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Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Jalen Hurts
PHI

QB PHI

#10 Quarterback

368 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.59

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 12
Hurts would like to forget about his terrible throwing performance in the 13-7 loss to the Giants. He completed just 45% of his passes (14-for-31) and 3 INTs—including two inside the red zone.

He chalked up 77 yards on the ground to save some fantasy respectability, but his 129 yards through the air left a lot to be desired. It didn’t help that WR Jalen Reagor dropped a surefire TD with the game on the line that would’ve bailed out Hurts’ stat line.

The Eagles offense looked its best when Hurts was on the move. He gashed the Giants defense for multiple big runs, but when he was forced to stand in the pocket, the New York secondary feasted. He has been a solid starter this year, but we have to also remember that he is young and will have games like this from time to time. He will revisit Met Life Stadium this weekend with a game against the Jets before their Week 14 bye.
Week 10
Hurts delivered the #8 QB score of Week 10 (depending on your format), though it still fell short of any of his 1st 7 games. We knew the 2nd-year Eagle was likely to fall off his season-opening fantasy pace, though, and Sunday’s results marked a net positive for Hurts’ outlook.

There have been some wondering whether Philly would pull him in favor of Gardner Minshew at some point. Hurts topped 100 in passing rating in the win at Denver, marking the 1st time all year that he posted consecutive triple-digit passer ratings. And even if you don’t trust that antiquated stat, Hurts looked good doing it.

The 1st big strike came when he trusted a tightly covered DeVonta Smith with an end-zone deep ball in the 1st quarter. The rookie rewarded him by hauling it in and getting his butt down. Hurts added a 5-yard TD toss to Smith late in the 2nd quarter.

As usual, the QB also produced on the ground. He logged a season-high 14 rushing attempts (boosted a little by 2 kneel-downs to end the game), running for 53 yards. Hurts has topped 50 rushing yards in 4 straight games and logged 10+ attempts in 4 of his past 5 outings. The only time he hasn’t in that span came in the lopsided win at Detroit, which Hurts left at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Philly’s dramatic shift in run-pass split figures to continue challenging Hurts’ fantasy production. According to RBSDM.com, only Carolina has gone more run-heavy in “neutral” situations over the past 3 weeks. But Hurts will remain a key contributor even in the run game. So that doesn’t quite register as cause for concern the way it would for most QBs. It is, however, enough to make him sellable if you find an opportunity to upgrade your roster.
Week 9
The Eagles have decided to become a run first -- and almost only -- team the past 2 weeks.

After attempting only 14 throws in a blowout win at Detroit that saw him leave after 3 quarters, Hurts logged just 17 pass attempts in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. Throw in 1 sack, and that’s 31.6% pass vs. 39 rushing attempts. Even if we shift Hurts’ 6 scrambles to the passing side, we still find a 58-42 run-pass split.

Over the past 2 games, the Eagles have gone 64-36 in run-pass split. That marks a seismic shift vs. their 30-70 split through the 1st 7 contests.

HC Nick Sirianni likely realized that he needed to push the run game a little more after Philly struggled through a 2-5 start, and blowing out the Lions certainly didn’t hurt the Week 8 rushing game script. But the 64-36 split of the past 2 weeks almost definitely marks an over-correction.

Hurts wound up with a better fantasy day vs. L.A. than he had in Detroit, throwing for 162 yards and 1 TD, with 62 more yards on the ground. He also just missed adding a long completion to a wide-open Dallas Goedert in the 1st quarter. That play would have had a shot at reaching the end zone if completed.

Philly’s QB checked in a decent 14th at the position in a top-heavy fantasy-scoring week. Hurts also produced his highest passer rating of the season.

Hurts should remain solid to good for fantasy production the rest of the way, but he does face potential potholes in Denver and New Orleans the next 2 games. The bye also still awaits, in Week 14.
Week 8
Week 8 gave us a Hurts game to just throw out. He was bound to throw up a fantasy dud at some point. Everyone does, and Hurts’ specific brand of somehow finding a way to put up the points has looked especially fragile.

That said, the Detroit game itself shouldn’t stand as any particular warning. Hurts ran for 71 yards on 7 rushes. The Eagles amassed 350 total yards and 37 offensive points. It was mostly bad luck that his team suddenly ran the ball 46 times and passed only 16. Hurts completed 9 of his 14 throws for 103 yards before giving way to Gardner Minshew in the blowout victory. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard split 4 Philly rushing TDs. Before the Lions game, Hurts had 5 of the team’s 8 rushing scores for the season.

Now, even though Week 8 didn’t deliver us a specific message, it might have provided fantasy managers a moment to reflect. Hurts has tallied 65% of his fantasy points in the 2nd halves of games so far -- including the win at Detroit. He has scored 38% of points in the 4th quarter.

Further -- as mentioned earlier -- he has already run for 5 TDs. We only have 13 QB seasons all time of more than 5 rushing TDs. Just 5 of those have included more than 7 TDs. Hurts is on pace for the 3rd most QB rushing attempts in a season, trailing only 2019 Lamar Jackson and 2020 Lamar Jackson. But his TD pace is likely to slip some. And the passing has been inconsistent. Hurts has finished 3 of the past 4 games short of 200 yards passing and with 1 TD pass or fewer.

None of this is to say that Hurts is ready to crash. It’s just that we’d bet on him not scoring quite as well the rest of the way as he did through the 1st 7 weeks. That makes him a solid sell candidate, especially given a remaining schedule that ranks 4th toughest among QBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. It also doesn’t help Hurts’ value that Philly’s bye sits in Week 14.
Week 7
Hurts opened the Week 7 game with a short throw to Kenneth Gainwell that the rookie RB took 13 yards into the end zone. He closed it (3:50 left) with a short throw that WR Jalen Reagor took 17 yards into the end zone. And in between, he gave you another game you probably don’t want to watch.

Hurts completed just 18 of 34 passes against a defense that rates only 17th in pass DVOA. And even though Philly logged its most RB rushes (18) since Week 2, Hurts still led the team with 13 rushing attempts -- his personal high for the year.

Philly’s QB now sits 21st for the year in PFF passing grade -- 6th at the position in fantasy points per game.

You probably won’t want to watch the games, but you probably also shouldn’t think about sitting Hurts in fantasy.
Week 6
Another game, another example of Hurts spinning a poor real-life performance into fantasy gold. He completed just 12 of 26 passes (46.2%) against a Bucs secondary down 3 starters vs. its season-opening group. Hurts did find Zach Ertz for a 1st-quarter TD.

Otherwise, though, it was his 2 second-half rushing TDs that made the fantasy day. Both came on designed runs, from 6 and 2 yards out. According to Pro Football Focus, only Lamar Jackson has more designed runs than Hurts among QBs. And Hurts’ 25.9% carry rate on 108 total run snaps beats Jackson’s 24% rate.

That rushing is what should keep Hurts in your fantasy lineups. Just beware that any given game could find him frozen out of the end zone and thus potentially delivering far fewer points.
Week 5
Hurts continues to deliver for fantasy teams every week, topping 23 points in all 5 games so far.

He started off a bit slowly at Carolina, posting just 74 yards on 15-of-24 passing in the 1st half -- a miniscule 3.08 yards per attempt -- with 1 carry for no gain. Hurts did lose a 1st-quarter TD pass to WR DeVonta Smith for offensive PI, but it was clearly an illegal pick play. That meant Philly had to settle for a FG instead of the 4th-short TD.

The Philly passing game never really got going, as Hurts added just 124 more yards in the 2nd half and finished with 0 TDs plus an INT. But he ran in a pair of TDs.

And that’s what has made Hurts a must-start for fantasy lineups through 5 weeks. Even amid poor passing outings at Carolina and back in Week 2 vs. San Francisco, his rushing produced top-14 fantasy totals each time.
Week 4
A terrific fantasy day for Hurts in Week 4 could have been even better.

It’s tough to complain after he threw for 387 yards and 2 TDs, adding 47 yards on the ground for the position’s 3rd-best fantasy score of the week. But Hurts missed an open TE Zach Ertz in the end zone on the game’s 1st drive. He also lost TD passes to Dallas Goedert (in the 3rd quarter) and Ertz (4th) to penalties. Each of those 3 possessions instead ended with FGs.

Ultimately, we’ll certainly take the nice fantasy line from a guy who now ranks 4th among fantasy QBs for the season. Hurts is an every-week starter until further notice.
Week 3
Hurts came out throwing. On the Eagles’ 1st play from scrimmage he hit TE Dallas Goedert for a 38-yard gain. 2 plays later, he tried to take advantage of Cowboys CB Anthony Brown’s coverage problem with a shot toward the end zone for Jalen Reagor. Brown accepted the challenge by intercepting the pass at the 1-yard line. The 2nd half began similarly, with Hurts hitting Goedert for 28 yards and then throwing an INT that Dallas CB Trevon Diggs returned for a TD. The game was all but over at that point. Hurts finished with strong numbers (25 for 39, 326 yards, 2 TD passes and a team-high 9 carries for 35 yards). His 1st 2 INTs of the season hurt the Eagles far more than his fantasy owners.
He took a step backward in his development. After losing a shootout to Dallas QB Dak Prescott, Hurts probably won’t fare better head-to-head at home against Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. It’s likely that the Eagles will give their RBs more than the 3 carries they had at Dallas, so Hurts’ totals aren’t likely to be as good. In case you’re wondering, the options behind Hurts are veteran QBs Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew.
Week 2
Hurts turned in the league’s shortest average depth of target in Week 1. In Week 2, his 15.7-yard ADOT was highest -- 3.1 yards ahead of #2, Trevor Lawrence.

This points to varied game plans by HC Nick Sirianni. And he even talked after the game about how his plans vs. Atlanta and San Francisco called for attacking the edges rather than the middle of the field.

Hurts’ numbers didn’t look nearly as good against the 49ers, as he completed just 12 of 23 throws or 190 yards and no TDs. But he lost a deep TD connection with Jalen Reagor late in the 1st quarter after it was determined Reagor stepped on the sideline en route to his reception. DeVonta Smith also drew a PI call in the end zone near the middle of the 2nd quarter, on a drive that eventually found Philly failing to score.

Hurts missed a couple of other deep opportunities, but did hit Quez Watkins for a 91-yard gain in the 2nd quarter. It’s also worth noting that his 10-82-1 rushing line still lifted Hurts to a QB12 ranking for the week, despite the lackluster passing numbers. In his 5 full starts so far, Hurts has yet to finish with fewer than 62 yards on the ground.

We don’t see any reason for concern with Hurts as your lead fantasy QB coming out of this contest.
Week 1
Hurts was efficient in his debut. He ranked 2nd among all QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade (behind only Tom Brady) and led all starters in adjusted completion rate (90%).

It certainly didn’t hurt those numbers that Hurts also claimed the shortest average target depth in the league at just 3.6 yards. For some context, PFF had Alex Smith’s 5.4 as the shortest in that category last season among QBs with 100+ pass attempts.

We’d bet on Hurts’ ADOT climbing some, but we’d also bet on the Philly pass offense continuing to focus on shorter throws to set up speedy WRs and athletic RBs with run-after-catch opportunities.

Hurts’ efficiency in Atlanta produced 7.5 yards per pass attempt and TDs to DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert. The connection with Goedert was a particularly nice play, zipped through traffic (though it did require a diving catch). Of course, the QB also added 62 yards on 7 rushes.

Hurts will face many tougher defenses than Atlanta’s. But we’re excited to see him debut in a scheme that appears centered on its players’ strengths. And there’s nothing scary about the secondaries for San Francisco and Dallas the next 2 weeks.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hurts started Weeks 14 through 17 last season. He scored the 7th-most fantasy points across positions over that span (depending on your format), ranking 3rd among QBs. Hurts, of course, played only half of his 4th start before HC Doug Pederson inserted Nate Sudfeld.
  • Hurts ranked 11th among all players in total rushing yards over that span, trailing only Lamar Jackson among QBs.
  • Hurts also played most of the 2nd half in Week 13, after Carson Wentz got yanked from a loss at Green Bay. If we take that outing, his half-game in Week 17 and the 3 full starts, call it 4 games and extrapolate his numbers over a full 16, we get:
    • 4,112 passing
    • 24 TDs
    • 16 INTs
    • 1,204 rushing yards (on 204 carries)
    • 12 rushing TDs
    • 8 fumbles lost
  • That stat line would have given Hurts the most fantasy points at the position -- and 1 of the biggest fantasy totals ever.
  • Hurts did not fare well as a passer in his debut. His 79.7 overall Pro Football Focus grade for the relief appearance against the Packers was his highest single-game grade all year. That would have ranked just 16th among QBs as a full-season grade.
  • His grades for the 4 games he started: 48.5, 56.9, 49.3, 68.4.
  • Hurts posted poor passer ratings and on-target pass rates in nearly all situations, according to PFF. He particularly struggled throwing downfield. Hurts finished 1.9 percentage points ahead of the league average for accuracy rate on throws behind the line of scrimmage and 0.4 points ahead on throws 0-9 yards. He checked in 12.1 points below average on throws 10-19 yards downfield and 7.9 points below on throws of 20+.
  • Hurts proved much more accurate in college. Beyond his 69.5% completion rate as a senior at Oklahoma, Hurts ranked 7th nationally in PFF accuracy rate on throws 10+ yards downfield. He ranked 2nd only to Joe Burrow in overall grade that season.
  • In his study of Power 5 college QBs from 2011-19, Josh Hermsmeyer found that Hurts’ 2019 registered the 4th-best completion percent over expectation. The top 3: Russell Wilson’s 2011, Burrow’s 2019 and Justin Fields’ 2019.
  • Philly has changed over from the staff of HC Doug Pederson to 1st-time HC Nick Sirianni, who spent the past 3 years as Colts OC under Frank Reich.
  • Sirianni has spent 12 years as an offensive coach in the NFL across 3 staffs: 4 years in Kansas City (before Andy Reid), 5 with the Chargers, and 3 with Indy. Those offenses have averaged a 56.45% passing share. That would have been the 11th most run-heavy offense in the league last year.
  • The closest Sirianni has come to working with a QB as mobile as Jalen Hurts was Jacoby Brissett as Colts starter in 2019. (Brissett carried just 56 times in 15 games, averaging 4.1 yards per rush.)
  • The Eagles added WR DeVonta Smith with the 10th pick of the NFL Draft. The next most significant receiving addition was (arguably?) Round 5 RB Kenneth Gainwell.
  • Greg Ward led the 2020 Eagles in targets. Jalen Reagor (19) led Philly in targets over Hurts’ 3 full outings.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We obviously can’t just take the 4-game extrapolation mentioned above and call it a 2021 projection. That would be lazy and absurd. That stretch did show us the per-game ceiling we’re working with here, though. Hurts was a top-scoring fantasy QB in an offense that spent most of last season struggling, with a crappy crew of pass-catchers and despite performing poorly as a passer. His college days showed us that he has at least some passing upside beyond what he showed last year -- perhaps much more. The rushing is the big selling point here, though. Before his limited run last year, Hurts spent 2019 as the leading rusher in an Oklahoma backfield that sported Trey Sermon, Rhamondre Stevenson and Kennedy Brooks (who ran ahead of both those NFL-drafted RBs.) HC Nick Sirianni says Hurts will need to compete for the starting job, but Philly imported only Joe Flacco to compete. If they didn’t believe in Hurts, then the Eagles could have drafted Justin Fields -- and/or competed for a stronger veteran QB in an abnormally strong free-agent market. Hurts doesn’t need to be terrific as a real-life QB to present big fantasy upside this season.

Even with an ADP just inside the top 10, Hurts can still outscore his draft position. He’s not quite a strong draft value at QB8-9, but he should be in play for you on draft day.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Eagles GM Howie Roseman threw his support behind QB Jalen Hurts as the team's starter in Wednesday's end-of-season press conference. "We talk about Jalen and the growth he had, really as a first-year starter and second-year player and leading this team to the playoffs," Roseman said. "I’m tremendously impressed by his work ethic and his leadership. The last time we talked was during camp and we said we wanted to see him take the bull by the horn, and he certainly did that." Hurts completed 61.3% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt with 16 TDs vs. 9 INTs in 2021, ranking 22nd among 31 qualifiers in QB Rating. He also led all QBs with 782 rushing yards and 10 TDs to finish 10th in fantasy points. We'll see if Philly's actions this offseason match Roseman's comments. If Hurts enters 2022 as the starter, he'll be a lower-end QB1 in fantasy drafts.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (ankle) is inactive for tonight’s game vs. Dallas. In his place, Gardner Minshew will make his 2nd start of the season.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (ankle) isn't listed on the final Week 15 injury report. He put in 3 full practices to close the week and should at least be close to 100% for Tuesday night's game vs. Washington.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (ankle) is listed as questionable for this weekend's game vs. Washington. He was limited on Wednesday and Thursday but put in a full practice on Friday. That suggests that Hurts is likely to play on Sunday -- but we're also expecting his rushing ability to be limited as he returns from what was reportedly a high-ankle sprain.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (ankle) remained limited in Thursday's practice. Reportedly dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Hurts' status for Sunday's game vs. Washington remains uncertain. Check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

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