Andy Dalton - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Jameis Winston tore his left ACL in Week 8 last season. He was back on the practice field for OTAs.
• Dalton signed a 1-year, $3 million contract with the Saints on March 29 (a little more than 2 weeks after the start of free agency).
• New HC Dennis Allen said Taysom Hill will be focusing on TE heading into the coming season.
• The Saints expect WR Michael Thomas back from the ankle injury that cost him all of 2021 and most of 2020. The team also drafted WR Chris Olave 11th overall and signed WR Jarvis Landry in free agency. No Saint collected more than 16.7% target share last season.
• Dalton got just 2 starts for the Bears before a knee bruise accelerated the switch to Justin Fields.
• After producing a solid 4.8% passing-TD rate across his 1st 8 seasons – and going 5% or better 8 times – Dalton has slipped to just 3.5% over the past 3 years. None of those 3 seasons has seen him eclipse 4.2%.
• Dalton’s yards per attempt is also down over the same stretches: 6.5 vs. 7.2.
• Dalton produced a career-worst 3.8% INT rate in 2021.
• The 2021 Saints ran the league’s 3rd most run-heavy offense, rushing on 48.5% of offensive snaps. They were 5th most run heavy in 2020.
• Sean Payton is gone, but the OC and passing-game coordinator/QBs coach return.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Dalton is relevant because Jameis Winston is coming off an ACL tear … and fairly erratic even when healthy. There’s no guarantee the Saints would keep Taysom Hill at TE if Winston were to go down, but that’s the stated plan for now. As Saints starter, Dalton would work with a much better set of pass-catchers than last year’s New Orleans offense sported. That makes him an interesting bench stash for deep superflex and 2-QB setups.