Bottom Line

Hurts displayed a high weekly ceiling in 2022. A shoulder injury slowed him late in the year and into the postseason, but he’s back healthy for Year 4, fresh off signing a massive extension.

The return of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert supply Hurts with perhaps the league’s best trio of pass-catchers.

With an ADP around the turn from Round 2 to Round 3, Hurts isn’t a bargain. But he’ll be worth considering in plenty of formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hurts’ breakout season included the QB3 finish in total fantasy points and points per game.
• He finished worse than QB14 only once
• He finished as a top-5 QB in 11 of 15 games.
• Hurts’ worst game (by far) was QB23 vs. the Giants – his return from a Week 15 S/C joint separation (right shoulder).
• Hurts played through the injury in the postseason, but he’s back to 100% for the offseason. He avoided surgery.
• Hurts led the league with 13 QB rushing scores. Nine(!) of them came inside the 5-yard line.
• Among 31 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Hurts ranked:
  • tied for fourth in yards per attempt
  • seventh in adjusted completion rate
  • ninth in average depth of target
  • fourth in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• Good health from WRs DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown provided a lift. Both guys played all 17 games.
• TE Dallas Goedert missed five games with a shoulder injury.
• The Eagles’ O-line ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade; 12th in pass block win rate.

What to Expect in 2023

• Hurts signed a five-year extension in April with nearly $180 million guaranteed.
• Of note, the Eagles lost RB Miles Sanders, G Isaac Seumalo, and OC Shane Steichen this offseason.
• This backfield looks deeper with the arrivals of early-down back Rashaad Penny and receiving back D’Andre Swift. Hurts will remain a prominent figure near the goal line.
• Philly's O-line remains strong with LT Jordan Mailata, LG Landon Dickerson, C Jason Kelce, and RT Lane Johnson. We'll see if rookie Tyler Steen -- or second-year man Cam Jurgens -- wins the RG job.
• Brian Johnson takes over as Philly’s OC and likely play caller. Johnson hasn’t called plays at the NFL level, but we’re expecting this unit to mirror its 2022 version.
• Johnson, who Hurts has known since childhood, was Philly’s QBs coach the past two years.
• Hurts had February surgery to remove hardware from his ankle. The injury originally occurred in 2018 at Alabama.
  • The procedure was considered minor and won’t impact Hurts’ status this summer.
• ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported in June that the Eagles believe Hurts "can make another major jump" as an "elite precision-type pocket passer." They backed up that belief by handing him a mega-extension.