box score last week but actually set a season high with a 72% route rate. He scored 14.4 and 13.1 DK points in his first 2 outings and is an attractive piece of this stack at $4K.
Also consider: Jalen Hurts ($8,200) + A.J. Brown ($7,400) + Dallas Goedert ($4,500) and Ryan Tannehill ($5,500) + Treylon Burks ($4,700)
I’m playing chalky Jamaal Williams and Khalil Herbert in cash but full-fading them in tournaments. I think there are guys in the same price range with similar ceilings who we’ll get at much lower ownership. But before we get to them, 1 high-end play I love:
Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($8,800)
Taylor has disappointed in the box score so far. But the volume has been there, outside of the blowout loss to Jacksonville. Taylor racked up 38 opportunities in Week 1 and 26 in Week 3.
He’s in a pristine spot this Sunday as a 3.5-point home favorite against Tennessee. The Titans sit 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. They’ve coughed up 6.1 yards per carry to RBs through 3 weeks.
Javonte Williams, Broncos ($6,600)
The Mike Boone usage was annoying last week. We’ll see if that’s the start of a trend or just a 1-game blip.
Williams still tallied 15 carries and 5 targets in that game, though – his 3rd straight game with 19+ opportunities.
I’ll take a shot on a guy this talented getting that kind of volume for $6,600 at 7% projected ownership in a fine matchup vs. the Raiders.
A.J. Dillon, Packers ($6,000)
You couldn’t hand pick a better spot for Dillon than what he gets on Sunday. His Packers are 9-point home favorites with a 24.5-point implied total vs. the Brian Hoyer-led Patriots. If this game goes according to script, there will be plenty of scoring and plenty of running on the Green Bay side. And the Patriots sit 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings.
Dillon hasn’t put up big fantasy numbers the past 2 weeks, but he’s tallied 21 and 15 opportunities in those games. And don’t forget that he went for 20.1 DK points back in Week 1.
Kareem Hunt, Browns ($6,000)
Similar to Dillon, Hunt hasn’t delivered the fantasy points the past 2 weeks. But he saw 15 and 16 opportunities in those games – and racked up 23.0 DK points in the opener.
Browns vs. Falcons looks like a total mismatch on the ground. Cleveland ranks 2nd in Football Outsiders’ rush offense DVOA; Atlanta ranks 27th in rush defense DVOA.
The Browns’ 24.25-point implied total is 6th highest on the main slate.
Davante Adams, Raiders ($8,300)
It was just 2 weeks ago when Adams was 1 of the most popular players on the slate, coming off a 33.1-point opener.
Now he’s $300 cheaper and projected for 15% ownership – about half of what he came in at in Week 2.
Yes, the matchup is tough against CB Patrick Surtain and the Broncos. But we’ve seen Adams beat difficult matchups throughout his career. And the Raiders are sporting a healthy 24-point implied total, so the oddsmakers aren’t too concerned about this Denver defense.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($5,500)
On the other side of that Broncos-Raiders game, Jeudy seems to be flying under the radar after getting hurt in Week 2 and being a bit limited in Week 3.
He’s off this week’s injury report, though, so he should be back to a full-time role. And don’t forget that he put up 23.2 DK points in the opener. His 7 targets in that one matched Courtland Sutton, who’s $900 more expensive and figures to come in with about twice the ownership.
Treylon Burks, Titans ($4,700)
I ended up playing a bunch of Burks last week. It didn’t work out. But I could at least sleep that night by reminding myself that the process was good.
After playing limited snaps the first 2 weeks of the season, Burks led Titans WRs with a 97% route rate in Week 3. If that remains the case going forward, he’ll have some big games. He already showed the ability to earn targets and produce in those first 2 outings, catching 7 of 11 targets for 102 yards.
The Titans get a Colts defense this weekend that’s been good vs. the run but leaky against the pass so far. QB Ryan Tannehill had success against this unit last season, totaling 6 TDs on 7.7 yards per attempt across 2 meetings.
Also consider: Brandin Cooks ($5,800), Garrett Wilson ($5,400), Elijah Moore ($4,800)
Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,500)
I’m gonna keep playing Goedert until either his price or ownership rises. He’s projected for just 6% ownership this week.
This is a talented pass-catcher getting strong usage on 1 of the league’s hottest passing games. We’ve seen A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have massive games. Goedert’s turn is coming.
David Njoku, Browns ($3,800)
Surprised to see Njoku projected for 6% ownership. I guess folks don’t believe he’s capable of having 2 big games in a row.
Even before that huge Week 3, though, Njoku had been posting strong route rates. So that won’t be his last big game of the season.
In fact, he’s plenty capable of turning in another this Sunday vs. a Falcons defense that sits 24th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Also consider: Mark Andrews ($7,100), Darren Waller ($5,600), Robert Tonyan ($3,500)
There’s no big chalk at DST this week, so we can just play our favorite plays that fit inside the salary cap.