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Aidan O'Connell - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAidan O'Connell's Basic Stats

Aidan O'Connell
ADP: N/A
Bye: 10
Experience: 1
Age: 25.8
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.97

Aidan O'Connell's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
221.7 1.21 0.7 2.8 12.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
214.4 1.2 0.8 4.6 12.4

Aidan O'Connell's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#36 Quarterback

51.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 80.8/130.4 886.8 4.84 2.8 6.4 11.2 1.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAidan O'Connell's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

O’Connell didn’t embarrass himself as a rookie last year and closed with three strong outings among his last four.

It gives him a shot to win the starting job this season, especially after the Raiders only added QB Gardner Minshew.

We’ll watch that battle throughout August. The winner will have a nice trio of weapons to work with in WR Davante Adams, WR Jakobi Meyers, and TE Brock Bowers.

But O’Connell offers no rushing upside and would be a long shot to ascend beyond lower-end QB2 status.

What We Learned Last Year

  • The Raiders took O’Connell in the fourth round of last year’s draft after a four-year career at Purdue that produced a 66.7% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, and 65 TDs vs. 30 INTs.
  • O’Connell was excellent in the preseason last year.
    • 69.4% completion rate
    • 3 TDs vs. 0 INTs
    • Second among 68 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • Injuries to QB Jimmy Garoppolo allowed O’Connell to make 10 starts as a rookie last year. His numbers in those starts:
    • 61.5% completion rate
    • 6.5 yards per attempt
    • 214 passing yards per game
    • 1.1 TDs per game
  • His fantasy-scoring average in those 10 starts would have ranked 31st among QBs on the season.
  • O’Connell’s three most productive games of the season came among the final four weeks:
    • 248-4-0 vs. the Chargers in Week 15
    • 299-2-0 vs. the Colts in Week 17
    • 244-2-0 vs. the Broncos in Week 18
  • Among 45 qualifying QBs, O’Connell ranked:
    • 29th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
    • 38th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected
  • He climbed to 14th among 39 qualifiers in PFF passing grade over those final four games.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The release of QB Jimmy Garoppolo leaves O’Connell to compete with QB Gardner Minshew for the Raiders’ starting job.
  • Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million contract with $15 million guaranteed in free agency. That deal makes him the early favorite for the Week 1 job.
  • O’Connell beat Minshew in PFF passing grade last year. Minshew edged O’Connell in completion rate over expected.
  • After a deal with Kliff Kingsbury fell through, the Raiders hired Luke Getsy as their new OC in February.
    • Getsy spent the last two years as Bears OC, where Chicago ranked 28th and 20th in total yards and 23rd and 18th in points.
    • The Bears ranked 32nd in pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected in 2022; 31st in pass rate and 27th in PROE last year.
    • Those offenses were predominantly quarterbacked by Justin Fields, which undoubtedly skewed the offense toward the run. We’re projecting a more balanced attack from Getsy in Vegas. It’s worth noting that he was the Packers’ QB coach and passing-game coordinator before his stint with the Bears.
  • Antonio Pierce returns as HC after taking over for the final nine games of last year. The Raiders ran it a bit more under Pierce than they did under previous HC Josh McDaniels.
    • Vegas went from a 61.2% pass rate in eight games under McDaniels to 57.3% pass under Pierce.
    • The Raiders registered a -1% Pass Rate Over Expected under McDaniels vs. -3% under Pierce.
  • The Raiders used the 13th overall pick of this year’s draft on TE Brock Bowers. WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers return to give Vegas a strong trio of pass-catchers.

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Gardner Minshew, QB LVR

4:59pm EDT 3/11/24

Is Gardner Minshew the Raiders' new starter?

The Raiders are signing QB Gardner Minshew to a 2-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. That contract doesn't guarantee that Minshew will be the team's 2024 starter, but it at least makes him the favorite. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo set to be released, QB Aidan O'Connell currently stands as Minshew's competition. We'll see if the Raiders add anything else significant this offseason. They currently hold the 13th overall pick of April's draft. Minshew is good enough to keep an NFL offense on track but will not be an exciting fantasy option in Vegas. He averaged 229 passing yards and 1.1 TDs in 13 full games for the Colts last season. The Minshew addition does bring some stability to the fantasy outlooks of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer.

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Raiders HC Antonio Pierce said from the Combine that the team's starting QB job is Aidan O'Connell's to lose, per Levi Edwards of the team's official website. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo expected to be released within the next couple of weeks and Brian Hoyer the only other QB on the roster, we wouldn't expect Pierce to say anything different. O'Connell was just ok as a fourth-round rookie last year, completing 62.1% of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt with 12 TDs vs. seven INTs. He ranked 23rd among 30 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. We fully expect the Raiders to make a relatively significant addition at QB this offseason -- potentially a trade for QB Justin Fields or a drafting a first-round rookie. We're betting against O'Connell leading Vegas in 2024 passing attempts and wouldn't target him in early best-ball drafts.

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QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been suspended two games for violating the NFL's Performance Enhancing Substances Policy, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Garoppolo reportedly used a banned medication without having an exception from the league. He will not appeal the suspension and will miss the first two games of the 2024 campaign. Schefter also confirms that the Raiders will release Garoppolo before the fifth day of the new league year in mid-March, saving the team an $11.25 million roster bonus. Garoppolo will be able to participate in the offseason program and training camp with his new team, despite the suspension. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be left with QBs Aidan O'Connell and Brian Hoyer. They'll certainly add to that group in free agency and/or the draft.

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Kliff Kingsbury has pulled his name out of consideration for the Raiders' OC job, according to his agent. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that contract talks between the two sides broke down late in the process. We'll see who the Raiders eventually land on as OC under HC Antonio Pierce. Kingsbury, meanwhile, is a "leading candidate" for the Commanders' OC job, per Schefter.

View all Davante Adams Shark Bites »

The Raiders are set to hire Kliff Kingsbury as their new OC under HC Antonio Pierce, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Kingsbury had an underwhelming tenure as Cardinals HC from 2019 to 2022, going 28-37-1 over those four seasons. He landed two of those teams inside the top 8 in total yards, but none cracked the top 10 in points. Kingsbury at least deployed fast-paced attacks, with three of his four offenses finishing top 3 in pace. We'll see exactly how Kingsbury meshes with the defensive-minded Pierce. The Raiders offense has some big questions to answer this offseason, with RB Josh Jacobs set to hit free agency and QB Jimmy Garoppolo a strong release candidate.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Aidan O'Connell, QB LVR
Dynasty MVP 48.9
Position Rank #68 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
148
247
479
Dynasty Write-up
An old rookie at 25, O'Connell was thrown into the fire following Jimmy Garoppolo’s injuries/benching. We’re selling the Purdue product as Vegas’ long-term answer.
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