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Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Jalen Hurts
PHI

QB PHI

#9 Quarterback

376 Projected Points

ADP: 8.3
Bye: 14
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.59

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#9 Quarterback

376 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
8.3 329/540 3888 23 13 728

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

304.6

DS Projection

376

Consensus

38 other sites
53.25

High Ceiling

443.7

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hurts started Weeks 14 through 17 last season. He scored the 7th-most fantasy points across positions over that span (depending on your format), ranking 3rd among QBs. Hurts, of course, played only half of his 4th start before HC Doug Pederson inserted Nate Sudfeld.
  • Hurts ranked 11th among all players in total rushing yards over that span, trailing only Lamar Jackson among QBs.
  • Hurts also played most of the 2nd half in Week 13, after Carson Wentz got yanked from a loss at Green Bay. If we take that outing, his half-game in Week 17 and the 3 full starts, call it 4 games and extrapolate his numbers over a full 16, we get:
    • 4,112 passing
    • 24 TDs
    • 16 INTs
    • 1,204 rushing yards (on 204 carries)
    • 12 rushing TDs
    • 8 fumbles lost
  • That stat line would have given Hurts the most fantasy points at the position -- and 1 of the biggest fantasy totals ever.
  • Hurts did not fare well as a passer in his debut. His 79.7 overall Pro Football Focus grade for the relief appearance against the Packers was his highest single-game grade all year. That would have ranked just 16th among QBs as a full-season grade.
  • His grades for the 4 games he started: 48.5, 56.9, 49.3, 68.4.
  • Hurts posted poor passer ratings and on-target pass rates in nearly all situations, according to PFF. He particularly struggled throwing downfield. Hurts finished 1.9 percentage points ahead of the league average for accuracy rate on throws behind the line of scrimmage and 0.4 points ahead on throws 0-9 yards. He checked in 12.1 points below average on throws 10-19 yards downfield and 7.9 points below on throws of 20+.
  • Hurts proved much more accurate in college. Beyond his 69.5% completion rate as a senior at Oklahoma, Hurts ranked 7th nationally in PFF accuracy rate on throws 10+ yards downfield. He ranked 2nd only to Joe Burrow in overall grade that season.
  • In his study of Power 5 college QBs from 2011-19, Josh Hermsmeyer found that Hurts’ 2019 registered the 4th-best completion percent over expectation. The top 3: Russell Wilson’s 2011, Burrow’s 2019 and Justin Fields’ 2019.
  • Philly has changed over from the staff of HC Doug Pederson to 1st-time HC Nick Sirianni, who spent the past 3 years as Colts OC under Frank Reich.
  • Sirianni has spent 12 years as an offensive coach in the NFL across 3 staffs: 4 years in Kansas City (before Andy Reid), 5 with the Chargers, and 3 with Indy. Those offenses have averaged a 56.45% passing share. That would have been the 11th most run-heavy offense in the league last year.
  • The closest Sirianni has come to working with a QB as mobile as Jalen Hurts was Jacoby Brissett as Colts starter in 2019. (Brissett carried just 56 times in 15 games, averaging 4.1 yards per rush.)
  • The Eagles added WR DeVonta Smith with the 10th pick of the NFL Draft. The next most significant receiving addition was (arguably?) Round 5 RB Kenneth Gainwell.
  • Greg Ward led the 2020 Eagles in targets. Jalen Reagor (19) led Philly in targets over Hurts’ 3 full outings.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We obviously can’t just take the 4-game extrapolation mentioned above and call it a 2021 projection. That would be lazy and absurd. That stretch did show us the per-game ceiling we’re working with here, though. Hurts was a top-scoring fantasy QB in an offense that spent most of last season struggling, with a crappy crew of pass-catchers and despite performing poorly as a passer. His college days showed us that he has at least some passing upside beyond what he showed last year -- perhaps much more. The rushing is the big selling point here, though. Before his limited run last year, Hurts spent 2019 as the leading rusher in an Oklahoma backfield that sported Trey Sermon, Rhamondre Stevenson and Kennedy Brooks (who ran ahead of both those NFL-drafted RBs.) HC Nick Sirianni says Hurts will need to compete for the starting job, but Philly imported only Joe Flacco to compete. If they didn’t believe in Hurts, then the Eagles could have drafted Justin Fields -- and/or competed for a stronger veteran QB in an abnormally strong free-agent market. Hurts doesn’t need to be terrific as a real-life QB to present big fantasy upside this season.

Even with an ADP just inside the top 10, Hurts can still outscore his draft position. He’s not quite a strong draft value at QB8-9, but he should be in play for you on draft day.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Just a few minutes after it was reported that the Dolphins traded down from #3 to #12, we learned that the Fins made another trade -- this time with the Eagles -- to move from #12 back up to #6. Philly is picking up Miami's 2022 1st-rounder to make that move down. Our guess is the Dolphins are targeting 1 of the top rookie WRs -- Ja'Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith -- and figure they'll be able to get 1 at #6. The Eagles, meanwhile, are now less likely to land a QB in the 1st round. That's good news for QB Jalen Hurts' 2021 fantasy value.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

ESPN's Chris Mortensen hears that Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie has told his front office and coaching staff to "prioritize making [QB Jalen] Hurts successful in 2021 as opposed to creating a true competition." Hurts was only a 2nd-round pick last spring and was uneven in 4 starts as a rookie. The Eagles might certainly be tempted to add a QB with the 6th overall pick of this April's draft. But if they don't -- as Mortensen suggests will be the case -- Hurts will be locked in as the 2021 starter and a high-upside fantasy option thanks to his rushing ability.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Just in case you were wondering, Eagles HC Doug Pederson confirmed Monday that he'll start QB Jalen Hurts next Sunday against the Cowboys. This was even more obvious than last week's "decision" after Hurts threw for 338 yards and 3 TDs and ran for another in Sunday's loss at Arizona. Hurts looks like a strong fantasy starter in Week 16 against Dallas' weak defense. No word yet from anonymous sources on how this makes Carson Wentz feel.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

To the surprise of no one, Eagles HC Doug Pederson announced Monday that he will stick with rookie QB Jalen Hurts as his starter for the Week 15 visit to Arizona. Hurts, of course, piloted Philadelphia to a surprising win over the Saints in Week 14. His 106 rushing yards propelled the rookie to a top-12 fantasy week at the position. That rushing upside always helps a QB, but Hurts will also present risk as a Week 15 fantasy option. Pro Football Focus graded him 36th among 37 passers for Week 14 -- and even just 7th in rushing among QBs. Hurts will face a Cardinals defense worse than the Saints unit he just beat, so he's certainly capable of another QB1 week. But keep the risk -- including that it will be just his 2nd pro start -- in mind as you make your Week 15 lineup decisions. We'll have our rankings for the week on the site Tuesday early afternoon.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is expected to start for the remainder of the season, "barring injury or disastrous play," ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports. We'll see how the rookie fares in his 1st start today. He's just a QB2 vs. a tough Saints defense but could be a QB1 option next week at Arizona and especially in Week 16 at Dallas.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

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