Aidan O'Connell - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

O’Connell didn’t embarrass himself as a rookie last year and closed with three strong outings among his last four.

It gives him a shot to win the starting job this season, especially after the Raiders only added QB Gardner Minshew.

We’ll watch that battle throughout August. The winner will have a nice trio of weapons to work with in WR Davante Adams, WR Jakobi Meyers, and TE Brock Bowers.

But O’Connell offers no rushing upside and would be a long shot to ascend beyond lower-end QB2 status.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Raiders took O’Connell in the fourth round of last year’s draft after a four-year career at Purdue that produced a 66.7% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, and 65 TDs vs. 30 INTs.
• O’Connell was excellent in the preseason last year.
  • 69.4% completion rate
  • 3 TDs vs. 0 INTs
  • Second among 68 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade
• Injuries to QB Jimmy Garoppolo allowed O’Connell to make 10 starts as a rookie last year. His numbers in those starts:
  • 61.5% completion rate
  • 6.5 yards per attempt
  • 214 passing yards per game
  • 1.1 TDs per game
• His fantasy-scoring average in those 10 starts would have ranked 31st among QBs on the season.
• O’Connell’s three most productive games of the season came among the final four weeks:
  • 248-4-0 vs. the Chargers in Week 15
  • 299-2-0 vs. the Colts in Week 17
  • 244-2-0 vs. the Broncos in Week 18
• Among 45 qualifying QBs, O’Connell ranked:
  • 29th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • 38th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected
• He climbed to 14th among 39 qualifiers in PFF passing grade over those final four games.

What to Expect in 2024

• The release of QB Jimmy Garoppolo leaves O’Connell to compete with QB Gardner Minshew for the Raiders’ starting job.
• Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million contract with $15 million guaranteed in free agency. That deal makes him the early favorite for the Week 1 job.
• O’Connell beat Minshew in PFF passing grade last year. Minshew edged O’Connell in completion rate over expected.
• After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
  • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
  • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
  • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
• Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
  • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
  • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
• The Raiders used the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft on TE Brock Bowers. WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers return to give Vegas a strong trio of pass-catchers.